Originally Posted by
Arnold
OK, that's not that hard to back test. Here are some results since 1997 (regular season only):
Betting all road underdogs of >= 130, gets you +79 units.
Betting road underdogs of >= 130, under this system, where the difference between dog's winning % and its odd is >= .05, gets you +151 units.
It also showed most profit per bet when the underdog is exactly on a 1 game winning streak and the home favorite is on a winning streak (.096). If the home team is on a losing streak, then profit per bet is less (.053), but is still greater than having the dog team on a losing streak (.016). If the dog is on a 1 game winning streak, the unit profit per bet is .061.
PS. I need to add that road dogs on a winning streak greater than 1, and home faves on a losing streak, lose you money (-6.5 units). If home team is on a winning streak in the same situation, then you gain +18 units and .059 units per bet.