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2006 Preview - Minnesota Twins
2005 Record: 83-79, 3rd in AL Central
After pulling off 3-straight division titles from 2002-04, Minnesota took a couple of steps back in 2005 when injuries and an ultra-anemic offense reared their ugly heads. There are signs that point to 2006 also not being very pretty.
The Twins should have the edge over the opposition at least 33 times this season. Johan Santana may be the best starting pitcher going, and his best seasons should be ahead of him since he’s just 27 come Opening Day. Brad Radke and Carlos Silva combine with Santana to give Minnesota a strong top three in the rotation. Both have some health concerns, with Radke’s shoulder showing signs he could be approaching midnight on his career and Silva coming back from knee surgery. Kyle Lohse is the right age to have a career year and is coming off his best ERA. But he’ll have competition for the rotation this time with both Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano. Liriano is the one getting ink since he’s a hard-throwing strikeout pitcher and still very young. Both Baker and Liriano could make the rotation, but one will more than likely start in the minors get the call when Radke breaks down or Lohse proves he can’t handle being a starter any longer.
Joe Nathan anchors the bullpen following 87 saves the past two years. The primary setup roles belong to Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain. Both performed admirably in 2005, but Rincon was reportedly slowed this winter following chip removal from his right elbow and Crain, who was being counted on as the heir apparent to Nathan, has to rediscover some zip to his pitches.
The rest of the bullpen is up in the air right now. Veterans Denys Reyes, Darrell May and Gabe White are going to duke it out for the left-handed spot. Matt Guerrier looks like he’ll have a job in middle relief, maybe even share some setup duties if Rincon’s elbow acts up. A good camp could put Pete Munro into a middle-relief role.
The offense is where the real spotlight will be after scoring about a 100 fewer times in 2005 than in 2004. Joe Mauer started to develop into the player he was supposed to be and continued progression in 2006 is expected. The native of St. Paul will turn 23 just after Opening Day and he is already capable of putting up a .300+ average with an .800+ OPS. But unless his teammates help out, it will be for naught.
Justin Morneau was a disappointment despite swatting 22 HR in 2005. Some of the first baseman’s trouble was due to an assortment of injuries and illnesses, so it’s easy to imagine a much better 2006. Across the diamond from Morneau will be Tony Batista, back from Japan and ready to show off his power again in the majors. He’s also a good bet to show off a sub-.300 OB% that means a lot of famine surrounding his moments of feast at the plate.
Luis Castillo was brought over from the Marlins to handle second base and a spot near or at the top of the order. No longer a big SB threat, and with limited range in the field, Castillo is still capable of getting on base and setting the table for the hitters behind him. And that’s something he’s going to have to do whether he bats first or second. Jason Bartlett is Castillo’s DP partner at short and is a capable fielder. On offense, Bartlett is still a capable fielder. Infield backups include Nick Punto and Juan Castro.
Michael Cuddyer, who was something of a defensive nightmare at third, will try his hand in right field now. The former 1st-rounder has put up similar numbers the last two years, not necessarily a good thing, and the Twins hope a move to the outfield relaxes him at the plate. Outfield mainstays Shannon Stewart and Torii Hunter are back in left and center and both are coming off sub-par seasons. Hunter’s 2005 was cut short by a busted ankle that could bother him off an on all season. Some of Stewart’s downturn can also be blamed on an injury (left shoulder). But he’s been a disappointment since signing a 3-year deal before 2004. Maybe he can turn that around now that he’s in a walk year. The Twins might also be tempted to deal him if he does.
Lew Ford will battle Cuddyer for RF, but most likely slide into the #4 OF role when the dust settles. Jason Kubel is still battling back from a major knee injury late in 2004 that kept him out of action in 2005. He’s just 23 and has .290-25 HR potential. Odds are he begins 2006 at Triple-A Rochester and gets a call midseason.
Rondell White, always a candidate for the DL, was signed this winter and gives the Twins a legitimate power threat in the DH role. He could also play some OF, but as fragile as he has proven, just keeping him healthy as the full-time pinch-hitter will be difficult enough for manager Ron Gardenhire and the trainers.
With arguably the top starting pitcher in the majors today and one of the best closers as well, the Twins at least have that going for them. Teams have ridden one ace and a good bullpen to the postseason before. But with the White Sox and Indians stacked deeper and the Tigers even starting to show signs of pushing their way up, Minnesota will need everything to go their way if a 2006 postseason appearance is in the cards.
Key Performer(s): Crain and Rincon have to hold every lead they are handed so that Nathan can nail down the saves. Poor showings by the middle and setup relievers will doom this team.
Camp Question(s): The fourth and fifth starter’s jobs and the middle of the pen.
My Play: I’m seeing o/u lines in the 82½-83 at a few sites. I’ll take the under with my projections formula suggesting it will take a lot of things to go right to push this team above .500.
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