[mofome]

you give me a game you're looking at and i'll cap the thing and have a pick. so far 3-1 with the one loss coming on a blown save.

[junkman773]

Minn vs Texas

[rake922]

Royals/Redsox side and total

[mofome]

each of those games starts in about 10 minutes.

[Sportsgirl]

1

[junkman773]

each of those games starts in about 10 minutes.

Sorry about that MO lets go with

The Cinn. game total

[louisvillekid]

Angles/Blue Jays

same one i was going to say, because of the pitching change, i still took LAA, because of Figgins being back, added speed on the bases

[mofome]

boston and kc will be rainy and cool with the winds blowing out at about 11 mph. each of these guys are fly ball pitchers, but 11 mph shouldnt play too big a factor in the overall power seen today as the cool temps will cause the ball to travel a little more poorly than it would on a warmer day.

despite 7 HA, dice K actually had perhpas his best outing of the season last time out vs Mil. he only allowed one LD in 6.2 IP while he ked 6. bannister has been up an down after starting the year with 3 impressive outings; last time out he was hit pretty hard by the marilins and he has been hit pretty hard on the road through the course of his last 3 road starts.

the boston lineup as a very good OPS vs bannister of .900 and they've hit 3 HR in 33 Abs; manny, ortiz, and pedroia each have a HR off Brian over the span of 9 total ABs.


KC has actually hit Dice K fairly well in their 31 team Abs vs the right hander. they have a team BA of .290 but their OPS isnt great at .753. dejesus and guillen have done some damage vs. dike-k, but the team does have 12Ks vs only one BB in their matchups with the boston hurler.

a couple concerning stats for the Royals:

• Royals are lowest scoring team in the league at 3.7 runs per game.
• Royals have the third-lowest base on balls in the league at 2.9 per game.
• Red Sox are the highest scoring team in the league at 5.2 runs per game.
• Red Sox lead the league in hits with 10.1 per game.
• Red Sox allow the third least hits in the league at 8.0 per game.
• Red Sox are third in the league in striking out opponents with 7.0 per game.

interesting note is that KC is 1-0 as a road dog of +175 to +200 this season and they're 22-21 in those spots over the last 3 years +20.7 units.

Boston is tough at home, on a hot streak and 20-4 when playing teams with a losing record. I could not play KC in this game, so i will lay off.


this one had to be quick/short with the game starting shortly.

[Sportsgirl]

1

[mofome]

Angles/Blue Jays

Santana vs Burnett:

Ervin Santana
Santana has enjoyed a turn around season in 08 as his HA/k ratio and HA/IP ratio are simply awesome compared to what he did in 07. At 6-1 and with a good offense behind him, i don't see why he is a dog you can find at better than +120.

Ervins Stats:

• 7.42 K/9
• 1.93 BB/9
• 0.59 HR/9
• .219 ave against
• .267 BABIP
• 18.9 LD%
• 34.9 GB%
• 46.3 FB%
• 8.9% HR/FB

What he throws:

• 68.2% FB
• 27.5% Slider
• 3.8% Change.

so you can see that Ervin is essentially a 2 pitch pitcher that will mix in the change every once in a while.

Ervin ERA splits



Ervin BA splits



Ervin LOB% splits



As you would expect, Santana has been much tougher on righties than lefties; his BA allowed to lefties is something he'll have to work on as it sits near .300 presently.

AJ Burnett
Aj some of the most dominant stuff in the game, but he can struggle to locate at times and that gets him in trouble. It is absolutely ridiculous to see Burnetts ERA up ove 4.70, but thats where we find him 2/3rds of the way through May.

Burnett's Stats:

• 7.69 K/9
• 4.24 BB/9
• 0.63 HR/9
• .264 BAA
• .324 BABIP
• 19.1% LD
• 47.4 % GB
• 33.5 % FB
• 6.9 % HR/FB

What he throws:

• 66.0% FB
• 2.8% slider
• 25.4% Curve Ball
• 5.8% Change

Burnett mixes his pitches up more than Ervin does, but he still seems to rely too much on his power Fb and Power curve. He gets enamored with the strike out when he really should be forcing more guys to put the ball in play against him. His stuff is nasty, but he goes out looking to K the side each inning and he gets his pitch count up and he eventually finds himself in trouble. what is interesting is that Burnett Ks lefties at a higher rate than righties, but his splits vs lefties overall are ugly.

Burnett's ERA splits:



Burnett's BAA splits:



Burnett's LOB% splits:




ah, now we find the reason that the Jays are favored tonight, AJ Burnett has dominated this LAA lineup. Overall this roster is hitting just .190 off of Aj and their OPS is under .690. Vlad makes up over half of the teams 63 totals ABS against the tall right hander and he is just 7 of 34 with 9 Ks. Tori hunter has seen Burnett more than anyone other than Vlad and he is just 1 of 8 off the Tor starter. The rest of the bats have just 4 hits in 19 matchups with Burnett.

Ervin has had a decent amount of success against the Tor lineup over his career. In 115 team ABs this lineup is hitting just .243 against santana with only 5HR and 7 walks. Wells, Stairs, and Stewart have hit the youngster hard, but wells is out tonight. The power against ervin has come off the bat of Brad Wilkerson who has 3 HRs in 18Abs in his meetings with the Angels starter.

The angels bats have really struggled over their last games as they've batted just .228 and have an OBP under .295. The halos actually score more on the road than they do at home, but their BA as the vositing side is still pretty bad.

As most of us know, the Tor bats have struggled at home, on the road, on turf, and in just about every circumstance you could imagine. The bright spot for this team has been their pitching and that success extends into the bullpen where the jays rank 2nd in the AL. If this line moves under -130 for the jays, this will be an LT Profit BP system play.

A trend of note here is the fact that 9 of the last 10 in this series have gone under the total.

Umpire:
Jeff Kellogg is the ump tonight and 5 of his 8 games have gone under, though last year he was more of an unders umpire. Here are kellogs games:

• Date - Road Team - Home Team - line - result
• 04/01 NY Mets(Pedro Martinez) Florida(Rick VandenHurk) 9 P
• 04/06 Chi White Sox(Mark Buehrle) Detroit(Justin Verlander) 0 O
• 04/11 San Diego(Jake Peavy) Dodgers(Brad Penny) 7 O
• 04/15 Arizona(Micah Owings) San Francisco(Kevin Correia) 7.5 O
• 04/20 Colorado(Ubaldo Jimenez) Houston(Shawn Chacon) 9.5 O
• 04/24 Philadelphia(Jamie Moyer) Milwaukee(Jeff Suppan) 10 U
• 04/28 Baltimore(Daniel Cabrera) Chi White Sox(Javier Vazquez) 8.5 U
• 05/02 Cincinnati(Edinson Volquez) Atlanta(Tim Hudson) 8.5 U
• 05/06 Texas(Sidney Ponson) Seattle(Miguel Batista) 9 O
• 05/10 Philadelphia(Jamie Moyer) San Francisco(Tim Lincecum) 8 O

Burnett has struggled greatly against lefties and the angels two hottest hitters, Kotchman and Anderson, happen to be lefties. Ervin is getting a spot start tonight, but he i still on full rest. Tonight i will take Ana ff and the game under 8.5.

Ana ff +117
under 8.5

[Sportsgirl]

1

[buztah]

very solid thread, mo. You know your shit!

[mofome]

Really nice write-up, Mo - thanks!

ty!

[mofome]

very solid thread, mo. You know your shit!

I aspire to be part of True Lion sports if i am able to prove myself over time.

[buztah]

I aspire to be part of True Lion sports if i am able to prove myself over time.

I bet you'd kick butt in Kappin' Kamp. Sign up and apply for one of our scholarships. We have 3 free rides. E-mail your resume and a cover letter to marsha@truelionsports.com today.

[mofome]

I bet you'd kick butt in Kappin' Kamp. Sign up and apply for one of our scholarships. We have 3 free rides. E-mail your resume and a cover letter to marsha@truelionsports.com today.

a fax has been sent to the 488 number i got off the true lion home page.

[buztah]

a fax has been sent to the 488 number i got off the true lion home page.

Marsha already brought it up to me. I'll review and put in a good word with the committee. Expect to hear in 3-4 weeks. Good luck, son!

[mofome]

Marsha already brought it up to me. I'll review and put in a good word with the committee. Expect to hear in 3-4 weeks. Good luck, son!

ty Buzzy. Not to be a kiss ass, but Ive been a true lion supporter long before they came to SBR. I remember back when i was a kid and everyone wanted GI Joe stuff and a Tuddy Ruxpin; all i wanted was some true lion paraphernalia.

[Sportsgirl]

1

[Deke101]

Good write-ups as usual...What about Arizona/Florida?