[stingyrivers]

yep.... the detroit hedge wasn't a bad idea

[buztah]

Sorry, guys.

[stingyrivers]

onto the 2 pm games, man that one sucked, they shoulda got outta that inning... i hope contreras gets shelled the rest of the way

[CashMoney]

Doubling down on Astros/Cubs.

[stingyrivers]

yeah i will be on cubs/astros.... dont go too crazy though bro, remember we will win more of these than we lose

[stingyrivers]

numbers look good in hou/chi

sampson 22 inn/7 runs

hill 52 inn/22 runs

[stingyrivers]

numbers contrast in sf/mil game

sanchez 8 inn/15 runs

villanueva 12 inn/3 runs


sanchez numbers are ridiculously bad and villanueva extremely good, might do my 2 bet hedge on this one (scoreless first/brewers lead after 1), essentially betting the giants dont score

[chinodeft26]

this loss will be okay in the end if detroit helps me hit my parlay...

but if nate robertson keeps serving them up like that i have no chance

[stingyrivers]

i do gotta say, these numbers are good indicators, between today and yesterday, everytime we have a pitcher by the numbers that is worse than a 2-1 ratio they give up a run, and when we have a pitcher with less than a 2-1 historically, they ended up pitching scoreless first

[stingyrivers]

yeah i got a detroit/milwaukee parlay too, but detroit has not been impressive at all lately, if anything very profitable fade material

[stingyrivers]

my 2 pm bets:

hou/chi scoreless first

sf/mil scoreless first

(hedge) mil leading after first

[chinodeft26]

i'm also on the hou/chi bet staying away from the sf/mil tho

[stingyrivers]

really hopin stros/cubs is scoreless, i went against my advice and went too big on it, the numbers were to good lookin not too.... hope i am not kicking myself in 15 minutes

[turnip]

What was the line for a scoreless 1st in the Milwaukee game?

[stingyrivers]

it was -105 i pushed with brewers scoring

[turnip]

thanks, was just wondering

[chinodeft26]

at least we picked up a w on the hou/cubs game

[stingyrivers]

congrats guys a sweat free first in wrigley....

i think we are learning something here, when a pitcher's career numbers are good like hill and sampson, it is a good bet... when they are real bad like contreras and sanchez, they likely will give up a run, the same held true yesterday.... career numbers have been a great indicator so far

[stingyrivers]

numbers for the 4 pm game dont seem too good....

owings 27 inn/12 runs (not too bad)

Redman 195 inn/105 runs (not too good)

Redman 07 season 8 inn/13 runs (even worse)

if anything might do my 2 bet hedge:

scoreless first at +105

Dbacks leading after the first at -105

[CashMoney]

I'm looking hard on the Mets Braves game tonight. I'm cool with Hudson just note too sure about Maine. Going to do some research and see what happens.

I think we're on the right track. Even though I put some $$$ on the ChiSox/Tigers numbers were pointing towards staying away. Numbers again looked bad on SF/MIL and it lost. Numbers looked great on Hou/Chi and it hits.

[stingyrivers]

yup, i think we are working out a strategy that could have a 60-70% success rate which is astoundingly good.... big batch of 7 pm games i am gonna start filtering the numbers, report back soon....

as i said, dbacks-rockies looks dicey as redman's numbers are pretty bad.... good one to stay away from, i might play it and hedge with dbacks leading after first as owings numbers are pretty decent

[stingyrivers]

ok here are the numbers for the 7 pm starts, a couple look really good, and not one's you would expect:


Pitt/Fla

Morris 271 inn/186 runs 07 season 32/21

Olsen 68/36 07 season 33/24

--- this one dont look too good


Phi/Cinn

Kendrick 20 inn/7 runs (no HRs given up in 1st's)

Fogg 179/105 07 season 29/21

----- this one is a possibility with a hedge on Philly lead


Sea/Balt

Washburn 246/99 07 season 32/13

Traschel 409/196 07 season 29/10

---- this one seems like a solid bet


TB/NYY

Sonnanstine 22/11

Kennedy 3/1

---- although the sample size on these guys is small, seems like a decent bet


Bos/Tor

Wakefield 371/183 07 season 31/8

Marcum 39/21

----- this one seems like a crap shoot



NYM/Atl

Maine 56/30 07 season 32/11

Hudson 281/139 07 season 34/19 season opener on sunday night gave up a 2 run first to the nats

----- a lot of people been chiming in on this one, but the numbers really don't indicate it is all that solid for a scoreless first


i am leaning toward cincy/philly scoreless first with a hedge on philly scoring, and

Sea/balt scoreless straight up....


what do you guys think??

[CashMoney]

yup, i think we are working out a strategy that could have a 60-70% success rate which is astoundingly good.... big batch of 7 pm games i am gonna start filtering the numbers, report back soon....

as i said, dbacks-rockies looks dicey as redman's numbers are pretty bad.... good one to stay away from, i might play it and hedge with dbacks leading after first as owings numbers are pretty decent

The hedging strategy seems to be OK. The only thing that worries me is a 1-1 at the end of the 1st. There's a potential to lose both bets.

[stingyrivers]

yeah... you could lose both bets if it is 1-0 after the first.... if it is 1-1 after the first you only lose the scoreless first bet, the other pushes....

so yeah, you are betting that one team will not score essentially, and i am only doing it where the numbers are strongly behind the pitcher against that team....

like if i know one side is very unlikely to score, but not sure about the other, i will bet scoreless and bet the team i am unsure about to be leading, the only way i lose money is if the team i think is very unlikely to score, like the giants today, actually scores against the pitcher with great numbers... that's the only way you lose both bets....

ideally i would like to just bet straight up scoreless firsts, but as we seen with contreras, can't always do that

[CashMoney]

1st Innings Pitched vs Runs given up is super deceptive. Looking at John Maine you'll see he has given up 30 Runs in 56 1st Innings pitched. I looked up his 2007 Box Score and found out that in 32 Games he had given up a 1st inning run in only 5 games. 84% of the time last year he pitched a scoreless 1st blanking the Braves in both starts last year.

Hudson has given up 139 runs in 281 1st innings pitched. However, last year in 33 Games he pitched a scoreless 1st inning 24 times. 73% of the time last year he pitched a scoreless 1st.

Hudson has me a bit worried though as he started 4 games against the Mets and gave up a 1st inning run twice. I'm going to check out hitters 1-6 numbers for the Mets against Hudson.

[EaglesPhan36]

I've never been a hedger myself. I go all in on one side and live with the results. Zona/Colorado game presents a clash, runs scored in 1st in all 3 D-backs games, none in all 3 Rox games. Bad pitching match-up and Colorado is due for some runs. Like the price +110 for no score, but this looks real iffy.

[stingyrivers]

yeah i am hoping for scoreless 1st in cold colorado, as i just went straight up on that....

i agree that career ratio is deceptive, but the raw numbers have been a pretty good indicator in the past two day so far.... could be coincidence probably better to go with actual percentage of firsts in the boxscores like you said

[CashMoney]

OK....Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Beltran, Delagdo.... all have good numbers against Hudson. Hedging this one to be on the safe side.

[stingyrivers]

i really like the kid going for philly, i doubt cincy scores in the first, only question is do the phils get the best of fogg, that is possible

[stingyrivers]

man the so called 'good teams' this year suck, i am staying away from parlays for a while.... all my scoreless first profits are paying for losing parlays with Detroit and the Cubs

[EaglesPhan36]

WTF, I'm in at +110 on the NO SCORE in the 1st in Colorado. 1-1 today on these so far as I skipped the SF-MIL game. Let's go pitching! If Redman can find a way to get through the top half ... I'll like our chances, but that's a large IF!

[EaglesPhan36]

Redman is going to F this up real quick.

[stingyrivers]

well.... the numbers hold up again.... redman bad career numbers.... gives up first inning runs

[stingyrivers]

i swear when i start seeing bad career numbers i am gonna start taking yes on score in the first

[BigOrangeTitans]

Stingy, heres my thoughts on this. I agree with the numbers you are using, but you want to stay away from games like det/chi today. Pitchers are pretty good, but the Over has hit in 6 of the last 6 games these guys pitched. With the over averaging 9(1 run per IP), its not a safe bet.

Another thing, is day games. Pitchers are much more successful in 1st innings in night games. They have had all day for their arm to get lose, and are better prepared for the 1st inning(which is why some guys have great stats for 1st IP, is that they played many more night games than day games.)

Just my two cents, I pitched in college, so know a bit about pitching arms.