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2006 Preview - Texas Rangers
2005 Record: 79-83, 3rd in AL West
After an 18-win gain from 71 in 2003 to 89 in 2004, the Rangers slid backwards in 2005, dropping 10 dubya’s to wind up a distant third in the AL West. The truth is Texas probably wasn’t quite that good in 2004 and not that bad in 2005. And my opinion is they will be much better this year, due in part to the mound additions over the winter, and will present a credible challenge in the American League West.
The Rangers’ offense has been and still is their strength. Mark Teixeira is a solid AL MVP candidate at first with a superb bat and underrated glove. The left side of the infield has Michael Young at short and Hank Blalock at third, with both of them strong offensive threats. Blalock stumbled a bit in 2005 and some pundits are trying to write him off. What they forget, I’m guessing, is he is just 25 and definitely has his career year(s) in front of him. Young is a better defender at second, his natural position, and I suspect he might move back there at some point in the future.
Second base is one of the few question marks for the Rangers' position players after dealing Alfonso Soriano. Whoever wins the job will at least provide a substantial upgrade defensively over Soriano. Rookie Ian Kinsler, who was moved from short to second a year ago at Triple-A, is favored by some though I think Texas might be better off letting him start in the minors again and then calling him up should D’Angelo Jimenez or Mark DeRosa falter. DeRosa can provide above-average utility play as a backup. Phil Nevin, expected to get most of his time at DH this season, is the backup at 1B. Marshall ‘6 Fly’ McDougall is rehabbing offseason wrist surgery and not expected to be available until after the season starts. He is someone to watch; if the Rangers get the itch, they could bring him up for third base and dangle Blalock for more pitching.
Texas has two pretty good catchers that few people seem to know anything about. Rod Barajas is one of the few in the lineup whose stats are not affected by home-road schedules. He’s got Gerald Laird behind him, and Laird brings a good mitt behind the dish and the potential for a better-than-average bat as far as catchers go.
Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix are joined in the outfield by Brad Wilkerson who came from Washington in the Soriano trade. Mench has become a far better player, both at the plate and in the field, than I imagined when I first saw him play as a minor leaguer. He’s got 30-HR, 100-RBI potential in this lineup. Nix simply has to show more discipline at the plate to be effective. Wilkerson was always underrated while with Montreal/Washington, and playing in a better park for hitters this year has me thinking a return to the 30-HR level plus another 25-30 points on his batting average. David Dellucci will DH some and spot the outfielders a day off from time to time. Gary Matthews Jr., Jason Botts and Adam Hyzdu are all vying for backup slots. All three, plus Nevin, could also be used as trade bait.
Pitching has been a sore spot in North Texas since Nolan Ryan threw his last pitch in 1993. Kenny Rogers, arguably their top pitcher since then, shoved his way out of the picture, pardon the pun. Chan Ho Park proved to be a worse investment for owner Tom Hicks than the $252 million he gave Alex Rodriguez. Draft picks like RA Dickey and Colby Lewis proved more hype than help. Even former pitching coach Orel Hershiser is gone now after never being able to do much with what he was given to work with.
Enter new pitching guru Mark Conner and a new batch of arms to work with. Texas signed 2005 AL ERA leader Kevin Millwood over the winter and dealt for Adam Eaton and Vincente Padilla from San Diego and Philly. None of those three are a threat to Nolan Ryan in the record books, and I admit to having some misgivings about trading away Chris Young in the Padres trade. But all three of those starters should give the Rangers a better top of the rotation than they’ve had in a while. That leaves Conner and manager Buck Showalter with the task of finding arms for the end of the rotation with Kameron Loe, Edison Volquez and Juan Dominguez the leading candidates until lefty Brian Anderson comes back from elbow surgery around midseason.
If Eaton performs well, my reservations on the Young trade will be for naught. If Eaton and Akinori Otsuka both pitch well, then Texas will have made an excellent deal. There is a little concern about closer Francisco Cordero’s shoulder right now, so Otsuka’s importance can’t be stressed enough. He’s being counted on to be the #1 setup arm in front of Cordero, something the Rangers must have. If Cordero goes down, then Otsuka becomes even more critical. There is a long list of relievers to go through to fill the innings in front of Cordero and Otsuka. Names I like the best are Joaquin Benoit, Erasmo Ramirez, CJ Wilson, Antonio Alfonseca and Rich Bauer. Plus keep your eyes on sidewinder Scott Feldman and tiny southpaw Fabio Castro this spring.
Ok, this is admittedly a stretch. And my gut feelings in the past have turned out to be nothing more than a case of acid indigestion on occasion. Perhaps I’m putting too much weight on the additions of starters Millwood and Eaton. But after looking at the numbers, the schedule and checking everything twice, I honestly see the Rangers having a good chance to win the AL West this season.
Key Performer(s): The rotation, especially Millwood and Eaton.
Camp Question(s): Settling the second base job, culling through names for the #4-#5 starters’ jobs and assembling the bullpen behind Cordero and Otsuka.
My Play: After I ran my numbers a few times and kept hitting 88-90 wins, I thought for sure I had something terribly wrong in my formula. But with the upgrades they have made to the rotation, it really isn’t a stretch to think this team can get back to the upper-80s in the win column where they were in 2004. I’m all over the o81 at Pinnacle.
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Originally Posted by Willie Bee
