Baseball Pick: Baltimore Orioles -130
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Detroit Tigers. There are several reasons for the Orioles to look back fondly on the second half of the 2010 season, and to be looking forward to 2011. They have a new Manager in Buck Showalter, several talented rookies or second-year players, and more talent in the minors than the average franchise. Since Showalter took over at the beginning of August, the Orioles are 30-22 and they tied the season series against their hated rivals, the Boston Red Sox, at nine games apiece. Tonight, Baltimore’s righthanded ace of the second half, Jeremy Guthrie will take the mound (Brian Matusz has earned the status of lefthanded ace). After going 3-10 with a 4.77 ERA prior to the All-Star break, Guthrie is now 7-4 with a 3.00 ERA since, and he’s 3-1 in his last five starts for this team while throwing over 200 innings for the second straight season. In what could be his final start in a Tiger uniform, righthanded veteran Jeremy Bonderman will take the mound tonight for his 29th start and Bonderman will be a free agent after the season and it’s quite possible that he will part ways with the only MLB team he’s ever played for. It likely could be a rocky final start for Bonderman as he is 2-3 with a 6.92 ERA in five career outings against the O’s covering just 27 innings. Take Baltimore. As always, good luck…

Baseball Pick: Pirates vs. Marlins Over 8.5
Florida returns home for their final series in Miami this season when they host the Pirates on Thursday night. The Marlins will send Chris Volstad to the mound. He’s 11-9 with a 4.63 ERA in 29 starts for the Marlins. The righty is coming in slightly hot having gone 15.7 innings without giving up a run. However, Volstad has lost both of his career starts to the Pirates including the one this season. In that game, he gave up five runs and five hits in five innings of work. Last year, Volstad gave up four runs and three hits in three innings pitched to the Pirates. Andrew McCutchen (2-5), Chris Snyder (2-4), Neil Walker (1-2), Pedro Alvarez (1-2), and Delwyn Young (1-1) have good numbers against the Marlins starter. Before yesterday’s game, the Pirates had scored four runs or more in five straight games and in six of their last seven games overall. Six of Pittsburgh’s last eight games have gone Over the total. The Marlins bullpen is 12-11 with a 4.44 ERA at home where they’ve blown 14 saves as well. Zach Duke has allowed at least three runs or more in all five of his September starts. The lefty is 3-7 with a 6.87 ERA in 11 road starts this season. He has yet to defeat the Marlins in six career starts. Duke gave up five runs and nine hits in 5.7 innings of work back in August to the Marlins. Dan Uggla (6-12), Chad Tracy (3-11), Hector Luna (3-6), Emilio Bonifacio (3-3), Gaby Sanchez (2-3), and Logan Morrison (1-3) all hit Duke well. The Marlins are 32-15 against lefties this season while hitting .268 against them. Pittsburgh’s bullpen is 7-17 on the road with an ERA over five. We expect a high-scoring game so we’ll recommend a play on the Over tonight between the Pirates and Marlins.

Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds
MLB Pick: Houston Astros -122 odds

Now that the Reds have clinched the National League Central, they will no longer be playing full lineups for the remaining four days of the regular season. The regulars got a night off last night and it showed as Cincinnati was shutout and while most of those players should be back in the lineup tonight, I don’t expect all of them to be in the entire game. Even with regular in, the Reds have struggled offensively, scoring three runs or fewer in eight of their last 12 games.

Houston snapped a three-game skid last night, its second three-game losing streak over the last 10 days and both of those have been aberrations of late. The Astros have posted one of the best records in baseball in the second half, despite losing six of their last eight games on this current roadtrip. The starting pitching has hit a small bump during this run but the last two games once again saw excellent performances. Houston starters have posted a 3.27 ERA since the All-Star break, third best in baseball.

Brett Myers is getting a solid price as he looks to finish the season on a high.

He is coming off one of his worst outings in a long time but he went six innings and according to the MLB website, he is one of only five different pitchers since 1920 to pitch at least six innings in 32 consecutive appearances in a season. That is pretty remarkable. Also according to the website, he has already tied career high in wins, set a career high with 218 innings pitched and has a career-best ERA of 2.89. 24 of his 32 start have been quality outings and Houston has won six of his last seven starts.

The Reds counter with Bronson Arroyo who has been pitching very well also but I don’t expect the team to let him go too long tonight with the playoffs around the corner. He has already broken his career high for wins so there is not a whole lot of incentive to keep him in this game for very long as they just want to keep him in rhythm before the postseason. He has been outstanding in his recent starts against the Astros and that actually helps us with the price offered tonight.

The Astros are 10-1 in Myers’ last 11 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game while going 4-0 in his last four starts against teams with a winning record. The Reds meanwhile are 2-8 in their last 10 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game and 1-4 in Arroyo’s last five home starts against teams with a losing record.

MLB Pick: Blue Jays vs. Twins Under 8
I’m playing the Under between the Jays & Twins on Thursday night. The Minnesota Twins, playing for home field advantage throughout the AL playoffs, finally broke their losing streak with a win last night over Kansas City. But it wasn’t because of their bats. Instead, it was due to a strong pitching effort from Scott Baker and the bullpen. The Twins are obviously missing Justin Morneau, and could be without the services of J.J. Hardy, Joe Mauer (again), and Jim Thome tonight. This likely means that Minnesota will have to get the job done with solid pitching once again. Francisco Liriano is just the man for the job. The Minnesota southpaw has put up tremendous numbers at Target Field this season, including a 2.83 ERA & 1.15 WHIP. Liriano hasn’t faced the Blue Jays often, but he has held them to just one earned run and nine hits in eight innings of work. And this is a Blue Jay lineup that plates just 3.4 rpg against lefties, winning just 12 of 34 games this season. Shawn Hill will make his fourth start of September for the Jays. He owns a solid 2.81 ERA through his first three. Even if the players mentioned above do suit-up for the Twins, I expect them to have their hands full with Hill. The Twins are on a 14-5-1 run to the Under when Liriano throws on five days rest. And the Jays are on a 6-0 Under streak in games against lefthanded starters. Look for the battle between the Jays and Twins to stay Under the total on Thursday evening.

MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners +1.5 -140
On Thursday the MLB pick is on the Seattle Mariners. Game 974 at 10:10 eastern. Seattle looks like a live dog with a nice pitching edge here tonight. Seattle has won 18 of 25 here at home vs Oakland. When the total is 7 or less in their home games they are 20-13. Not bad for a team well under .500 on the year. Oakland is a dismal 1-10 on the road when the total is 7 or less in their road games. Oakland looks like their ready for the season to end. They have lost 6 straight. In the Pitching matchup they have G.Gonzlaez on the mound and he has a 5.79 era over his past 3 starts. Seattle counters with Fister here tonight. Fister has a solid 3.28 home era and has dominated Oakland with 3 wins this season. He has allowed just 3 runs in 19 innings of work against them this season. Look for Seattle to take Game 1 of this series tonight. Those looking for something to pound, consider the 5* MLB Diamond Cutter system that has cashed 90% of the time, has a 32-4 Power angle and wins by 4 runs per game. I also have a solid system side in the NCAAF Game tonight that also has 3 big Power Angles. For the MLB play take the Seattle Mariners tonight. RV