[dwaechte]

I'm going to be on the Jays for the next month or so. Solid bullpen and starters numbers that should hold up(barring injury of course), but the main reason is that all of their offensive metrics are just screaming to climb. 7 for their last 65 with RISP. Read that again. 7-for-65. A 12-17 record despite scoring more runs than their opponent on the season. Not to say that they're "bound" to snap out of this and start crushing the ball, but a lot of the traditional metrics will have this team very underrated right now.

[mofome]

write up coming up in a few on this one.

[cobra_king]

Their inability to hit with RISP has been a constant theme for 3 years now, and since alot of the key faces are the same i just don't see this changing for any extended period of time. With their pitching staff, they should be contending for the division lead instead of the basement.

[rake922]

pretty good insight

[dwaechte]

Bumping this up because I think this is still a good play. They’ve now won 5 in a row, but more importantly, they’ve done it without swinging the bat well. They went .190 w/RISP over their 4 game sweep of the ChiSox, and so their offense is still going to be undervalued. I don’t believe the offense is good, but if you look at the players pasts and even the PECOTA projections they’re still hitting well below that. Even if their hitting doesn’t improve, their hitting w/RISP should come around to their overall averages.

Contrary to what Cobra King said, their numbers w/RISP last year were actually a bit better than their overall numbers.

The pitching has been simply phenomenal, and although it can’t keep up at this pace, there’s no reason to think it won’t continue to be very, very good.

[cobra_king]

Contrary to what Cobra King said, their numbers w/RISP last year were actually a bit better than their overall numbers.

We'll agree to disagree on this one. Yes last year their numbers with RISP were better, but it's hard not to be better than a team average of .259 (compared to RISP average of .276) But if you break it down further to RISP with 2 outs they fall to a paltry .232 and the guys who i was referring to as the "same cast of characters" come in at some miserable numbers.

Rios .212
Overbay .170
Wells .190

In 2006 they hit .249 with RISP and 2 men out
In 2005 they hit .241 with RISP and 2 men out

If i erred it was in not specifying that although they do struggle with RISP, it's their numbers with 2 outs that has prevented this team from living up to it's obvious potential that this pitching staff brings to the table.