1. #1
    EaglesPhan36
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    EP36'2 2008 Baseball Thread

    Whaddup fellas. Can't believe baseball season is here already! Gonna keep track of my picks in one thread. I've decided to go with a different approach in '08. I am going to bet almost exclusively on series and not individual games. I am going to pick two series to start the week and two or three for the weekends. I'll also include in the series breakdowns a value pick where I'll go dog hunting for one individual game per series. However with the season opening series being just two games, we go with a play on "Opening Day" overseas. Feedback, bashing, constructive baseball talk - all encouraged and welcomed. Let's reap some ca$h in '08!

    TUESDAY, MARCH 25: Red Sox-A's UNDER 9.5 [1 UNIT]

    Always a crap shoot to try and cap the season opener as far as totals since you haven't seen a regular season lineup or game for either team - but I believe the UNDER here is the best wager.

    Dice-K: 0-1, 2.57 ERA vs. OAK
    Joe Blanton: 2-1, 3.58 ERA vs. BOS


    Dice-K figures to be fired up in front of his native Japanese fans and should to be able to keep a weak Oakland lineup in check. Eric Chavez is out of the lineup to start the season, so that leaves a hole in the lineup with OAK still having some punch with Jack Cust, Travis Buck, Kurt Suzuki & Daric Barton. But Dice-K should be able to baffle the youngsters & make them pay for being impatient.

    Joe Blanton meanwhile gets his first opening day start which I predict will go one of two ways - gasoline or quality start. I don't see an in-between for Blanton here. He has good lifetime #s vs. BOS in limited opportunity, but was a very different pitcher on the road last season vs. home ... being much worse on the road. If Blanton can keep the BoSox in check over 5-7 innings, the A's bullpen has the ability to shut down Boston late I believe.

    Extra #s
    In 8 meetings last season, the total played lower than 9.5 in five games. In Blanton's three starts vs. BOS, the Red Sox have scored five runs & the games have all gone UNDER In their last four opening days, the A's have only scored 7 runs - with all of those coming in two games. They've been shut out twice.

  2. #2
    OLGC_Slayer
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    Look forward to reading your picks and to winning some cash this baseball season EP. Good luck this year.

  3. #3
    Louisvillekid1
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    You convinced me.

  4. #4
    EaglesPhan36
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    Nothing like a good raping from the bullpen to start a season!

    Record ATS: 0-1 [-1.15 Units]

  5. #5
    OLGC_Slayer
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    Huston Street hasnt been the same the season or two.

  6. #6
    EaglesPhan36
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    Yeah. These are the games that hurt, when you cap the starters right and the score is right where it needs to be & then blammo = bullpen gasoline job. Oh well, still feel good about the pick because it was right on the money for 9 innings. Can't wait to get things rolling next week!

  7. #7
    OLGC_Slayer
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    Tons more games left bro. Heck I am usually down the first month about 10 units.
    Are you playing Wednesday games? I may make a small play.

  8. #8
    EaglesPhan36
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    Not sure about Wednesday. Probably no "official" play, but ... Harden does have some harsh #s vs. Boston, so the value probably lies in taking BOS for the low price [-115]. Manny + Big Papi have murdered Harden in limited ABs, 2 HRs each in just 4 ABs. Ortiz is 4 for 4 off him. Also think this one might go over because I don't know that Lester is going to do much better than Dice-K in the walk department and that's how OAK scratched out some of their runs.

  9. #9
    OLGC_Slayer
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    I am liking the Boston and over. So much so I may start my official year and make a play on both.

  10. #10
    Willie Bee
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    Whaddup fellas. Can't believe baseball season is here already!
    Howdy EP, and yeah, I'm ready for some hardball action. Sure sorry about your under getting spoiled at the end of today's game. But what do you expect with Huston Street? I mean if there's one thing we've learned this past offseason it's that former Texas Longhorn hurlers just can't be trusted

  11. #11
    EaglesPhan36
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    LoL ... good point Willie!

  12. #12
    EaglesPhan36
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    MONDAY, MARCH 31st: METS/MARLINS OVER 8 [-105]

    Alot will be made of Santana's 1st start for NY in this one, but the real man to watch is FLA's Mark Hendrickson. This lefty is one mediocre SOB. He is 1-0 with a 4.86 ERA at Dolphins Stadium in his traveller's career. Hendrickson's big issue has always been walks and that's something the Mets will pound if he continues that form. I'm expecting a fairly solid performance from the Mets offense in this one and think anything less than 5 runs will be a failure on Opening Day. Santana was sharp in the Spring with a 3.15 ERA, so you can expect him to limit FLA to 2 runs or less. While these are different teams in '08, last year's series saw the OVER hit in 8 of the last 12 with 2 pushes. The last 9 meetings all hitting over 9 runs. Look for the Mets O to flex its muscle and pound out 6+ runs. Santana won't disappoint, but I see the worst case scenario being a push at 8 and with some lax play on Opening Day, look for a push at worst and hopefully 9 to cash the over.

    W: Mets win 7-2
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 03-31-08 at 07:02 PM. Reason: Added Result

  13. #13
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record ATS 1-1 [-0.15 units]

    MONDAY MARCH 31st: Houston +134 @ San Diego

    Pitcher's delight tonight at PETCO with Roy Oswalt battling Jake Peavy. Some really intriguing #s for both pitchers vs. the opposition.

    The Astros have won 5 of the last 6 starts made by Roy Oswalt vs. San Diego. That includes 3 straight in SD. Roy is 7-1 lifetime with a 2.27 ERA vs. SD.

    Peavy is 6-4 with a 2.23 ERA vs. HOU in his career, averaging more than one K per inning. However, in the last four seasons, the Pads have split his two starts with HOU per year. They've lost 3 of his last 4 home starts vs. HOU.


    This looks like a good value play for Houston. I think Roy O. will be more comfortable this season in his role as ace, now knowing what is expected of him as the veteran leader without any Pettittes, Clemenses or Woody Williamses to be counted on as the staff leader. No doubt that Peavy will keep the Astros revamped lineup down some, but this is an excellent test for this Astros ballclub and in an evenly matched pitching game - they have the bigger guns on offense to pull off an Opening Day win. If the 'Stros D doesn't let Roy down that is.

    L: Pads win 4-0
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 04-01-08 at 09:42 AM. Reason: Added Result

  14. #14
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record ATS 1-2 [-1.15 units]

    TUESDAY APRIL 1: Texas/Seattle OVER 8.5 [-120]
    To say Vicente Padilla is trash is no surprise. He's probably one of the most inefficient pitchers in the league, yet he does have the stuff to be a solid pitcher as he has shown once in a while. But, I'll bank against that happening today. Look no further than last year's road starts for Padilla to find an edge tonight. In his 12 roadies, 9 of those games had double digit totals. He got pounded in many an outing and when he did pitch well, his offense supported him. He got creamed twice at Safeco last year, giving up 16 runs in 9 innings of work. The totals in those two games were 11 and 14. As for Felix Hernandez, he pitched well vs. TEX last season. Winning two starts with the identical scores of 4-2. 8 of his 17 home starts last season beat tonight's #. Like yesterday's pick with Johan Santana starting, the honus on the over falls on Padilla because I expect Felix to yield no more than 2-3 runs at the most.

    W: Texas 5-4
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 04-02-08 at 11:09 AM. Reason: Added Result

  15. #15
    MonkeyF0cker
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    I agree, EP. Why not play the Seattle RL along with me? You make a great case for it...

  16. #16
    EaglesPhan36
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    Perhaps. Perhaps. Perhaps.

  17. #17
    EaglesPhan36
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    2 Unit Bet
    TUESDAY APRIL 1: Dodgers OVER 3.5 runs [-125]
    In 10 of Derek Lowe's 15 home starts last season, his teammates provides him with more than 4 runs of support. In 10 of 18 road starts, they also achieved that mark. So LA backed Lowe with 4 runs of support or more in 20 of 33 starts in 2007. In 3 starts vs. SF, LA scored 8, 3 & 4 runs in Lowe's starts. SF's Matt Cain pitched twice vs. LA. He only yielded 2 earned runs in each start. LA did pounce on the SF bullpen for 7 additional runs in one of those starts. In Cain's road starts in '07, 4 runs or more were scored in 10 of 15 starts. A few of the Dodgers also have nice career #s vs. Cain. The Dodgers have also scored at least 4 vs. SF in 13 of the last 19 meetings.

    Ethier 6 for 11
    Furcal 5 for 12
    Kent 4 for 8with 2 HRs
    Martin 4 for 11
    A.Jones 2 for 5

    All in all, I think LA should get at least 2 off Cain and then hit the bullpen for the rest to get at least 4.

    L: Dodgers scored 3
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 04-02-08 at 11:09 AM. Reason: Added Result

  18. #18
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record ATS: 2-3 [-2.65 units]

    TUESDAY APRIL 2: Royals OVER 4 Runs [-115]
    2 unit bet
    While Kenny Rogers does have good lifetime #s vs. KC, none of that has mattered in the past two seasons. Check out Roger's #s vs. KC in his last 7 starts.

    '07
    KC: 7-4 winners, 6 IP, 5 runs, 3 ER
    KC: 10-2 winners, 6.1 IP, 6 runs, 5 ER

    '06
    KC: 10-8 winners, 3 IP, 2 earned runs
    DET: 15-4 winners, 8 IP, 1 earned run
    DET: 10-9 winners, 4 IP, 5 earned runs
    DET: 8-5 winners, 6.1 IP, 5 earned runs
    DET: 3-1 winners, 6 IP, 1 earned run

    Only once did KC fail to get at least 4 runs. The Royals have now scored at least 4 runs vs. DET in 10 of the last 12 meetings. Couple that with KC getting 4 off Verlander in the opener and I see this is a solid option. Weather shouldn't play too large a factor as it will be cold, but sunny today in Detroit.

    P: Royals score 4
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 04-02-08 at 04:41 PM.

  19. #19
    OLGC_Slayer
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    Good luck EP.

  20. #20
    EaglesPhan36
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    Gracias! Should also mention that the meat of KC's order [2-6] all has pretty solid #s vs. Rogers.

  21. #21
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record ATS: 2-3-1 [-2.65 units]

    TUESDAY APRIL 2: Houston/SD OVER 7.5 [-115]

    The runs have been few in this series, but the men left on base have been plenty. Tonight, I think they begin to be driven in. Simply, Wandy Rodriguez was road kill on the road last season and for his career. Wandy is 11-20 with a 5.96 ERA in 43 career appearances away from Minute Maid Park.
    He's also 1-2 against SD with a whopping 8.49 ERA, made so small by a brilliant home pitching performance against SD last season. 8 IP, 1 earnie. In his 16 road starts in 07, the totals hit above tonight's posted # 13 times. Greg Maddux meanwhile has been solid against the Astros, but some of the Houston batters have had success against him. Berkman is hitting is .324 against Maddux with 3 HRs. Carlos Lee has 3 HRs and 7 RBI off him in 31 career ABs. I expect one of these starters to get touched up with the hitters finally releasing their frustration from the 1st two games which have seen 7 runs total.

    W: Astros win 9-6
    Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 04-03-08 at 09:21 AM. Reason: Added Result

  22. #22
    EaglesPhan36
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    Record ATS 3-3-1 [-1.65 units]

    THURSDAY APRIL 3: Houston/SD OVER 8.5 [-105]

    Same reasoning really as yesterday. Despite the 15 runs last night, the Pads still left 17 men on base and the Stros, 10. Wolf has had control issues with SD this spring and Shawn Chacon is always hit or miss. The offenses finally found their groove with HRs and driving in RISP. I think it continues. I believe one of the starters has a rough time again today and that should be enough with some bullpen meltdown to find a way to 9 or more runs today.

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