[Willie Bee]

2005 Record: 81-81, 5th in NL East

The first couple of months of the ‘05 season were a great time to be in DC-Baltimore. Not only had baseball returned to the nation’s capital for the first time in about 35 years, both the relocated Nationals and their Oriole neighbors were winning. But any dreams of an I-95 Series were eventually quashed when Baltimore plunged down the AL East ranks in late June and Washington fell out of the NL East race beginning in late July.

Any thoughts of such this year will once again dreams unfulfilled.

Washington has some nice pitching with Livan Hernandez and John Patterson at the top of the rotation and Chad Cordero closing things out. I really like Hernandez, aka Quarter Pounder, and Patterson appears fully recovered from his Tommy John surgery. But the rest of the rotation is a bit up in the air. The 3-4-5 starting nods will be decided this spring between Ramon Ortiz, Tony Armas Jr., Ryan Drese, Pedro Astacio and Billy Traber, the only lefty in the entire group. Chances are that all will see action at some point since each and every darn one of ‘em has health concerns. Jon Rauch and Michael Hinckley are probably next in line if all of them succumb to injury.

Cordero might be the best young (24 by Opening Day) closer in the game today, and you have to like his dedication after the asthmatic swore off his inhaler recently just to pass the drug tests in the WBC. Talk about silliness, MLB let steroids go on and on for a decade but now has cracked down to the point someone like Cordero can’t follow his prescribed health care [roll eyes]. Preceding him from the Nats’ pen is an assortment of right-handers and southpaws. Luis Ayala had minor elbow surgery in the offseason and, if healed, should get most of the 8th-ining chores. Gary Majewski has bounced around since being a 2nd-round pick in 1998. He throws hard, but he also has bouts of control trouble and will likely see his ERA rise unless his WHIP rate drops this season. Lefty Joey Eischen has pitched pretty well in relief roles, but like the bulk of the starters he has built a rather thick medical folder over the years. Veteran lefty Mike Stanton should still be fairly effective as he enters his 18th MLB campaign.

Middle relief roles likely land in the laps of right-handers Felix Rodriguez and Kevin Gryboski. I look for Gryboski to rebound in 2006 now that he’s back in the NL.

The offense that ranked dead last in the majors in 2005 with just 639 plate crossings doesn’t look to be any better this time. Slugger Jose Guillen is already iffy with a bum wrist. Alfonso Soriano, acquired during the winter for Brad Wilkerson, Termel Sledge and a minor leaguer, has thrown a tantrum about shifting from second base to the outfield. You’d think he’d be more concerned with a lousy .639 OPS outside the confines of North Texas last season. Jose Vidro, who the club does want at 2B, has bum knees and has been on a slide for a few years now. Nick Johnson, who might have the best plate discipline in the NL, simply can’t be counted on for a whole season.

Cristian Guzman, just about the opposite of Johnson as far as plate discipline goes, will be pushed for the shortstop job this spring by Royce Clayton. Infield backups include Marlon Anderson, Daryle Ward and Damian Jackson. Robert Fick is also in camp with his assortment of infield, outfield and catcher mitts.

Brian Schneider is an underrated receiver, and he has a big battle behind him for backup backstop between Matt LeCroy, Wiki Gonzalez, Alberto Castillo, Mike DiFelice and the fore mentioned Fick.

Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Church represent the brightest hope for Washington’s offense in the future, and maybe this year as well. Zimmerman, less than a year removed from Virginia where he was a top collegian, will be at third. He is outstanding with the glove and has the potential to pop 20 flies and drive in 80-90 runs a season. Church will be in center, which isn’t his outfield spot, and has been overmatched at the plate by even the weakest of left-handers. He has 20+ HR pop as well, but his time could be running out with the Nationals. Marlon Byrd and Michael Tucker enter camp with the #4-#5 OF jobs to lose. George Lombard and fleet-footed Brandon Watson are in the wings.

Manager Frank Robinson and his team won’t have the luxury of sneaking up on anyone this time. The Braves continue to roll year after year with their system, the Mets are stacked on offense with two of the game’s top starters and a solid closer, and the Phillies have an imposing lineup with at least average pitching. The Nats should thank the Marlins for their latest sell-off; otherwise, Washington would be digging up their old battle cry, “First in war, last in the NL East.”

Key Performer(s): The two Ryan’s, Church and Zimmerman, and keeping Vidro and Johnson healthy.

Camp Question(s): Solving the Soriano dilemma, most likely by giving him more cash or trading him off, and deciding between Guzman and Clayton for shortstop.

My Play: When I sat down and ran my calculations a couple of weeks back, it came out to 75 wins for the Nationals. That was before the injuries to both Guillen and Lawrence were announced. Pinnacle currently has the o/u line for DC at 74.5. Under sounds good for the moment. Another under to watch for is how long GM Jim Bowden lasts in his job if and when the club is sold.

[bigboydan]

i doubt we see the nats even close to .500 this year. they really over achieved last season. not to mention that guillen is out for 3 months, so that doesn't help matters.

[Illusion]

Guillen being out is a huge loss. I also like the under this season for the Nationals.

[ORO1960]

with all of the losers all ready in washington dc, they deserve a losing base ball team to.

[isetcap]

I'm never prepared to say that a Frank Robinson managed team will not be close to .500

Since he has been with the Expos, they have overachieved and I expect they will do so again this year.

[Willie Bee]

As if the problems with Sorry-ano weren't enough, primary setup arm Luis Ayala is expected to miss the season after reconstructive elbow surgery (From AP notes at USA Today).

[Willie Bee]

Pinnacle remains 74½ with the over (+112) and under (-128).

The Greek sets the bar a win higher at 75½ ... no price visible this morning; will check back another day on that.

[Willie Bee]

I'm guessing this little incident will all but seal Bowden's impending dismissal from the GM seat...hitting a cop is also not a very good way to begin your 'no violence' defense

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2414767

MIAMI -- Washington Nationals general manager Jim Bowden's attorney denied that Bowden and his girlfriend scuffled before the couple was arrested last weekend after he allegedly ran a stop sign.

A police report said Bowden and girlfriend Joy Browning -- who were in Florida for a series against the Marlins -- were arguing early Monday but assured police they were fine. About 10 minutes later, police said Bowden ran a stop sign.

When they stopped Bowden, police noticed scratches on his right ear and left cheek and told Browning she would be arrested on a domestic violence charge. She refused to get out of the car and struck one of the officers twice after he took her cell phone.

Browning was charged with simple battery, felony resisting arrest with violence and resisting arrest without violence. Bowden was charged with driving under the influence of alcohol after allegedly running the stop sign.

"My clients, Mr. Bowden and Ms. Browning, vehemently deny all allegations of domestic battery or domestic violence," attorney John Bergendahl said. "These allegations are wholly unfounded, and we will aggressively contest and challenge them at each stage of the pending legal proceedings. There has never been any domestic battery or violence during the course of their relationship."

Bergendahl did not comment on any other charges against his clients. Miami Beach Police Department spokesman Bobby Hernandez said Browning was arrested in accordance with police and state policy defining domestic violence.

"They were witnessed by the officers prior to the stop in an argument. They approached them, and there were no signs of any physical altercations between them. At the stop there were visible signs of domestic violence against Mr. Bowden," Hernandez said.

[bigboydan]

that sure doesn't help matters with the teams disaray this year.

[Willie Bee]

My Play: When I sat down and ran my calculations a couple of weeks back, it came out to 75 wins for the Nationals. That was before the injuries to both Guillen and Lawrence were announced. Pinnacle currently has the o/u line for DC at 74.5. Under sounds good for the moment. Another under to watch for is how long GM Jim Bowden lasts in his job if and when the club is sold.

They finally have one owner instead of 29 and they're getting used to playing in DC after all those years in Montreal. So maybe things will eventually settle down for the Nationals. But for now, the settling suggests they will win but 66 or so games this season.

Expected to be a bit challenged offensively, that has been the case but not to the point many predicted. Their 68 HR have them tied for third in the NL, though many have come with nobody on base as the Nats have scored just 235 runs, 4th-fewest in the Senior Circuit. Alfonso Soriano, Jose Vidro and Nick Johnson have done their part. Rookie Ryan Zimmerman looks like he could turn that into a nice quartet in the batting order despite he and Soriano K victims far too with both on pace for 140-150 whiffs this year.

The mound has been plagued by a lot of wildness as their 212 walks, 2nd-most in the NL, would indicate. Their 4.46 ERA has them in the middle of the NL pack. Livan Hernandez looks to be righting his ship after a bad beginning to '06, and that could go a long way for this staff. Tony Armas and rookie Mike O'Connor have done well in the rotation, with O'Connor not expected to miss any time after taking a Chase Utley line drive off his ankle in his last outing. John Patterson and Pedro Astacio, each on the DL since April, are expected back in the next week or so to help boost the rotation as well. A decision will have to be made at some point where they slide in, with Ramon Ortiz possibly the odd man out if O'Connor isn't sent back to the minors.

Chad Cordero hasn't had a lot of games to save, and he's been plagued a bit by the long ball so far. But with Jon Rauch, Gary Majewski and Mike Stanton providing setup and middle relief, the core is there for a good bullpen corps.

Washington got off to a 2-9 start this year unlike a season ago when they looked like NL East contenders most of the first half. A 3-9 record in 1-run games, and 1-4 mark in extra inning affairs, are part of the problem up to now. Having won nine of their last 12, perhaps they can climb back up the ranks and beat those mid-70s o/u lines posted for them before the season began. But the schedule wouldn't favor that for June as they head to Milwaukee then Atlanta before coming home to face the Philles, Rockies and Yankees. After that are road series in Boston, Baltimore and Toronto. The Orioles are the weakest team on their June slate, so a turnaround now could have a big effect on standings in several divisions besides their own.