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2006 Preview - Toronto Blue Jays
2005 Record: 80-82, 3rd in AL East
Yet another team to experience a 13+ game turnaround in the Win column from 2004-2005 (see Indians, Brewers), the Blue Jays went on a spending spree this winter in hopes of wrestling the stranglehold on the AL East from New York and Boston who have had control since 1998. The question now is, even with the high-priced additions, will it be enough?
A lot of criticism was leveled at GM J.P. Ricciardi for spending too much on his free agent mound pickups, starter AJ Burnett and reliever BJ Ryan. Maybe Ricciardi did fall in love a little too much with players who, like himself, go by their initials. But let’s face it; with the taxes and location north of the border, Toronto has historically had to spend a little more than some clubs in the USA to attract stars. An injury risk, Burnett was still the best free agent starter available this past winter, and he joins Roy Halladay to give the Jays a solid top to their rotation.
Behind them are lefties Gustavo Chacin and Ted Lilly, plus right-hander Josh Towers. Chacin fell off late in the season after a strong start, and his quirky motion won’t be so quirky any longer. Lilly had some shoulder trouble but is still a nice #5 starter. He was a Red Sox killer last year, but a Yankee whipping boy. Towers had his best season ever and actually got stronger as the season wore on. Look for him to have the best numbers among the back-end trio in 2006. The one problem Toronto has is not much behind the present quintet, at least not much that’s ready and raring right now. Scott Downs, who will open in the bullpen, could be called on if an early need arises. Dustin McGowan is their brightest prospect but needs at least another half-year on the farm.
After several good years as a setup man in Baltimore, Ryan assumed closer duties last year and responded with 36 saves in 41 opportunities. He shouldn’t have received a 5-year deal for that, but he’ll still be a ton better closing out games than the Miguel Batista disaster a year ago in Toronto. Justin Speier and Jason Frasor figure to get most of the setup work out of the pen. Frasor might be the go-to guy early on until Speier proves he’s back from an injury to his right middle finger. Scott Schoeneweis is the lefty specialist again with some help from Downs. Vinnie Chulk, Pete Walker and maybe James Baldwin are your middle relievers. Brandon League and Shaun Marcum could be called up for middle relief work at some point during the season.
Blue Jays fans will be looking at a fairly new infield this year. Troy Glaus was acquired in a trade from Arizona and Toronto is counting on his big stick to be in the lineup 140+ games. Too bad the deal also included the club promising Glaus would play third base instead of just filling the DH role. Across the diamond at first will be Lyle Overbay who was picked up from Milwaukee. The good news is that Toronto has some options for the infield corners should Glaus get injured, again, or Overbay need a rest against southpaws. Eric Hinske is a better glove at third than Glaus and, like Shea Hillenbrand, can cover both corners of the diamond.
Russ Adams is back at shortstop and really doesn’t offer much offensively or defensively. Aaron Hill takes over at second after the club dealt Orlando Hudson in the Glaus swap. Hill is making the transition to second after playing short most of his minor league career. John McDonald, a slick fielder with no stick, backs up both spots.
Bengie Molina signed a late free agent deal and is listed as the #1 catcher. However, I look for about a 90-70 split between him and Gregg Zaun behind the plate for Toronto this season unless Molina really gets off to a fast start with the bat.
A notorious slow starter, center fielder Vernon Wells’ spring has already been slowed with a quad injury. Still, with the added oomph in the order assuming Glaus can stay off the DL, I look for a nice year from Wells. Frank Catalanotto is the starter in left and could lead off for the Blue Jays though he has lost a step in recent years. The talented young Alexis Rios is probably in a make-or-break season in Toronto. Growing tired of him not making any progress on his potential, Ricciardi and manager John Gibbons are going to try Hinske in the outfield this spring in an effort to push Rios. Reed Johnson could platoon with Catalanotto in left and serve as the #4 outfielder.
Hillenbrand is the leading candidate to get most of the DH time right now, but that could change as the season goes on, especially if Glaus warms to the idea or can’t fend off his assorted aches and pains playing in the field. John-Ford Griffin has a long ball bat and could figure into this role.
Following a winter of big signings and trades, everything might be in place for the Blue Jays to challenge the Yankees and Sox. But expecting them to make another 10-15 game leap in the Win column, which is what it will take to pass one or both of the big boys by, might be asking too much.
Key Performer(s): The returning cast is critical, but there’s no doubt that all eyes will be on the Big 4 newcomers --- Burnett, Glaus, Ryan and Molina.
Camp Question(s): Getting a new infield together, trying Hinske in a corner OF spot, and finding the right relief mix in front of Ryan.
My Play: My projections came up with 85 wins which would be a 5-game improvement from 2005. They might do better, with Pinnacle currently listing the o/u line at 87½. The last time three teams won more than 87 games in the AL East was 1998, so unless you like the Yankees and/or the Red Sox to slip to 87 wins or less, I’d bet the under on Toronto.
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