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MLB 6-Pack Friday (51-56, -1.33)
I broke exactly even Thursday by splitting my two plays. The Bullpen System went 1-1 also, but unlike my plays, it gained +0.20 units. BPS is now 32-31, +3.26 YTD. Right now, it looks like 7 plays qualify under the BPS Friday, and there could be 8 with a line move. I am including 5 of them among my plays:
ALL Lines from 5 Dimes except Rays
Orioles -121 *BPS*
Yankees +139 *BPS*
Athletics +134 *BPS*
Rays +100 (WSEX) *BPS*
Rays/Cardinals OVER 9 +100
White Sox -107 *BPS*
YTD: 51-56, 47.7%, -1.33
LT, why o why do u have to pick the Rays today!...after i see rjt on stlouis, i decide im gonna go big on it, but then i see u now on the opposite side. Now im effen confused
Rays are my POD in SBR Best Bet thread too, just to add to your confusion.
I like the Rays also, you gotta go with the hot team. St. Louis can't buy a win it seems.
Don't let the opinions of a gaming forum poster sway you one way or another.Originally Posted by supra23
LT, why o why do u have to pick the Rays today!...after i see rjt on stlouis, i decide im gonna go big on it, but then i see u now on the opposite side. Now im effen confused
Sports gambling is a cut throat business man. You realize that when one gambler wins, another gambler will lose on that same game. We're all friends on here till the games start. After that, it's every gambler for themselves
I'm still trying to figure this BPS system out. So you take a top ten bullpen team thats lower than -130 vs a bottom ten bullpen team right? so today its baltimore, tampa bay, la dodgers and chi white sox. how do the yankees and a's qualify?
treece,
No. You take top 10 lower than - 130 (or + anything) vs. non-top 10.
With O's now qualifying, there are eight BPS plays as of now. Watch out for line moves though. Results are based on lines posted at covers (Pinnacle closing).
Correction, I had O's qualifying all along, so it is still seven as of now. The possible eighth that does not qualify yet is Florida.
Major League Baseball Bullpen Statistics Team ERA
1 Philadelphia 2.65
2 Oakland 2.94
3 Toronto 3.09
4 LA Dodgers 3.12
5 Tampa Bay 3.18
6 NY Yankees 3.23
7 Florida 3.32
8 Baltimore 3.38
9 Minnesota 3.38
10 Chi. White Sox 3.49
11. Chicago Cubs 3.50
BPS Plays for Friday: (all lines from BJ)
Baltimore -128
NY Yankees +131
Oakland +138
Tampa Bay -108
Minn. Twins +124
LA Dodgers +115
Chicago White Sox +111
Good luck, all!
Doc
LT, did you ever check BPS results in seasons previous to 2005?
oh ok. however if you bet a top 10 vs a bottom 10 you'd probably hit at a higher percentage.
bigugly,
No, that is a job for the off-season. Remember that this is not simple backtracking, as I would have to go back at look at bullpen ERAs ENTERING each day, NOT the full-season numbers.
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treece,
Yes to higher percentage, but top 10 vs. middle 10 contributed to the +97 average too, so why leave money on the table? The goal is to make as many units as possible, not have a higher win % with fewer units won.
Big ugly,
If you've never back-tested a formula or system, that has a stipulation like LT's, consider yourself lucky. When you're all happy that you finally finished with one year, you just remembered that you have 9 more to go. Ask Dio, I think he remembers, I was pulling my hair out, because I would work on it until I freaked out and couldn't take any more each day. I just wanted to get it done. There is no possible way you could do this during the season, unless you make no contact with the outside world.
Not to mention my three kids I want to spend a FEW minitues with each day.
It's no big deal ignoring the wife though!
(Just kidding honey. Now stop swinging that pan at me)
Nice day for the BPS, LT!! I'd take 4-2 every day for the rest of the season!!
Doc
um Doc,
Unfortunately it was actually 3-3 for -0.02. Remember covers uses Pinnacle closing, and system lost a winner when O's closed at -131 and it "gained" an ugly loser when Marlins closed at -128. FYI, Twins were +126 and White Sox ended up favored, thus the -0.02.
LT,
As a point of clarification, do you not bet the BPS until the closing number or do you just not count it unless it stays below -130? Yesterday, I bet Baltimore when it was -128. And didn't bet Florida because when I looked at it, I think they were still at -140, so I passed.
Thanks,
Doc
Yes, which is why my actual results yesterday were better than the system results, since I used Baltimore and did not use Florida. Ideally though, you should wait until the last possible minute if a game is close, but life doesn't always allow for that.
For record-keeping purposes however, I have to use lines from covers for sake of consistency, as they have always been my stats source. The last-three-year records were all based on bullpen ERA pulled from covers each day and based on their lines.
LT,
Thanks for the clarification! I thought we were pretty much talking about semantics/record keeping.
Doc
Oh, I am sure it is a ton of work, and I was not suggesting you do it right at this moment. I appreciate the work you've already put into this.
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