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Game Write up: Cubs @ Reds
Cubs @ Reds
Line:
Cubs +103
Reds -113
Over/Under 9
Records:
Cubs 18-13 (+2.2 units) – 15-14 O/U
Reds 12-20 (-9.8 units) – 14-16 O/U
Trends:
- The Cubs are 10-6 when the total is 9 to 9.5
- The Cubs are 1-2 as a road dog of +100 - +125
- The Cubs are 7-7 in road games (down .5 units)
- The Cubs are 1-3 in May
- The Cubs are 13-8 vs. their division
- The Cubs are 8-6 vs. right handed starters
- The Cubs are 7-5 after a loss
- The Cubs are 11-7 when playing vs. a team with a losing record
- The Cubs are 2-5 over their last 7
- The Cubs have gone Under in 5 of their last 7
- The Cubs have won 5 of their last 7 vs. Cinci
- The Reds are 6-8 at home
- The Reds are 4-6 in home games with a total of 9 to 9.5
- The Reds are 0-3 in May
- The Reds are 5-12 against their division
- The Reds are 5-13 at night
- The Reds are 8-14 vs. right-handed starters
- The Reds are 7-12 after a loss
- The Reds have gone 0-5 in their last 5
Weather:
The weather looks to be sunny and warm with the game time temp about 70 degrees. There is likely going to be a small breeze under 10mph blowing out to left.
Team vs. Team:
Recent Meetings:
- 9-2 Cinci
- 12-3 Cubs
- 9-5 Cubs
- 8-4 Cinci
- 4-0 Cubs
- 6-0 Cubs
- 3-2 Cubs
- 5-2 Cinci
- 7-6 Cubs
- 12-4 Cubs
Last year the Reds hit just .240 off of Cubs pitching in 584 AB’s and only slugged .667 over that sample which was well below the MLB average. Overall the Reds were a bit below the league average in most categories vs. the Cubbies in ’07. This year they are hitting .252 with 5 HR’s in 107 at bats.
The Reds staff has a putrid ERA of 8.28 against the Cubs and they’ve been rocked to the tune of a .333 BA against. Chicago has knocked in 36 hits over 25 innings against the Cinci staff. Last season the Reds ERA was 4.44 against today’s visitors and while that’s much better than what they’ve done thus far in ’08, it was still above the league average a season ago.
In 2007 the cubs held the Reds to a .240 BA against while allowing just 140 hits in 158.3 innings.
CUBS Pitching:
Ryan Dempster’s move from the Pen to the rotation has been a smooth one. The right-hander has a sparkling ERA of 3.16, a WHIP of 1.108, and a 4-0 record. Ryan is giving his team 6.2 IP per outing and he’s only allowed 22 hits on the season. The Cubs are 5-1 in Dempster’s starts and 4-1 on the Over. In his most recent starts the Cubs have given him 19, 3, and 13 runs in support as he has gone 2-0 in his last 3 trips to the hill. Ryan did not allowed more than a hit per inning in any of those games but he did struggle a bit with his commands walking 10 in 18 innings.
Ryan Dempster started against the Reds on the 15 of April and got a win after allowing 9 men to reach base in 6 innings of work. Previous to that start, Dempster had not opened a game against the Reds since 2005, a game that he managed to win despite pitching very poorly.
Ryan Dempster’s last 5 starts vs. the Reds went as follows:
- 6IP 5HA 4ER 5BB 3K (2008)
- 5.3IP 8HA 6ER 5BB 7K (2005)
- 6IP 7HA 5ER 5BB 2K (2002)
- 7IP 9HA 5ER 4BB 2K (2000)
- 8IP 6HA 1ER 1BB 7K (2000)
Over the years Dempster has faced Ken Griffey Jr 25 times and Ken has a .900 OPS to go along with a .318 BA and a HR off of him. Corey Patterson has seen Dempster 17 times and has a .294 BA and no Ks. Dunn, Bako, and Keppinger have all lit up Ryan in their limited opportunities against him, while Votto is one of just two reds to have taken RD deep. Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips, and Javier Valentine have all struggled to find offense against the Cubs starter.
This season Ryan is giving up a LD% of 15.1% which is far below his career average. Dempster is getting fewer LDs, more GBs, and few FBs which has helped him keep the ball in the yard so far this season. The vet shows off a 3 pitch repertoire which features a FB, Slider, and a change. Demp has thrown about 360 Fastball out of his 603 pitches and from there is breaks down to 22.5% sliders and 18% change ups.
CUBS Bats:
The Cubs bats have been smoking throughout the start of the ’08 campaign. The North Siders are averaging a healthy 6.1 runs per contest while maintaining a BA over .280 and an OBP over .368; they are the #1 offense in the NL. When the Cubs aren’t busy being the best hitting team in the league, they are taking their walks as they rank 2nd in the NL in that category. The Cubs have struggled a decent bit on the road, however, where they’re only hitting .247 as a team and scoring 4.8 a game. Some impressive hitting numbers that apply to tonight’s game are as follows:
- 6.3 runs per game and a .277 BA over their last 7 games.
- 6.7 runs per game and a .282 BA at night.
- 6.9 runs per game and a .294 BA against their division.
The Hot Cubs bats have belonged to Fukudome, Fontentot, and Soto; each of whom is batting over .391 over the last 7 days.
CINCI Pitching:
Cueto started off hot but he has since cooled down considerably. The youngster still has a great WHIP of 1.086, and an even better number at home (.857), but his ERA has skyrocketed to 5.40 overall. Cueto is going 5.8 innings per game, but that number goes up to 7.0 IP in his home starts. Johnny still has more Ks than HA, so there is certainly reason to believe he will get things back on track. His team is just 1-5 in his starts and the under is 4-2.
Cueto had as poor a performance as he ever figures to have in this last outing at St. Louis. The right-hander went just 1.7 innings and allowed 8 hits and 6 earned runs in the loss. In each of his two previous starts he went 7 innings, but he didn’t give his team much chance to win while giving up 5 earned to Houston.
Cueto will be seeing the Cubs for the first time this season as he hopes to regain his early April form. Thus far Cueto is avoiding hard contact pretty well allowing just 17.8% LD against. From there he proves to be a fly ball pitcher who has the stuff to get the K when needed. Cueto throws the same 3 pitches as Demp, but he relies 90% of the time on the slider/fb combination. Jhonny will have to get more comfortable with a 3rd pitch if he wants to have success in the rotation.
CINCI Bats:
The Reds offense has been nonexistent for much of the early part of the season; they average 4.1 runs per game and they’re batting .250. These numbers drop a bit at home, which is a little surprising given the history of their park. Against right-handed pitchers the Reds hit a respectable .255 but they still only cross the plate 4 times a game. Worse still, Cinci has only scored 3.7 runs a game over their last 7 while batting just .228. The one thing the Reds do well offensively is put the ball in play; they are 3rd in the league only striking out 5.7 times per game.
Freel has been a catalyst for this offense in the last week batting .429 while Dunn has played well batting .318. Unfortunately, no one else has done much over the last 7 games for the Reds.
Injuries:
Cubs:
- Scott Eyre P 15-Day Disabled List
- Angel Guzman P 60-Day Disabled List
- Aramis Ramirez 3B Day-to-Day (bruised wrist)
Reds:
- Alex Gonzalez SS 15-Day Disabled List
- Norris Hopper OF 15-Day Disabled List
- Bobby Livingston P 60-Day Disabled List
- David Weathers P 15-Day Disabled List
Ball Park:
Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati. Scoring here is heavily dictated by weather, so it’s wise to take a glance at that when looking over your totals. Today the weather should be warm, clear, and without much wind, so we should expect the game to play out normally. This Park has short fences which really hurts the fly ball pitchers. On that note, Cueto has been allowing over 44% Fly balls while Depmster is at 29.2%.
Umpire:
Crew not announced yet.
Bull Pen:
Cubs:
The Cubs bullpen has a very impressive WHIP of 1.236 over 111.7 IP. On the road they’ve been even more impressive recording an ERA of 3.22 and a WHIP under 1.30. A large concern for this group has been their inability to lock down games, the cubs are only 4 of 8 in road save opportunities.
Reds:
Overall the Reds pen has been average, but they’ve been great at home. The Cincinnati pen has a 2.17 ERA and a WHIP of 1.051 ERA in 45.7 IP at home to go along with 40Ks and a 3-1 record.
Line moves:
Pinny opened at the Cubs even but that line had moved to Cubs +104 by the time I started this.
My thoughts:
The better offense and the more ready Pitcher are each on the side of the Cubbies today. The Cubs offense has been raking and Cueto needs to make some adjustments as it seems that the league is figuring him out a bit. Dempster will need to control his walks and if he is able to do that he should give the Cubs an excellent shot at win number 19. Each bullpen has performed well in the home/away spots they find themselves in today, but the advantage still goes to Carolos Marmol and the Cubs relievers. I also like the fact that Cueto has proven to be a bit of a fly ball pitcher while Dempster keeps over 70% of the batted balls against him out of the FB category.
Pick:
Cubs +103
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Originally Posted by Deke101
