Does this surprise anyone else?

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  • BadBeatBodog
    SBR MVP
    • 06-05-08
    • 1006

    #1
    Does this surprise anyone else?
    NL West 2008

    Arizona -115
    Los Angeles +100

    "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

    "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
  • ryanXL977
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-24-08
    • 20615

    #2
    nope
    az has pitching, la doesnt. la cant hit either, so no gain over az. plus saito is out till august
    az will win the west
    Comment
    • BadBeatBodog
      SBR MVP
      • 06-05-08
      • 1006

      #3
      That's what I'm saying. As bad as Arizona has tailed off, you have to think they are somewhere in the middle of their blazing start and ice cold finish; I see them as better than .500 and with the injuries for LA how in the world are they going to compete with AZ? I'm wondering why the odds are so low - anyone else?
      "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

      "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
      Comment
      • ryanXL977
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-24-08
        • 20615

        #4
        la is always overvalued, like nyy
        Comment
        • BadBeatBodog
          SBR MVP
          • 06-05-08
          • 1006

          #5
          I'm just looking for a reason not to tie up a decent amount of money on this; it seems like a very solid bet to me but would like to hear others' opinions?
          "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

          "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
          Comment
          • ryanXL977
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-24-08
            • 20615

            #6
            its a good bet. i mean, its 50.50 between them and la, thats it

            so who do you trust to turn it around more, azs hitting, or la's

            i trust chris young and upton and crew a lot kmore than i trust nomar and andruw jones

            those guys are done
            Comment
            • BadBeatBodog
              SBR MVP
              • 06-05-08
              • 1006

              #7
              Yeah that's what I figure. This is -149/+110 at Matchbook but +100/+100 at Sportsbook. I don't get it...
              "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

              "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
              Comment
              • ryanXL977
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 02-24-08
                • 20615

                #8
                thats weird, but maybe a few diff guys on MB like sz a lot?
                Comment
                • rjt721
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 02-06-07
                  • 7929

                  #9
                  Originally posted by ryanXL977
                  az has pitching, la doesnt.
                  Really?

                  Originally posted by ryanXL977
                  its a good bet. i mean, its 50.50 between them and la, thats it
                  If it's 50/50, how is 'Zona -115 a good bet?
                  Comment
                  • ryanXL977
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-24-08
                    • 20615

                    #10
                    i meant its a two team race, not 5050
                    Comment
                    • BadBeatBodog
                      SBR MVP
                      • 06-05-08
                      • 1006

                      #11
                      The original line I posted is from 5D, btw, and the prop is only for those two teams so it's a *little* different from NL West winner. I don't have money on sportsbook.com so I'd have to take -115 but I just don't see LA fighting through all the injuries. I think AZ has the superior offense and starting pitching, fielding is a wash, and although LA has the bullpen advantage they just lost Saito until August.
                      "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                      "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                      Comment
                      • ryanXL977
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 02-24-08
                        • 20615

                        #12
                        i dont think la has the pitching advantage, pen wise.
                        once they stop pitching qualls, their pen is top 5-8
                        Comment
                        • BadBeatBodog
                          SBR MVP
                          • 06-05-08
                          • 1006

                          #13
                          Broxton-Saito was a top 8th-9th inning combo.
                          "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                          "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                          Comment
                          • ryanXL977
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 02-24-08
                            • 20615

                            #14
                            true
                            but with no saito the pen becomes average at best, to me anyhow
                            Comment
                            • BadBeatBodog
                              SBR MVP
                              • 06-05-08
                              • 1006

                              #15
                              Yeah it's a huge knock. Broxton should be fine moving into the closer's role but losing Saito and having to bump everyone up an inning is a pretty big deal IMO. The more I think about it AZ seems like such a great bet but the line disparity among books confuses me. Can anyone help me out with NL West prices @ some other books?
                              "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                              "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                              Comment
                              • ryanXL977
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 02-24-08
                                • 20615

                                #16
                                i have az -125 on mine
                                dude, saito is a top tier closer, losing him is huge
                                so who pitches 8th now? beimel? proctor? if proctor then la wont win 82 games, he is horrid

                                az is the play
                                Comment
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