[Willie Bee]

2005 Record: 82-80, NL West Champs

After taking the NL West almost by default and being swept aside in the first round of the playoffs by St. Louis, the Padres looked like a team that was just a starting pitcher and decent bat away from returning as the team to beat in 2006. San Diego traded for Chris Young during the winter to fill the starting pitching slot and inked Mike Piazza to boost their offense. So that makes them the team to beat in the NLW, right?

Wrong.

Working backwards on the roster, the Padres’ bullpen underwent backend changes since the end of 2005. Trevor Hoffman hit 40+ saves for the seventh time in his career and though he’s approaching 40 fast, he remains a solid closer. Scott Linebrink had another excellent season setting up, and the Astros undoubtedly rue the day they waived the native Texan just in time to see him blossom for San Diego. Clay Hensley, another native Texan, had a marvelous season and will likely work alongside Linebrink in setup. Hensley has been a starter in the minors and fared well with a less-than-intimidating fastball by keeping the ball in the park.

Part of the reason Bochy won’t try Hensley in the rotation is the loss of three key relievers: Rudy Seanez, Chris Hammond and Akinori Otsuka. San Diego hopes they filled Hammond’s lefty role with Alan Embree who had elbow cleanup surgery following a horrible 2005 with the Yanks. Veteran Doug Brocail is back with the team he started his career with and is a strong candidate for middle relief. Brian Sikorski, after chunking in Japan from 2001-05, brings a decent fastball and slider to the bullpen.

Young Jake Peavy returns as the ace and has all of the makings for a viable Cy Young candidate for years to come. That is if he can shake the injury bug. Elbow and shoulder pains have cost him starts each of the past two years, and the Friars can ill-afford to have him missing from the rotation in 2006. Young, the 6-10 former hoops star at Princeton, falls in the #2 slot, and has potential. But Young has never proven to be a workhorse, so getting him over the 200 IP hump could be crucial.

Behind that duo are veterans Woody Williams, Shawn Estes and Chan Ho Park, plus young Dewon Brazelton. I’ve been a Williams fan for a long time, but he’s made it through a full season just once in the last four seasons. Estes and Park don’t excite me at all. Brazelton has some upside, but he’s yet to show it on the MLB level. The Pads also have Tim Stauffer and Cesar Carillo, a pair of #1 picks expected to start the year in the minors. With the health concerns for the present rotation, both could see ample time in 2006 for San Diego.

The new stadium in San Diego is blamed for the team’s offensive woes, and I’m getting tired of hearing it quite frankly. The truth is that the Padres have scored more runs the first two years playing in their new stadium than they did the last two years in old Jack Murphy, or whatever corporate was eventually hung outside. I’ve no doubt that it might be a less hitter-friendly stadium than some, but it’s an overused excuse for what I think has been an underachieving group of bats. If Phil Nevin and others had been able to remain healthy or if Sean Burroughs wasn’t a bust as he’s proven, the fans and writers who only repeat what they’re told wouldn’t be walking around lamenting how tough it was to score a run or two.

Piazza probably can’t be counted on for more than 110 games, especially if he’s working exclusively behind the plate. He will be key to the offense along with Ryan Klesko and Vinny Castilla at first and third. If recent trends play out and that trio combines for fewer than 350 games, the stadium will probably get the blame again. The Padres have Adrian Gonzalez to replace Klesko whenever he does go on the DL. But the 3B/C reserves are less promising with names like Geoff Blum, Mark Bellhorn and Doug Mirabelli.

I like the outfield with Dave Roberts, Mike Cameron and Brian Giles. There is solid speed and defense in that mix. In reserve are Termel Sledge and Eric Young, plus promising prospect Ben Johnson on the horizon.

The middle infield is a bit of an unknown and filed in my Below Average folder for the time being. Khalil Greene saw his on-base percentage plummet to below .300 in 2005, no doubt due to that nasty ballpark effect I guess. Injuries might have also played a role, and he did up his RBI total to 70 despite almost 20 fewer games than 2004. The 2B job is going to be a battle between rookie Josh Barfield, Mark Bellhorn and Bobby Hill. For whatever reason, the Padres seem to have soured a bit on Barfield despite a .310 average, 15 HR and 20 SB at Triple-A last season.

San Diego has a lot of questions right now, just like every other team. But one thing that bothers me most at this time is what I perceive to be a bit of a power struggle in the front office after owner John Moores hired Sandy Alderson to come in and be GM Kevin Towers’ boss. At the least, there’s a lot of flux amongst the suits, and that tends to work its way down the chain.

Key Performer(s): Infield corners Klesko and Castilla, along with Piazza. They don’t have to hit 20 HR each, but they do need to stay and healthy drive in runs.

Camp Question(s): Deciding on a second baseman, and finding capable, fit starting pitching behind Peavy and Young.

My Play: The projections came out at 81 wins for San Diego, just a game under their 2005 total and four above the o/u 77 at Pinnacle. Sounds like an easy over to go with, and I do think Bochy has the ability to squeeze extra out of his players. But this is one team I’m personally holding off on until I see some spring action.

[El Guapo]

The Padres are my favorirte baseball team but your right that they might not be as good this year. They always see to have to many players get hurt and they beat up on the Giants last year who are going to be better with Barry Bonds back.

Paul

[bigboydan]

This whole division is going to be an interesting one this year.

the thing about the Pads is, they are still the class of this pitiful division this year. 90 games will win it this year, and i feel they should get win right around that range.

[Illusion]

Whoever finishes .500 should win that division, lol.

[Willie Bee]

Pinnacle moved up to 78 - o(+106); u(-122).

The Greek is a hook higher at 78½ with the o(+110) and u(-130).

[Willie Bee]

My Play: The projections came out at 81 wins for San Diego, just a game under their 2005 total and four above the o/u 77 at Pinnacle. Sounds like an easy over to go with...

After winning 14 of 15 from the end of April through Mother's Day, the Friars have fallen back with just a pair of dubya's in their last six games to put them on pace for an 83-84 win season currently.

The offense is holding them back some with a team OPS barely over .700, next-to-last in the NL. Their 50 HR also rank next to the bottom, with the Cubs the team below them in both columns. But San Diego has still managed to score more runs than those stats would lead you to believe, part of the reason being an outstanding team SB ratio, 48 successes against just nine caught. Not one hitter is posting any eye-popping stats to date. Brian Giles (.281) and Dave Roberts (.280) are the top-hitting regulars. Rookie 2B Josh Barfield is having a quiet but effective first season. First sacker Adrian Gonzalez is finally getting a shot to play regularly and doing ok in place of Ryan Klesko who isn't expected back until late July at the earliest.

If one batter is to blame, it would be Vinny Castilla who has managed but two long balls and a .552 OPS in his 45 games. He doesn't have to slug 'em over the fence to be helpful, but that .552 OPS is totally unacceptable for any major league regular.

San Diego has one of the better defenses going with only 27 errors leading to just 16 unearned runs surrendered by the pitching staff, lowest in the NL.

The mound corps boasts a 3.99 ERA, third in the NL, and a 2.38 K:BB ratio that is good for 2nd-best. Most of the outstanding pitching has been turned in by the bullpen. Trevor Hoffman is still closing games out with a perfect 13-for-13 in save ops, a tiny 1.23 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. Scott Cassidy, Brian Sweeney and Scott Linebrink have provided solid setup and middle relief.

Chris Young leads the starting staff with five wins and a 3.39 ERA. Oddly enough, he's pitched better on the road (2.25 ERA, 5 HR) than he has at home (4.90, 8 HR) where he should benefit from a more spacious park. Jake Peavy (4-6) has been a bit inconsistent, as have Chan Ho Park and Clay Hensley. Woody Williams, out since mid-May with a strained calf, is not expected back until just before the All-Star break, and he could give the rotation a boost upon his return.

With 60 games behind them in 2005, San Diego was 35-25 and 3½ up in the NL West. The Padres would play 8-games below .500 from that point on last year, finishing at 82-80 for the NL West title. Four games below their 2005 mark at this point, the Pads are 3-games back in the NLW. They open a 6-game homestand tonight against the Marlins with the Dodgers next up. Trips to the Angels and Rangers follow before a 10-game homestand opposite the Mariners, A's and Giants. A trip to Philly and DC leads them into the All-Star Game.