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2006 Preview - Chicago Cubs
2005 Record: 79-83, 4th in NL Central
Some of the offseason commentary about baseball centered on the Red Sox and White Sox each breaking long, long World Series droughts the past two seasons. Could 2006 provide the same ending for the Cubs, was the question? Maybe. Stranger things have happened in the sports world and in baseball particularly. And with so many already writing them off after building the Cubs up the past few years, that might take a little pressure off Chicago’s Northside Nine. But they still face an uphill battle.
The Cubs made quite a few changes this winter, most notably in the outfield. Corky Sosa is long gone and the starting outfield from 2005 --- Corey Patterson, Jeromy Burnitz and Todd Hollandsworth --- are also elsewhere. In their place will be Juan Pierre, acquired via trade from Florida, Jacques Jones, a free agent from Minnesota, and Matt Murton, who came up from the minors in the second half of ’05. Backing that trio up will be two more newcomers, Marquis Grissom and John Mabry, both of whom came on board as free agents from San Francisco and St. Louis respectively. Pierre and Murton should be fine, but there are doubts surrounding Jones. An above average defender, Jones’ offense has really dropped off the last couple of seasons. In addition to backing up the two outfield corners, Mabry can also play the two infield corners. If nothing else, by signing Mabry the Cubs at least weakened the bench of their rivals in St. Louis.
The infield returns virtually intact with the exception of Ronny Cedeño being counted on as the regular shortstop. Perhaps he can repeat the .300 average that he posted in 40-odd games last season. But chances are he’ll hit closer to .260. Derrek Lee, coming off a tremendous season, will again supply nice defense at first and a 30+ HR, 100+ RBI bat in the heart of the lineup. Third sacker Aramis Ramirez is also being counted on for power and run production, and will likely hit fourth behind Lee. However, Ramirez is not a deft fielder and he’s likely to miss 20+ games with assorted aches and pains.
Picking just who might be the regular second baseman for the Cubs right now is something akin to solving an Agatha Christie whodunit after skimming over the first chapter. Todd Walker has the best stick but his glove is suspect, and that’s being kind. Add in the fact he’s missed more than 80 games the last two years, either through injury or being in manager Dusty Baker’s doghouse, and he might not be the regular even if he does get the Opening Day nod. Jerry Hairston is a little better defensively and could be a nice #2 hitter in front of Lee. Hairston can also play in the outfield, increasing his value as a bench player. Rumors are swirling, however, that the Cubs would love to deal either Walker or Hairston, and have inquired about bringing in Tony Graffanino. So stay tuned on this as Spring Training plays out. Neifi Perez is also still around to give Chicago a solid veteran to plug in either at second or short if the need arises, as I suspect it will.
Behind the plate is Michele Barrett, er, Michael Barrett, I mean. Sorry, just couldn’t resist interjecting a little Astros-Cubs humor into the piece. He’s one of the better catchers in the NL after repeating his 16 HR, 60+ RBI and .800 OPS the past two seasons, and will be backed up by Henry Blanco.
It is the mound that has attracted most of the attention the past few seasons and this winter specifically. Health concerns for Mark Prior and Kerry Wood dominate Cubs news, and for good reason. Prior’s elbow is the focus after suffering a little internal damage last spring and then having the joint fractured by a line drive in late May. Wood has shoulder woes and even pitched from the pen for a while last season trying to get back to strength. Now comes minor surgery on his right knee. This probably means a mid-May return, at best, is likely.
Make no mistake; Prior and Wood are crucial to this team. But what many seem to forget is the Cubs still have solid pitchers who aren’t named Prior or Wood. Carlos Zambrano, his emotional immaturity aside, is a strong pitcher. As long as Baker doesn’t insist on ruining him with long outings, Zambrano will be fine. Greg Maddux, though his ERA has slowly risen over the past two seasons pitching half the time in Wrigley, is still a solid 200+ IP arm. The fifth slot in the rotation will come down to a battle between Jerome Williams and Glendon Rusch. Chicago would probably like to have Rusch in the role just to give them a southpaw in the rotation though he does have more bullpen experience than Williams. If Wade Miller is ready by mid-to-late May, the Rusch/Williams dilemma could be a moot point. And with Wood expected to miss time early on, both Rusch and Williams could easily open the year in the rotation.
Ryan Dempster finally found his groove last year as Chicago’s closer. He figures to return to that role again this year and will have to reprove himself to many. Setting him up are a couple of new additions, Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre. Signed as free agents during the winter, they add veteran depth behind Dempster. Scott Williamson, a perennial threat for the DL, is also available for the seventh or eighth innings. Middle relief likely is handled by Will Ohman and Mike Wuertz
The NL Central race looks to once again be a race for second behind St. Louis. The Cubs, Brewers and Astros figure to be in the thick of that battle and there may not be much margin for error since but a game or two could separate second place from fourth.
Key Performer(s): Prior and Wood. The Cubs need at least 60 starts from the pair, or 30 starts and 40+ relief appearances if that’s the chosen route, to compete for a postseason spot.
Camp Question(s): Middle of the infield, the #5 starter and figuring out bullpen roles.
My Play: My math says 84 wins, just below Pinnacle’s o/u line of 85. If you believe Prior and Wood will be alright, bet the over. If not, go the under. If you’re a Cubs fan and suffer from the jaded perspective that history has burdened you with, then you’re already all over the under.
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Originally Posted by picantel
Unless steals are negative points or something goofy like that.
