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Wind at Wrigley today???
Must be blowing out hard to get a total of 11, EV with Wainwright/Gorzelanny on the hump, and two offenses who have struggled lately??
Last night the line was 12.5, and it just got over 13, most in part due to Dempster implosion in the 2nd where he gave up 9 runs, 6 by ways of Uribe bombs.
Guys, I would like an good update before jumping on board here.
blowing from left to right: 22mph.
Up to 11.5 now. Usually I like avoiding these type of lines, but I cant get off board here.
Wainwright is in the top 15 in MLB starting pitcher GB:FB ratio. He's only given up 14 HR's in 224 innings (1 per 16 innings) and only 3 in his last 10 starts. Based on the numbers, you would think he might have some success keeping the ball out of the jet streams. Wainwright strikes a lot of guys out as well, and its hard to hit a bomb is you cant make contact. With his devastating curve, it's difficult to get good contact off this guy.
Now Gorzelanny on the other hand isn't quite as efficient with his GB:FB ratio as it's about average in MLB, just a notch over 1. Over the course of the year, he has only given up 10 bombs in 127 innings (1 per 12.7 innings) and only 2 at Wrigley in 69 innings....WOW. A hitters park, where in 12 starts he has to have pitched in these conditions a few times. Gorzelanny strikes out a decent amount, but has had control issues this year, let's hope he gets the ball over the plate. I just took a look at historical numbers, and current Cards who could potentially play today (including Wainwright) have had 87 AB's off Gorzelanny, and not one has hit a home run, not even Pujols in 19 at bats.
Sure this game can still go over if the HR's are limited, but a line of 11.5 tells us Vegas or the public expects the balls to be flying.
Even with the wind here, I'll take my chances.
Seems like Under is the play, but these Wrigley wind games are a coin flip, logic seems to go out the window.
For whatever reason I have followed many of them this year and it is often not the HR but fly balls turn into doubles, pitchers walk people becuase they are afraid to attack, errors are made, etc...
Hard to predict, but if I had to play it would be under based on Wainwright's ability to shut down the Cubs and the Cards ability for their offense to not show up.
Screw it, I just played the Under BIG
On July 7/23 these same teams met in exact same conditions, wind the same, Friday afternoon game at Wrigley, etc..
Game ended 5-0 and went way under the total of 12 at the time.
Current total for this is 11.5 and with Wainwright looking for win #20 I gotta go under.
I know it is a sucker bet but I am a sucker I guess for this one.
That series the wind was this way for Saturday too, and that went under as well.
Though much closer total of 6-5 (11) and the total was 11.5 on Saturday.
Looking at their matchups those were the only 2 times the line was ever double digits this year and Wainwright has never pitched this year in a game with a double digit line.
Like your pick slimp gl
hope you get it
jck
big wind is a factor, but you should check for other factors to make a big bet
IMO, all comes down to Wainy's 1st inning (guy has been awful of late in the 1st), if he follows suit and gives up 2 or 3 in the first, then I think it will turn into a shoot-out, if he gets by the 1st he will cruise and it will play under
The lineups today make me like the under even more.
The Cards are playing Miles, Descalso, Stavinoha and Pagnozzi.
The Cubs are playing Fuld, Snyder and Hill.
Now I'm just waiting for a better price....not sure if I'll get it though.
Cardinals gonna go out on a lil run. I'm riding with em.
I jumped on the under at 11.5 cause I don't think it is going to hit 12 at my book.
If you can get 12 all the better.
I dont think I'll get 12....but I would like to pay -110 and not -115.
Leaning Over, definetely!
I remember that exact game and jumped on the under. I can see the same thing happening today, but haven't made a play yet.Originally Posted by slimpickins
The public is heavy on the under.
I'll admit I don't like siding with the public a lot because the public tends to lose in the long run but sometimes its the right call. Remember um -3 last night? What about colts -3 last weekend?The public is heavy on the under
Wind blowing out to RF at 22 mph.
Ya this is a coinflip for sure
Took the over. Last three season I think the over is something like 12/15 when wind blows out to right at Wrigley. Of course that doesn't always account for big totals though.
I followed your quote today EaglesPhan.....and it worked out perfectly
Feliz at third, not Descalso
And Craig is playing not Stavinoha.......some websites got it wrong.
Hmmmmmm..........I use sports websites knowledge to help me support my decision, such as posted starting lineups......and what happens?? 1st inning a guy not in the lineup ends up hitting a 3 run bomb. I hope him and Feliz don't come back to burn me.
Not a good start for our under but Wainwright is really the important factor in the total IMO.
Holy hell... not a good start for us under betters.
your right slimpickins.......alot of this depends on Wainwright, and he got out of the 1st untouched. Hopefully a good sign of things to come.
The public is heavy on the under
Best to say... the squares are on the "under" "public" is used too much.. We are all the "public",right?
Guys in here not to be a know it all but if your under loses or wins is not the matter here. You all use your multitude of stats and other factors and when the line is tellling you something completely different. Do you not think the linesmakers knows all you know? There comfortable with the "high" number, shouldn't you be?
Last, but not least..if you never check another stat in your life or learn another damn thing..ALWAYS PLAY OVERS ON 'HIGH' TOTALS IN ALL SPORTS AND ALWAYS PLAY UNDERS ON LOW TOTALS IN ALL SPORTS. If you listen to that you will win more than you usually do. No need to overthink things and pretend to be smarter than the linesmakers people.
YIKES....Gorzelanny doesnt look sharp at all. Let's hope Wainer spins a gem.
Especially when wainright hits a double
"ALWAYS PLAY OVERS ON 'HIGH' TOTALS IN ALL SPORTS AND ALWAYS PLAY UNDERS ON LOW TOTALS IN ALL SPORTS"
Not the best of advice dude. It doesnt matter the angle you take or the trend you use....its pretty close to 50/50 every time.
Son of a fukk stick!
Have it your wayI was trying to be PC, but nevermind.
This under looks doomed now, still aways to go.
I am only watching online, curious to see how hard some of these have been hit thus far or if the wind is playing hevoc with the ball.
Was hoping for strikeouts, every one seems successful at hitting the ball in the air you would think the pitchers would pitch to induce ground balls and for strikeouts on a day like this.
Hitters must be drolling at the chance to get to bat, and I would assume would over anxiously swing at crap in the dirt.
I know Soriano would be he does that wind or no wind.
YA, not many ground balls at all. I dont remember any actually in the 1st two innings. Remember last night, San Fran went up 9-0 in the 2nd inning in similar conditions, and the game ended 13-0. You would think Wainwright is maybe a notch above MadBum.
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