 SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks |
Best Sportsbooks List
|
|
| |||||
| #1 FanDuel | SBR rating 4.8/5 | Review | #6 BetRivers | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review | #2 Caesars | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #7 Fanatics | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review |
| #3 DraftKings | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #8 Betway | SBR rating 3.8/5 | Review | ||
| #4 BetMGM | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #9 Borgata | SBR rating 3.5/5 | Review | ||
| #5 bet365 | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #10 ClutchBet | SBR rating 2.9/5 | Review | ||
Baseball Trends
I'm going to start a trend thread and put stuff in here you guys may deem as useful...
First thing I looked at is the Red Sox at home....very good home team...so when they lose the first game of a home series they bounce back strong in the second game...the following goes back 5 years...if you bet the second game of a home series after they lose the first one this has hit 72% of the time.
2007 9-1
2006 2-5
2005 6-2
2004 8-1
2003 6-3
31-12 going back 5 years
Pete, you need to add the odds to see the P&L
sample size is insignificant; trends in baseball mean absolutely nothingOriginally Posted by WestsidePete
Then I guess this thread isn't for you then...
you make a good point.
you've never found trends helpful?? Not saying to play trends only just looking for angles or find something worth playing
I haven't actually done that much betting yet. I'm finishing up my senior year in college right now and my senior essay is looking at inefficiencies in the betting market (and I'm actually moving out to Las Vegas in a few months to do quant work for a sports consulting firm that makes the lines). I haven't found streaks to have any predictive value (controlling for baseline performance level) no matter how I dissected them.
Thanks for the input...GL on the Vegas move....
Thanks. I'm a little curious how you look at trends--are you looking at more of a team getting hot type thing or situational factors (i.e. first game of a homestand, coming off a loss)
situational factors...I've never bet blindly on trends before but am interested in finding a few that may be worth looking at...also really want to look at the Yankees...they win 90 plus games yet if you bet the ml on them every game you end up down overall...I'm going to study how their 4th and 5th starters perform over a period of a few years to see how the teams records hold up...I would think as good as they are...those 2 starters and the team would't be winning as much as the 1-3 starters....yet they get heavy chalk especially in home games...
teams getting hot during the year will be in year trends I'll look at...last 10 games and see who's hot at the plate,starting pitchers and bullpens broken down seperately over a ten game stretch...with each starter going around twice...
I disagree with this. You need to watch games instead of your calculator. Ever seen the body language in an MLB team that has lost 4-6 games in a row? They feel defeated, then they play defeated. The bullpen collaspes, hitters hit slumps, the team loses focus. It happened to the Rockies last year in mid-summer. Then when they got hot, they felt hot, then they played hot. Streaks affect game performance.
Last edited by St. Andrew; 03-28-08 at 10:50 PM.
I'm not claiming that streaks don't effect game performance (although they very rarely do)--I'm claiming that they are priced efficiently. When we're talking about individual players though, that's another story--there are mispricings there, most of which come from the line overvaluing recent performance.
Also realize that baseball is essentially an individual sports. There are no real synergistic teamwork effects. As the adage goes, a winning streak is only as good as tomorrow's starting pitcher
Last edited by Rufus; 03-29-08 at 02:59 AM.
...and your bullpen.
Getting back to trends, they are fine if you use them to support a play, but I would not make them the basis of a play.
And one more thing, although I admit I have not run the numbers yet, but I bet it would have been profitable to bet AGAINST the Yankees every time they were favored last season. In fact, let me look at it now.
OK, the results are surprising, If, in the 2007 regular season, you would have bet:
ON the Yankees every game: 94-68, -10.62 units
AGAINST Yankees every game: 68-94, +3.27 units
AGAINST Yankees at +100 or more: 54-85, -0.08 units
AGAINST Yankees at -110 or more: 10-5, +3.48 units
AGAINST Yankees from -101 to -109: 4-4, -0.13 units
The numbers are very insignificant, as betting against the Yankees would have picked up just 3.27 units over 162 games. What surprised me was that the best time to fade the Yankees was when they were underdogs (+3.48), although that was a small sampling of 15 games.
Reply With Quote
