Ok.. I decided I am going to do mini writeups for ALL my leans today. I will update later exactly what I am playing. If theres a big game etc. These writeups help me organize and I am sure if you read my writeups, it should help you out as well.
I will not be listing trending after trend. I will pick out a few that are telling.. BUT believe me... MOST of my plays have overwhelming trends.. unless I really like/LOVE the pitching match up, team has not been playing bad, and I see nice value..
On to the games..
Braves/Mets UNDER 7 Last night this was at -105 and now it's at +105.. Obviously not where I want it be.. We'll see what happens
Atlanta Braves in all games this season are 70-20 OVER/UNDER. In divisional games UNDER is 34-20.
New Mets are 79-54 UNDER on the 2010 season. 11-4 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 to +125. In home games they are 10 games for the UNDER. 40-30. Against right handed started pitchers they are 61-48 UNDER.
Both teams have solid bullpens with Braves all together and Mets at home.
Pitching matchup is Tim Hudson vs. Dillion Gee
Tim Hudson is 17-13 UNDER in all starts and has had his last 2 out of 3 games go UNDER. Life time against Braves he is 12-7 UNDER with his last 3 all going UNDER. Totals runs his last 3 of 6, 5 ans 4.
Going for the Mets is the rookie Dillion Gee. Gee does not have much experience but he has pitched well his first 2 starts. I normally lean pitcher when a pitcher is new, pitching well, and the other team has not seen him before. And he is at home, which should help. In his 2 starts he is 2-0 UNDER with a 0.69 ERA.
6 out of 7 in this series this season in New York has gone UNDER. 12 out of 16 overall this year.
A few trends to back this play up, as there are many many..
Under is 7-1 in Hudsons last 8 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Under is 7-1 in Hudsons last 8 starts vs. National League East.
Under is 7-2 in Braves last 9 vs. National League East.
Under is 5-1 in Hudsons last 6 road starts.
Under is 11-4 in Braves last 15 during game 2 of a series
Under is 6-0 in Mets last 6 Saturday games.
Under is 6-2-1 in Mets last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 26-10-1 in Mets last 37 games following a loss.
Under is 6-0 in Mets last 6 Saturday games.
Under is 24-10 in Mets last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-3 in Mets last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Under is 4-0 in Hudsons last 4 road starts vs. Mets.
Under is 6-0 in Hudsons last 6 starts vs. Mets.
Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in New York.
Under is 14-4 in the last 18 meetings.
Under is 5-1 in Darlings last 6 games behind home plate.
Under is 4-1 in Darlings last 5 Saturday games behind home plate vs. Atlanta.
Under is 18-7-1 in Darlings last 26 Saturday games behind home plate.
Under is 5-1 in Darlings last 6 games behind home plate.
I would also lean on a smaller bets Mets +125
I think this is great value for the Mets.. Mets are a very good home team. Mets are 44-28 at home this season. Braves are 32-41 on the road this season. Gee is a new pitcher, I think he will pitch well today.. and Hudson has not been like his normal self with a 6.38 ERA his last 3 games losing all 3.
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win.
Braves are 1-4 in Hudsons last 5 starts as a favorite.
Braves are 1-4 in Hudsons last 5 starts.
Braves are 1-4 in Hudsons last 5 starts on grass
Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Mets are 12-4 in their last 16 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.
Home team is 4-1 in Darlings last 5 games behind home plate vs. New York.
Home team is 4-1 in Darlings last 5 games behind home plate vs. Atlanta.
Home team is 10-3 in Darlings last 13 Saturday games behind home plate
I have a lot of plays today. I will update more write ups in this thread as the day goes on. This is the earliest game for me, the only afternoon game.. Both these plays will NOT be big plays.. UNDER a little bit more than the Mets.. small to medium plays..
Phillies/Nationals OVER 9.5 -110 This game has moved slightly in favor of me.
I do like the OVER in this game. Stats/trends/pitching back this up.. but I do play with caution. I know this philly team very well.. and I also know Kyle Kendrick... and when Kendrick has something to prove. He has the ability to pitch very well.. BUT he does pitch better AWAY than HOME, so they does come into play for me.
To be honest, there isn't too much first look stats on the over on this game for this Nationals team. They are an UNDER team.. The play is there for the OVER though and I will show it. There biggest OVER trend is that their pitcher, Jordan Zimmermann is an OVER pitcher.
Phillies bats have been red hot. Phillies are 49-38 OVER after a win. And they are 2 games over 500 OVER against their division. That to me is a key stat because a lot of their division are UNDER playing against their division.
The main key to this play for me is the pitching match up.
Kendrick has a 7.07 ERA his last 3 starts. He has a over 5 ERA at home this season. I do believe both these teams will hit today. Kendrick's life time numbers againsat the Nationals are poor. His last 3 games against them ALL WENT OVER. He has a career ERA against the Nationals at 7.06.
Jordan Zimmermann has been injured for most of the season. His first start this season was August 26th and this year OVER is 3-0. Last year , his rookie season, he had 16 starts with a 4.63 ERA He has not pitched well on the road and I expect the same tonight. Combining with Kendrick tonight. I expect this to be a high scoring game and it going OVER.
Zimmermann has 1 start against the Phillies last year. The only start in his career giving up 5 runs in 5 innings in Washington. 14 runs scored in that game.
Below are key stats/trends to prove my play.
Over is 9-1-1 in Zimmermanns last 11 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Over is 5-1-1 in Zimmermanns last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 9-2-1 in Zimmermanns last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Zimmermanns last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Zimmermanns last 5 starts overall.\
Over is 4-1-1 in Zimmermanns last 6 starts vs. National League East.
Over is 4-1-1 in Zimmermanns last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-2-1 in Zimmermanns last 10 starts as an underdog.
Over is 6-2-1 in Zimmermanns last 9 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 games as a home favorite.
Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 home games.
Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 5-1 in Kendricks last 6 starts during game 2 of a series.
Over is 8-2 in Kendricks last 10 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.
Over is 17-5 in Kendricks last 22 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 16-5 in Kendricks last 21 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Kendricks last 8 Saturday starts.
Over is 21-7 in Kendricks last 28 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 23-10 in Kendricks last 33 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 29-14 in Kendricks last 43 starts as a favorite.
Over is 6-0 in Kendricks last 6 starts vs. Nationals.
Over is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia.
I like this play as much as the Braves/Mets write ups. Nothing big, but medium plays..
Ok. I really want to get my BIG play in to everyone.. Seriously, I haven't seen a card like this in weeks. I still have a couple more plays, but I want to get to you guys the BIG PLAY first before I continue.. This game is exciting to me. This OVER I am VERY VERY confident will hit. Love the line movement too and another reason I want to get it to you guys right away.
Blue Jays/Red Sox OVER 9 -125 it was at -115 last night and think their is a good realistic chance it goes to 9.5 VERY SOON.
Getting a little drained by doing all this hard work on the games and these write ups. I will try to keep this to the point but with detail.
I am going to center in on the pitching match up tonight. These 2 teams tend to lean OVER. anybody can look like up. Both teams lean OVER strongly in this spot.
Pitching match up.
RICKY ROMERO vs. JOSH BECKETT
Beckett is 2-1 OVER his last 3 starts. He has been pitching well. BUT he also has very strong stats and trends for OVER against the Blue Jays. 9-4 OVER life time against Blue Jays. His last 3 have gone OVER against Blue Jays with totals of 25, 11, and 19 runs. He has an over 7 ERA life time against the Blue Jays. Pitching very bad against them his last 3 starts at least. Beckett has a home ERA of over 5.
Romero is 3-0 OVER his last 3 starts. He has a ERA of 5.40 his last 3 starts. Romero is a different pitcher on the road than at home. Totals of 14, 9, and 18 runs. Has an ERA of 4.22 on the road. Career wise against the Red Sox have not been good. Career ERA of 7.89 with 6-2 OVER. His last 3 against Red Sox have ALL gone OVER with totals of 9, 12, and 17.
This game WILL GO OVER. Trends/stats below to back this up.
Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-0-1 in Blue Jays last 6 Saturday games.
Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 3-0-1 in Blue Jays last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-0 in Romeros last 4 starts on grass.
Over is 6-0 in Romeros last 6 starts during game 2 of a series.
Over is 5-0 in Romeros last 5 starts overall.
Over is 4-0 in Romeros last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-0 in Romeros last 6 starts vs. American League East.
Over is 8-0 in Romeros last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Romeros last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 8-2 in Romeros last 10 starts as a road underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Romeros last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a home favorite.
Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 home games.
Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 vs. American League East.
Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Over is 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 4-1 in Red Sox last 5 games following a loss.
Over is 7-0-1 in Becketts last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-0 in Becketts last 5 starts vs. Blue Jays.
Over is 4-0 in Romeros last 4 starts vs. Red Sox.
Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Boston
Over is 11-2 in Holbrooks last 13 games behind home plate vs. Boston.
Over is 5-1 in Holbrooks last 6 games behind home plate.
Ok next plays.. are not as strong as the others but may update.. I am just going to do the final 3 plays on here and be done.
Reds/Astros UNDER 8 -105. don't really like this line movement so far, but not ready to make any judgments because I like the play a good amount. It was at -115 last night.
I really like the pitching match up in this game.
Reds lean OVER as a team but I will explain why UNDER
Houston LEANS UNDER don't really need to explain... They are a UNDER team. They have been hitting the ball a little bit better as of late, but still not stopping me. I really like this pitching match up like I said.
BRONSON ARROYO vs. NELSON FIGUEROA
Arroyo is 8-5 UNDER on season. Figueroa is 6-1 UNDER. Last 7 starts with Arroyo against Houston have ALL been UNDERS.
i also lean Houston +122. and trends/stats show why. I think this is very good value for Astros at home as an underdog.
First over/under trends.
Under is 4-0 in Arroyos last 4 Saturday starts.
Under is 3-0-1 in Arroyos last 4 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
Under is 4-0-1 in Arroyos last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 11-2-3 in Arroyos last 16 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 5-1-1 in Arroyos last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 5-1-1 in Arroyos last 7 road starts.
Under is 17-4-5 in Arroyos last 26 starts as a favorite.
Under is 4-1-1 in Arroyos last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record
Under is 5-1-2 in Reds last 8 vs. National League Central.
Under is 8-1 in Astros last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-1 in Astros last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Astros last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Under is 6-1 in Astros last 7 during game 2 of a series.
Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.
Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games as a home underdog.
Under is 8-2 in Astros last 10 vs. National League Central.
Under is 4-0 in Figueroas last 4 starts as an underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Figueroas last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Under is 5-1 in Figueroas last 6 starts on grass.
Under is 5-1 in Figueroas last 6 starts overall.
Under is 4-0 in Arroyos last 4 road starts vs. Astros.
Under is 7-0 in Arroyos last 7 starts vs. Astros.
TRENDS FOR HOUSTON TO WIN
Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 9-0 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.
Astros are 14-3 in their last 17 games as an underdog.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.0
Astros are 5-1 in Figueroas last 6 starts.
Astros are 5-1 in Figueroas last 6 starts on grass
Reds are 0-6 in their last 6 road games.
Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Reds are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Reds are 1-4 in Arroyos last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Reds are 1-4 in Arroyos last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
Reds are 3-13 in Arroyos last 16 Saturday starts.
Home team is 5-1 in Wendelstedts last 6 Saturday games behind home plate.
Home team is 4-1 in Wendelstedts last 5 Saturday games behind home plate vs. Houston
Home team is 16-5 in Wendelstedts last 21 games behind home plate vs. Houston.
These 2 bets I am leaning small... and I feel Orioles ML or Orioles +1.5 is very good value right now too
yeah i hear ya. rough night... I didn't have chance to come on.. didn't bet the phillies over bc of the line movement. went really small on houston and the under so that didnt really hurt.... i made a huge mistake with the red sox.. I put in the play in the afternoon.. and I would say a 1.5 hours before game time, line movement moved completely against me.. And I knew there would be a good chance I would be in trouble... Taught me a huge lesson.. to wait to put in my play.. because if I waited I would of gone real small or no play.. I knew with the line movement something was wrong.. Saw line movement with the phillies over against me... and didn't play it... I waited to last minute to put it in or not, what I need to do for the future.. like I said.. learned lesson and i will be better..
Tough night.. going to move on to Sunday's games... I have been doing soo good in baseball. I am very confident I will bounce back. Sorry to any that followed
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