Young right-handers John Maine and Matt Cain meet this afternoon when the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants square off in the finale of their three-game series. Despite being known more as a pitcher's park, the first two games, split between the two clubs, have seen 12 and 15 runs scored. Will that change Wednesday at AT&T Park with these two promising arms on the mound?
It’s Maine and Cain, and pray for rain.
Two of the better young pitchers in baseball will be featured Wednesday afternoon when the 28-28 New York Mets finish off a three-game set with the 25-33 San Francisco Giants. John Maine (3.66 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) takes the mound for the Mets against Matt Cain (4.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP); it’s a 3:45 p.m. Eastern start with regional TV coverage in both markets.
Opposing hitters can pray all they want; the forecast calls for clear skies, but at least the wind will be blowing out to right field at about 20 MPH.
You may recall Cain from last year’s unfortunate turn as the least profitable pitcher in baseball. The Giants went 9-23 when Cain was on the hill, dropping 18.03 units and driving the Under to a 21-10-1 record. Don’t blame Cain – his 3.64 ERA made him the best starter in the rotation, but the Giants managed to score more than three runs for Cain just 11 times. Thus the big money on the Under.
Cain hasn’t been as effective this year, but he’s getting more run support. Aaron Rowand has almost replaced Barry Bonds’ bat in the lineup with a .948 OPS. Sophomore Fred Lewis has a useful .837 OPS in Bonds’ old spot in left field. And Bengie Molina is hitting well above his career level with a .856 OPS, third among all catchers in the majors.
The Over is now on top at 7-5 for Cain’s starts; all seven were losses, handing San Fran supporters a tall glass of red ink at -3.74 units. The Over also cashed in handsomely in the first two games of this series in similar weather conditions. Both of Wednesday’s pitchers are right-handers, so we might see a rare non-Bonds splashdown in McCovey Cove.
The Giants as a team are still getting creamed at the plate with a.724 OPS, although that’s still a big improvement over last year’s abysmal .708. New York isn’t doing much better at .731, and like last year, injuries are bedevilling the Mets. Ryan Church (.932) has already had two concussions this season, Moises Alou (.885 career) is on the DL until at least Thursday after playing in just 14 games, and Ramon Castro (.887 in 2007) got plunked on the left elbow last week after missing the first month of the season with a strained hamstring.
The Mets had a worse injury situation with their pitchers, but nearly everyone is back now, and the bullpen held up quite nicely in the interim with a 3.72 ERA. That’s No. 13 in the majors, well ahead of the No. 26 Giants and their 4.32 bullpen ERA. However, the New York firemen have been busy this series, cleaning up for Oliver Perez (0.1 IP) in the first game and supporting Pedro Martinez (6.0 IP) in his return to action Tuesday night.
Maine himself is usually done after six innings, even when he’s pitching well – which he hasn’t been of late. The towering righty gave up 11 earned runs in his last three starts to match his totals from the previous seven. New York lost all three games to fall to 6-5 with Maine toeing the rubber, leaving $22 in the bank for Mets supporters.
But Maine has a strong chance to rebound in Wednesday’s matinee. Rowand is 0-for-9 against him lifetime with three walks, and the only current Giant to get a hit off Maine in 23 at-bats is Dave Roberts. The Mets roster has a .722 OPS against Cain; David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are a combined 15-for-30 with seven doubles.
New York is a -125 road chalk with a total of 7½ runs. Larry Vanover is the assigned umpire at home plate. He has the Over at 5-4 this year with an average of 9.55 runs scored per game.
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Mets at Giants: Betting Maine or Cain?
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