[Willie Bee]

2008 Mariners: Anxious in Seattle

With what should be one of the best rotations in the major leagues, a solid closer and Ichiro Suzuki fueling the offense, the Seattle Mariners are AL playoff contenders in 2008.

As the old saying goes, there are three types of untruths in the world: Lies, damned lies and statistics. And that means that a lot of stat geeks have been spreading lies this winter about the Mariners, including my colleague Chance Harper.

Ok, ok, don’t get excited. I’m not calling Chance a liar. He just happens to place more value on the Pythagorean column than I do, and he’s picking Seattle to slide back in the W-L columns this year whereas I believe the M’s will do as well if not better than 2007.

In his column earlier this month about good bets for Over and Under win totals, Harper listed the Mariners as pick for a solid Under play based on Pythagorean, a formula derived from calculations using runs scored and runs allowed. Seattle finished 14 games over .500 a year ago despite being outscored 813 to 794. But while it isn’t normal for a team to be outscored and win more than they lose, you really have to look inside all of the stats.

In 2007, the Mariners won a total of 39 games by one or two runs, netting a +51 in runs in those contests. They also lost 18 times by more than five runs, with 10 of those losses defeats of nine runs or more, leaving them at a negative-146 in run differential in those games. Just looking at those 57 games – The one and two run wins and the blowout losses – Seattle was in the hole about 100 runs to Pythagorean and termed 'lucky' to be 39-18 in the W-L columns if you just go by the formula.

Pythagorean is a good tool, but that's all it is, one tool. It evenly spreads out runs scored and allowed over a 162-game season, and as we know, runs aren't always spread out nice and level. Ignoring reality and banking on the theoretical can be a losing proposition.

What helped John McLaren’s bunch on the field to overcome those stats a year ago was a solid bullpen. And what will help them even more this year is not having either Horacio Ramirez or Jeff Weaver in the rotation, with GM Bill Bavasi making a deal for Eric Bedard from Baltimore this winter. With two of the biggest contributors to Seattle’s Pythagorean numbers last year gone – Weaver and Ramirez made 47 starts between them and posted a 6.58 ERA – last year’s Pythagorean stat needs to be thrown out with the bath water when looking forward to 2008.

PITCHING
Mel Stottlemyre is back mentoring young arms after being away from baseball for a couple of season, partly due to health reasons and partly because his former boss was named Steinbrenner who never met a man that couldn’t be fired. His crop of pitchers in Seattle should be an interesting bunch for him to work with.

The rotation is set and it should be among the elite rotations in the league this year. In addition to bringing Bedard in, Bavasi also inked Carlos Silva this winter to add to the three returning arms from last year – Felix Hernandez, Miguel Batista and lefty Jarrod Washburn.

Neither Bedard nor Silva has been much of a mystery to hitters in spring action while the three returning arms have been cooking along right at the same pace they ran through ’07. Silva would concern me a little if I’m McLaren or Stottlemyre. But Bedard’s spring struggles don’t bother me too much, and I believe King Felix will have a super season for the Mariners.

For those that might not have heard yet, J.J. Putz is a pretty good pitcher. The right-hander out of Michigan tore the AL up last season, posting a 1.38 ERA, 40 saves and an amazing 0.69 WHIP in his 71+ innings of work.

But if there’s one question mark or weakness for this club entering ’08, it might be the arms that will bridge the gap between the starters and Putz. Mark Lowe and Sean Green, plus southpaws Ryan Rowland-Smith and Eric O’Flaherty, might be the best Seattle can do for seventh and eighth inning coming out of Spring Training. And it looks like knuckleballing former Volunteer R.A. Dickey and Korean Cha Seung Baek will have some of the long and middle relief chores. The club might also choose to just keep Dickey, and you can bet Baek won’t clear waivers after his solid spring.

The Mariners have a few veterans still working their way back from injuries, including left-hander Arthur Rhodes and Chris Reitsma, so the bullpen still has some shaking out to do before it’s settled.

OFFENSE/DEFENSE
While Safeco Field does slightly favor pitching, it’s not exactly the haven for arms or death knell for hitters as say a Petco in San Diego or whatever the heck they’re calling the old Oakland Coliseum these days. The Mariners were a middling team offensively in 2007, finishing seventh in runs scored (4.90 per game) and in the middle of the pack in team OPS (.782). Seattle’s offense averaged 4.7 runs per contest at home and almost 5.1 on the road.

But while the M’s were busy adding to the starting staff this offseason, one of their bigger bats exited stage left. It’s going to be McLaren’s and hitting coach Jeff Pentland’s job to come up with replacement in the lineup for Jose Guillen, now in Kansas City following a .290, 23-HR, 99-RBI season.

Seattle hopes they have that replacement in Brad Wilkerson, who inked a one year, incentive-laden contract with the Mariners in the offseason and will be the starting right fielder. Wilkerson won’t hit .290 or better like Guillen did, but he will reach that 20-HR plateau.

The Great Ichiro is in center after another outstanding season in which he batted .351 and topped the 200-hit mark for a seventh straight season. And Raul Ibañez returns in left after a second consecutive 100-RBI campaign. Mike Morse has played his way into one of the OF reserve slots with a nice spring, leaving the last reserve spot between Jeremy Reed and Charlton Jimerson. Wladimir Balentien could eventually make it up this year if there’s a long-term injury to one of the starters, and this kid has some power.

The infield returns intact, which is both good news and bad news in some respects. The good news is the middle of the diamond where Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez are growing into their shortstop and second base jobs respectively. I’m expecting a much better year for Lopez.

More good news on the infield is the two corners, 1B Richie Sexson and 3B Adrian Beltre, have some pop in their lumber. The bad news is Sexson’s sorry .205 batting average last year and the fact he’s nursing a sore shoulder this spring. Neither Beltre nor Sexson have lived up to their big contracts inked before 2005, especially Sexson.

Reserves on the infield will be Greg Norton – who might be an offensive upgrade at this point for Sexson at 1B and can also play a little OF – Miguel Cairo and the very versatile Willie Bloomquist. Jose Vidro is expected to DH mostly, though if Sexson can’t play in the field Vidro could see some action at first.

Kenji Johjima will be behind the plate for another 130+ games with Jamie Burke his understudy. But look for Jeff Clement to maybe get the call at some point this season, possibly early on to take over as DH should Vidro struggle.

Key Player(s): No doubt, Bedard and Felix Hernandez have to live up to their hype at the front of the rotation. Putz will also have to snuff any ideas the opposition might have of a ninth inning rally, and the relief corps in front of him will have to do their jobs. But if either Beltre and/or Sexson don’t come to the party this year and show why they got the big money a few years back, then I’m going to be left holding a losing ticket for sure on the Mariners while Chance schools me on Pythagorean all winter long.

Futures: Speaking of futures tickets, I do have one on the Mariners to win the AL this year, picking it up back in January while in Sin City. And that was before the Bedard deal was official. Running the sims after the trade, Seattle’s numbers crunched into an 88-89 win season, maybe not enough to take the AL West from the Halos, but certainly enough to have them in the AL Wild Card mix.

TheGreek thinks I’m optimistic, very optimistic about the Mariners with their win total at 86½ and the Over priced at +160. Maybe they’ve been reading too many Chance Harper pieces lately (wink). To win the AL West, 5Dimes is pricing the M’s at +240, and lists them at +1300 to win the AL (I got 14:1 in January) and +2500 to win the World Series.

[OLGC_Slayer]

My pick for most disappointing team of 2008. Sorry Willie Bee and Diogee. After Bedard there isn't much pitching, and the bullpen isn't exactly blowing me away.