[pat venditto]

50k it will take 1 more bet after this one wins. (assuming my book lets me wager 30k on my next play) If not I will spread my 30k into 6-8 books if needed and then hit my 50k.

this one is 12780 to win 19809

[pat venditto]

arnold you dont understand i'm not going all in unless i know im going to win. i'm not risking being bust for 3-4 months without a 99% edge in my head i can visualize that this is the winner.

If it takes me a week to find my all in winner then i wont bet more than $1 per bet until i find it im very selective. I actually am already capping a game on saturday that im pretty sure will be my next huge bet. still making the final decision.

I have no doubt in my mind about the rockies tonight

[diogee]

The Rockies won 19 in a row last year. Surely they can win one today. Write-up from fadethefish.net from yesterday but still applies today.

[Arnold]

50k it will take 1 more bet after this one wins. (assuming my book lets me wager 30k on my next play) If not I will spread my 30k into 6-8 books if needed and then hit my 50k.

this one is 12780 to win 19809

So basically, you're trying to be a 100% bettor? Do you really think it's possible?

arnold you dont understand i'm not going all in unless i know im going to win.

You're saying it's a lock, but anyone with a little bit of betting experience will tell you that there is no such thing.

I actually am already capping a game on saturday that im pretty sure will be my next huge bet. still making the final decision.

You might not get that far. I can't believe people can be so naive. Obviously you haven't lost yet. Hopefully, after you'll lose, you will learn the lesson. If I were you, I would stop after today and utilize proper money management.

[pat venditto]

arnold i wouldnt have all my money on this if it were gonna win. if you want to lose bet the padres. if you wanna win back the rockies tonight.

[Arnold]

arnold i wouldnt have all my money on this if it were gonna win. if you want to lose bet the padres. if you wanna win back the rockies tonight.

Just tell me, how do you KNOW (not think, but know) that they will win? Can you see the future? Do you have tomorrow's newspaper?

[pat venditto]

if you want to win bet with me sir thats al you need to know.

[Arnold]

if you want to win bet with me sir thats al you need to know.

OK dude, you need a reality check real soon. I hope you lose tonight.

[diogee]

I hope you lose tonight.

On the Rockies for the usual 1 unit...Peavy doesn't have any value at the high price.

[Arnold]

On the Rockies for the usual 1 unit...Peavy doesn't have any value at the high price.

I was already on the Padres in the BIG UNIT contest. Peavy is one of the best in the game. I'm not sure why you don't see value here.

[chipski]

though I see this early nl west showdown as a one run game and could go either way , this thread has to be to create some serious ..... you cant be any good to just go all in for thousands of dollars unless you have access to more $ .
this kind of strategy and thinking just like Arnold was saying is not how you succeed .
BUT YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT .
eventually you will lose an all in bet for thousands of dollars so whats the sense in even being in the game .
I know this is bs but felt like adding , only with good $ management can anyone STAY AHEAD OF THE GAME .
GL I hope Rocks win if this is a for real bet .

add :actually I see your strategy thinking , playing the due theory that Peavy is due to go down and Francis is due to win , Peavy gave up 6 runs his last start out .... but really now , sometimes a team will reel off an inconceivable # of wins when a good pitcher is starting , Peavy doesn't have to win but his team can get the W when he starts .
playing the due theory can have you broke , best to back teams that are winning and spread out your bets . ( sharing some real info )
GO ROCKIES . amazing

[diogee]

I agree that Peavy is one of the best in the game without a doubt...with the lack of run support I just saw more value in the Rockies as a large dog.

[pat venditto]

I said numerous times im not doubting peavy will pitch good.
BUT THE PADS DONT Have AN OFFENSE. Francis will cakewalk thru this lineup.


and yes this is a real wager why would i waste my time bulshitting?

[fiveteamer]

You're putting up 12k against Jake at home? gl.

[chipski]

okay , so Meridith and Rusch come out the pen last night for the Pads sucking it up so that means they will be able to hit Peavy 1.64 era . Your play would have to be more gut than anything else .
Rockies compiled 7 hits and 2 walks in that 9th inn off 2 Pads that maybe had the freakin over , right , right . lol
So lets hope those 7 hits and 2 walks in the 9th inn (that set up this thinkin) off of 2 Sd pitchers that could not hold Peavy's lunchbox are worth an all in for 120 hundred dollar bills or more .
There is nothing wrong with a gut pick .
This is gonna be something . gl main man

[moneyboy]

You said you have a 99% chance of hitting this play. According to an article I read, a study done by Harvard professors shows that 5% of baseball games have been fixed over the past 30 years. Keep going all in for the next 20 games or show, and guess what'll happen -- you'll be broke! If you feel that confident, then put down 10% at most, don't put up the bank.

[NEP Dynasty]

Vendittoburied.com

[tab]

THe padres as a team has the lowest batting average in night games. As a team they are hitting in the 220s. I believe that the padres are dead last in hit and runs scored in night games. Even to go further, the Padres are hitting worst in night home games. Francis has good numbers with most of the padre hitters. There are two hitters in the padre lineup that have put up good numbers against Francis. Green is 10/31 and Kouzmanoff is 7/15 with 2 homers, 6 rbi's. Padre hitters are not adjusting from day to night (sunset) at night games. ANd the baseball does not carry well in night games in San Diego at this time in the season.

[mofome]

he did make this bet, i know the bookie who took it.

[NEP Dynasty]

Hahaha very good point.

[pat venditto]

this isnt a fake wager mofo.

[pat venditto]

2 hour countdown getting pumped

[ryanXL977]

what if adrian gonzales sits tonite
i like to wait for lineups priori to bets

[rake922]

Rockies went from +180 to +155

Over 21,000 wagers placed and 28% of those are on Rockies; 72% on Padres

[tab]

It is not going to matter if adrian gonzales plays tonite. He is 4 for 23 lifetime versus Francis. Gonzales is 9 for 42 in night games in 2008. Gonzales is in a slump and so is the rests of the padres lineup. I am surprised that a book took that bet. I wonder at what this bet was placed at?

[chipski]

it doesn't matter if a team is or was in a so called slump , all it takes is a bloop and a blast 2 out of nine innings to put 4 runs on the board . many ways to manufacture runs , but the o/u 7 runs is supposed to be a tell tale sign ... but it is not , the o/u in a pitchers park like sd would always be 7 with 2 supposed aces facing off against one another .
either team could explode for some runs in this one , what happened yesterday , or last year is not a factor .

BUTTT you would say it was after you see the game and it HAPPENS TO FIT into whatever category you had it in , it misses your cateogry then no one really talks about it , why would ya . lol

[pat venditto]

chipski i didnt understand one thing u said.lets not beat around the bush here pal. rockies will win this game.

[chipski]

slump smump we'll see mo

[mundane]

pat venditto im pulling for u bud! ballsy fuking move! i like it!

[ryanXL977]

gonzalez is out
gotta like colorado now

[rake922]

gonzalez is out
gotta like colorado now

looks to be correct... Tony Clark is gonna start at 1st for the Padres

[chipski]

chipski i didnt understand one thing u said.lets not beat around the bush here pal. rockies will win this game.

iffin da team gets a man on da base by walking by getting 4 balls and someone after him in the lineup hits a hr that would be 2 runs .
iffin a man gets a bloop hit and gets to second by stealing the dang base while someone after him gets a double that would be 2 runs . iffin a man gets hit by the pitch then steals second , advances to 3rd on a ground ball followed by a long fly ball , that beba 4 runs .

all these runs would be bs to anyone who had the rockies or the under . dabba baba boo better

[St. Andrew]

iffin da team gets a man on da base by walking by getting 4 balls and someone after him in the lineup hits a hr that would be 2 runs .
iffin a man gets a bloop hit and gets to second by stealing the dang base while someone after him gets a double that would be 2 runs . iffin a man gets hit by the pitch then steals second , advances to 3rd on a ground ball followed by a long fly ball , that beba 4 runs .

all these runs would be bs to anyone who had the rockies or the under . dabba baba boo better

Chipski, do you think this guy actually has 12K to wager? I don't.

What a joke. He's putting the whole board on, but not me.

[pat venditto]

sir you dont have to believe me thats fine if i lose this bet which i wont i promise u u wont see me post for months since i will be barreled in. i will win this game

[chipski]

Man , I would say he has more like a grand on it if he is in fact a legitimate gambler . Venditto is def a movie star name . If I were making up names to be a sports gambler on a sports forum , Vin Diesel would come to mind , then tweak it and come up with Venditto baby ! lol