[Willie Bee]

2005 Record: 74-88, 4th in AL East

Lee Mazzilli’s run as manager sure didn’t last long, huh? After getting the team off to a hot start the first few months, Baltimore went into a tailspin and a lot was attributed to Mazzilli losing control of the clubhouse. But that’s all water in the harbour, as they say, as Sam Perlozzo, who maybe should’ve been the choice over Mazzilli in the first place, takes over with his staff to hopefully turn things around.

Joining him on the staff is longtime Atlanta pitching coach Leo Mazzone. As big of a job as he has, bullpen coach Rick Dempsey’s might be equally important. The O’s have some talented arms, of that there is no question. And the spotlight will now be on Mazzone to prove his previous accolades.

The rotation appears set in stone with Kris Benson, over from the Mets in the Jorge Julio-John Maine trade, followed by Eric Bedard, Rodrigo Lopez, Bruce Chen and Daniel Cabrera. Benson has the contract and is being listed as the staff ace. But I’m not buying into that just like I’m not buying into his loudmouth wife’s casino. Lopez will be looking to bounce back from an inconsistent 2005 after posting solid numbers in 2004. Bedard is very capable of getting things in gear once and for all under the tutelage of Mazzone.

But the two pitchers I’m most interested in this season are Cabrera and Chen. Mazzone and Chen are going to have to get along, something that didn’t always happen when Chen started his career as a Brave. But all indications are the light has finally come on for Chen. Cabrera has the best raw talent on the staff and if Mazzone can somehow harness his control and teach him a good change, the big Dominican could be dominating. Hayden Penn is the top candidate to fill in as a starter if and when the need arises. Adam Loewen could also get the call though ideally the club would love to see him get one more full season in the minors.

Though the rotation has a few question marks, it’s not nearly as uncertain as the bullpen right now. Young Chris Ray has all the tools to be a major league closer and has looked solid this spring. But you can’t help but expect some growing pains shoving him into the role without a little more MLB experience. LaTroy Hawkins came over in a winter deal to either setup or close; the former would be a better slot for him even if Ray isn’t ready to snuff ninth frames. Career minor league closer Todd Williams was a pleasant find for the O’s a couple of years back and is being counted on to provide some 7th-8th inning work. That is if a sore right shoulder that recently cropped up doesn’t prove serious.

Speaking of shoulders, Aaron Rakers was in line for middle-inning or possibly setup work. But that is in doubt now since he’s having shoulder discomfort. Eric DuBose is a middle relief or lefty candidate in the Baltimore pen. Tim Byrdak is the top candidate to be the true lefty specialist. Arms belonging to Jim Brower, Ricky Bottalico, John Halama and Vic Darensbourg are in camp, none of whom blow my skirt up.

Along with ridding troublemakers Sydney Ponson and Jorge Julio from the mound corps, the Orioles also jettisoned distractions Rafael Palmeiro and Sammy Sosa from the offense. Enter catcher Ramon Hernandez and 1B Kevin Millar via free agency along with outfielder Corey Patterson from a trade with the Cubs. How much that trio can help lift an offense that finished near the bottom of the AL in scoring is yet to be seen. Signing both Hernandez and Millar really made no sense to me since putting them in the lineup encroaches on playing time for both Javy Lopez and Jay Gibbons.

Lopez could see time behind the plate, at first and as DH. Millar figures to DH almost exclusively, with Gibbons either at first or in the outfield. The keys to how this all works out might be Patterson and Luis Matos.

Miguel Tejada and Melvin Mora are cemented on the left side of the infield at short and third. Brian Roberts, who was an MVP candidate the first three months of the year, will be at second as soon as he’s 100% from the horrible elbow injury he suffered. Getting him back at the top of the batting order as soon as possible is imperative. Infield backups include Desi Relaford and Chris Gomez. David Newhan, who is having a solid spring so far, could wear many gloves this season playing the infield and outfield.

Patterson should be the regular centerfielder, and his talent potential suggests he’s a good bet to have a nice rebound in 2006. Matos will start out backing him up in center when a lefty is on the mound, and maybe play some in the corner spots. Veteran Jeff Conine is penciled in at left, plus can spot at first or DH. Nick Markakis is the future stud in the outfield, and that future could be sooner than most thought a month ago after Richard Hidalgo walked out on the team during spring training.

Even though I like most of the changes Baltimore made from the All-Star break last year forward, fourth in the AL East is the best the Orioles can look for this season. And even fourth isn’t a sure bet with the expected improvement by Tampa.

Key Performer(s): Perlozzo, Mazzone and the rest of the coaching staff.

Camp Question(s): Getting Roberts back as soon as possible, finding a way to have both Hernandez and Javy Lopez in the lineup together, and deciding on bullpen slots, especially closer.

My Play: The math says low-to-mid 70s for the win column. The number 73 came out for my average, with the o/u lines set at 74-74½ this morning. Under is definitely safer than over.

[bigboydan]

this is one team that i found very hard to predict this season. even though i feel there pitching staff should be much improved with mazzone being there now, i still question it.

[Willie Bee]

It's unrealistic to think Mazzone can turn the entire staff around, especially in a season, just as it's unrealistic to expect Atlanta's staff to fall apart overnight without Mazzone. The Birds already had a pretty well respected pitching coach in Ray Miller.

But I do think Mazzone will be able to reach a few of them for some fairly quick results. Cabrera was awesome last night for the Dominicans facing a Venezuelan lineup that was as strong as many MLB scorecards.

[Willie Bee]

Pinnacle still offers the break at 74 - o(+100) and u(-116).

The Greek holds at 74½ with the over (-105) and under (-115).

[Willie Bee]

My Play: The math says low-to-mid 70s for the win column. The number 73 came out for my average, with the o/u lines set at 74-74½ this morning. Under is definitely safer than over.

Hitting the 50-game mark at 22-28, Baltimore is on target for 71-72 wins this year if they keep their current pace up.

With nothing to suggest they will go on a tear and exceed that pace, everyone holding under tickets for Oriole wins this season should be feeling pretty good about their investment.

The offense has been ok so far, ranking eighth in the AL with 248 runs scored and ninth in OPS. Miguel Tejada, Ramon Hernandez and Melvin Mora have been leading the way with their bats. And Brian Roberts is back atop the order to hopefully give the club more spark.

The mound has been a disaster, and the notion that new pitching coach Leo Mazzone would have an immediate effect has long since been round-filed. A 5.60 staff ERA is good enough for last place, but Baltimore is saved from that distinction by the lowly, pathetic Kansas City arms. The staff has allowed 65 homers and issued 220 free passes in just over 437 innings, good for last in the American League.

Young Chris Ray has been very effective in the closer's role, with Kurt Birkins, Chris Britton and Sendy Rleal showing signs of providing good setup and middle relief.

But Kris Benson's 4.64 ERA leads all starters on the staff, and that's not good. Eric Bedard has come crashing down to earth after a strong start. Daniel Cabrera, who had some horrible outings early on, is on the DL. Rodrigo Lopez, while solid in his most recent start, has been lit up like the White House Christmas tree most of the season.

After a win in the Bronx on April 21 left them 11-7, Baltimore has proceeded to go 11-21 since then. After closing out their series with the Angels today in Anaheim, the O's come home to take on the Devil Rays, Yankees and Blue Jays. They'll need to beat more than just the Rays during that homestand if the Orioles want to start turning things around.