Fading out starters who have won 3 or more in arow
I took the cardinals on sunday against the giants and that really cost me some money. The line moved overnight from cardinals -165 to cardinals -200. Seems like that average pitchers who get on winning steak of 3 or more games, do get smoked. This was not the first time I had taken a pitcher on a winning steak and the pitcher got hammered. The percentage of winning 4 in a row is very low and 5 in a row is even lower. A pitcher has to be very lucky to win 4 or more in a row. The offense has to put up some runs on the board and the relief pitching has to shut down the opponent. When pitchers on winning streaks do lose, they get hammered. We should pay attention to the vegas/overseas odds on pitchers who have won 3 in a row or more. The lines are rigged to make pitchers on winning streaks favorites. If you are going to bet on a pitcher on a winning streak, most likely you will have to lay some wood. For example, Ryan Dempster is going to be favored probably -130 against the nationals on friday night. It is not a smart bet to take the cubs in this game. If you do bet on the cubs and Dempster to win his 4th straight, you will lose more money by laying the wood. By going against pitchers on winning streaks, you will rarely lay wood and as a result minimize losses.
I like your thinking for the most part here, but just beware of the elite pitchers that can and do go on long winning streaks. For the most past though, it is a good idea to fade overperforming pitchers.
LT, I appreciate your feedback. I believe our goal is here to improve our stats in handicapping and help others to win. I agree what your are saying about overperforming pitchers and elite pitchers. I have 3 games on Friday night with 3 overperforming pitchers with 3-0 records.
Ervin Santana
Ryan Dempster
Scott Olsen
Santana and Olsen are example of overperforming pitchers. Dempster reminds me of Braden Looper, reliever turned starter. I also take a look at the bullpens of these teams and how they use their bullpens. THe angels, cubs and marlins are playing a lot of games without any days off. Its not the starters that need a day off, its the bullpens that need it more. When a team has a day off, its much needed break for tired bullpens. Especially in modern day baseball where starters rarely go more than 6-7 innings.
I am leaning towards the Nationals, Brewers and Tigers on Friday night. I will make a decision on who I take after I see how the cubs, marlins and angels use their bullpens in games leading to friday. I also take a look at winning past streaks of overperforming pitchers. I also pay attention to the oddsmakers and how they move the lines. They move lines in one direction trying to trap bettors to bet on pitchers on winning streaks. On sunday, I got trapped in taking Looper and the cardinals on the run line and got hammered. THe line opened at -160 and jumped to -200. Looper had won 3 in a row and we all know that he was overperforming pitcher. Looper got lucky to start 3-0 but got blasted on sunday. I will not be betting on pitchers with winning streaks because you have to lay so much wood. Lets not get trapped again and take advantage of line movements favoring the underdogs (the giants started at +140 and ended at +180).
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Fading out starters who have won 3 or more in arow
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