1. 03-31-08 12:30 AM #1
    OLGC_Slayer
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    Opening Day General Discussion

    Hoping to start a daily thread here where we can discuss stats, edges, etc.

    Right off the bat I see some great value in the Jays at +142 with Halladay, who usually gets off to a strong spring and usually pitches well against the Yanks. Almost seems to good to be true, but for the first month I am mostly playing pitcher trends until enough numbers are in to start my system plays.
    Also liking the Texas Rangers at +174 as a road dog. Hoping Bedard is jittery in his first start and the Rangers steal this one. Bedard has dominated the Rangers in the past but at that line on opening day I'm going to bite. Millwood is solid if unspectacular against the Mariners who I feel are somewhat overvalued this year.
    Just hoping, like every year, to keep my chin above water in April-June and really start rolling from June on. I am a slow starter.
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  2. 03-31-08 12:47 AM #2
    OLGC_Slayer
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    Pretty good website right here for new bettors to look over. Some nice systems here, a couple of which I may try this year......

    http://www.easybaseballbetting.com/index.html
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  3. 03-31-08 01:16 AM #3
    OLGC_Slayer
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    Well. This has been a ROUSING success. hahaha.
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  4. 03-31-08 01:53 AM #4
    KaidenDager
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    Try not posting the discussion thread @ 2 am :P I'm sure once things get underway the threads will be booming again.

    Just waiting for my overnight lines from Intertops, then I can sleep through my action.

    I'm glancing over the website you recommended as I am quite new to betting and VERY new to bases.
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  5. 03-31-08 03:40 AM #5
    imgv94
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    Quote Originally Posted by OLGC_Slayer View Post
    Well. This has been a ROUSING success. hahaha.
    I notice a lot of threads not getting any action lately. This thread is good bud.
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  6. 03-31-08 03:49 AM #6
    trojan87
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    Quote Originally Posted by OLGC_Slayer View Post
    Pretty good website right here for new bettors to look over. Some nice systems here, a couple of which I may try this year......

    http://www.easybaseballbetting.com/index.html
    nice site
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  7. 03-31-08 04:17 AM #7
    beaneaters
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    Cool website OLGC, I'll definitely be looking at it more closely.
    You saw my future bets, but don't have a lot to add for opening day. I'm debating playos on Pittsburgh, as they are in Atlanta, with the Braves having travelled over night from Washington. Snell at +135 ain't bad. Also, as much as I love Peavy, Oswalt and the Astros paying +145 ain't bad either.
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  8. 03-31-08 10:53 AM #8
    BigOrangeTitans
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    i like the royals +1.5 today.

    Also like toronto ML +139. Holliday owns the yanks.
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  9. 03-31-08 11:22 AM #9
    OLGC_Slayer
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    Wow, the line on Pinnacle just moved up to +152 on Toronto. Should have waited. Yanks are tough at home on opening day but I think the value here is worth the risk.
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  10. 03-31-08 11:33 AM #10
    OLGC_Slayer
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    I smell some cancellations today. Weather reports are kinda grim.
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  11. 03-31-08 11:54 AM #11
    OLGC_Slayer
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    All Time Percentage of Opening Day Wins

    ALhttp://www.baseball-almanac.com/open...ay_games.shtml

    NLhttp://www.baseball-almanac.com/open...ay_games.shtml
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  12. 03-31-08 12:06 PM #12
    OLGC_Slayer
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    This thread is going over like a fart in a church. Oh well.
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  13. 03-31-08 12:09 PM #13
    Louisvillekid1
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    I think this will be a nice thread daily,

    Good idea,

    Ill copy my post about the Phillies game in here just to add some info.
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  14. 03-31-08 12:10 PM #14
    Louisvillekid1
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    Just wanted to talk a little more about the Phillies home opener today.

    The Phills are my fav team and I follow them closer then anyother ball club. I just drove by the stadium and its a rainy/foggy day so far. Brett Myers is going to take the mound against the Nationals today and I really look forward to a strong outing. Myers is a terrific pitcher IMO and I look for him to have a career year. I think he will be one of the best in the NL this year. He is back in the starting rotation after moving to closer last year only because he was their only option really.

    The Nationals really struggled last night not getting a base runner in something like 24 straight AB's. THey pulled out an emotional walk off win to welcome their new park, but I think that high is going to be short lived. They had to travel to Philly w/ no rest and it should show today.

    The Phills bullpen is always an area of concern but I think Myers goes 7 strong today. Look for a big effort in the Phillies home opener and expect the Nationals to struggle to score runs.

    If the weather stays like this as forcasted I really like the under today as well. The line is increased because of the hitter friendly park and the firepower the Phillies have.

    Might even wanna take a look at the Phills & Under 1st 5 as well. I just don't want to much action on the 1st day.

    Score Prediction: Phillies 5 - Nationals 2
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  15. 03-31-08 12:12 PM #15
    mofome
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    i like livan to get rocked today

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  16. 03-31-08 12:12 PM #16
    Louisvillekid1
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    Im on the tigers today, People say its not a good idea to play -200 fav and up but this situation I feel is turning down free money. Verlander is 6-0 all time against KC and I made the play for obv other mismatches.

    Also took a shot on the Blue Jays, really just for two reasons. Value against the Yanks and Mainly Roy Halladay.
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  17. 03-31-08 12:13 PM #17
    OLGC_Slayer
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    In April 2007 there were 152 overs, 157 unders and 21 pushes.
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  18. 03-31-08 12:14 PM #18
    OLGC_Slayer
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    I agree LK1 that Washington may be a tired, adrenaline drained club today. Your analysis is spot on. I may make a play on Philly and the under, since I left myself 2 units.
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  19. 03-31-08 12:16 PM #19
    Louisvillekid1
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    I also like the cardinals at the short price in their home opener.

    Rare oppurtunity to get Brandon Webb + Money.

    I think Ian Snell could have a nice outing today and get the win today against ATL after they played last night.

    Didn't play these because I just don't wanna play the hole card on opening day, but just some leans.

    GL
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  20. 03-31-08 12:16 PM #20
    buztah
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    In 2007 I had 26 bad beats, 3 phucking aweful beats and one KOKSUCKING MOTHERPHUCKING DEVASTATION BEAT! Phuck you, D-Rays bullpen! Phuck you!
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  21. 03-31-08 12:17 PM #21
    OLGC_Slayer
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    Buzzy, I was 3-79 with 3 pushes last April. I lost 255 units.
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  22. 03-31-08 12:18 PM #22
    Louisvillekid1
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    Quote Originally Posted by mofome View Post
    i like livan to get rocked today

    I don't have much faith in Weaver right now, but I agree.
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  23. 03-31-08 12:24 PM #23
    Dashwood Clipper
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    Anyone have any thoughts on some good sleepers out of the gates. I like the Jays to be in the AL East hunt throughout the season, and I like the Reds to not win their division, but be in the mix for a wild card.
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  24. 03-31-08 12:27 PM #24
    Louisvillekid1
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    I think the Dodgers could make a run for a playoff spot
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  25. 03-31-08 12:31 PM #25
    BigOrangeTitans
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    Dodgers win the west IMO.
    Torre is a top notch manager that guys want to play for. He's the motor that talent needed to run.
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  26. 03-31-08 12:31 PM #26
    OLGC_Slayer
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    If I had to pick one "sleeper" for each division....sleeper being a non repeat and non wildcard team....

    AL East: Toronto
    AL Central: Chicago
    AL West: Seattle
    NL East: Atlanta
    NL Central: Cincinnati
    NL West: Arizona

    Dont know if these qualify as sleepers or not.
    I think the most disappointing teams this year will be the Yankees and Dodgers.
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  27. 03-31-08 12:31 PM #27
    mofome
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    I don't have much faith in Weaver right now, but I agree.

    maybe overs then.


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  28. 03-31-08 12:31 PM #28
    BigOrangeTitans
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    AL Central: Chicago
    AL West: Seattle
    NL East: Atlanta

    These three arent really sleepers
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  29. 03-31-08 12:35 PM #29
    Louisvillekid1
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    Everybody is talking ATLANTA ATLANTA ATLANTA. . .

    I just don't see how they have any chance the METS and Phills are just better.

    They got these old veteran starters that just don't scare me.

    And that lineup is intimadating either
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  30. 03-31-08 12:37 PM #30
    Dashwood Clipper
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    AL East: Blue Jays
    AL Central:Tigers
    AL West: Mariners
    AL Wild Card: Indians
    NL East: Phillies
    NL Central: Brewers
    NL West:Padres
    NL Wild Card: Reds
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  31. 03-31-08 12:38 PM #31
    OLGC_Slayer
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigOrangeTitans View Post
    AL Central: Chicago
    AL West: Seattle
    NL East: Atlanta

    These three arent really sleepers
    Seattle and Atlanta arguably, but Chicago, after last season, you're not considering a "sleeper" in the AL Central with Cleveland and Detroit?
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  32. 03-31-08 12:49 PM #32
    BigOrangeTitans
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    Quote Originally Posted by OLGC_Slayer View Post
    Seattle and Atlanta arguably, but Chicago, after last season, you're not considering a "sleeper" in the AL Central with Cleveland and Detroit?
    Hah, was thinkin NL and the cubs...
    White sux on the other hand, def a sleeper
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  33. 03-31-08 12:50 PM #33
    YoungMoney23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Everybody is talking ATLANTA ATLANTA ATLANTA. . .

    I just don't see how they have any chance the METS and Phills are just better.

    They got these old veteran starters that just don't scare me.

    And that lineup is intimadating either
    yes
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  34. 03-31-08 12:52 PM #34
    mocash
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    Quote Originally Posted by OLGC_Slayer View Post
    Seattle and Atlanta arguably, but Chicago, after last season, you're not considering a "sleeper" in the AL Central with Cleveland and Detroit?
    even my grandmother is picking Detroit Cleveland 1 and 2 chi town big sleeper personally don't think there going to even come close to either
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  35. 03-31-08 12:52 PM #35
    OLGC_Slayer
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    Nice to see some other Phillies fans here. Phuck the Mets.
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