We need to make a list of pitchers who start slow and give up 1st Inning runs. Francis would make the top of that list. He gave up a run in the 1st Inning in his last start or start before that one. I'mb blacklisting him.
this is a good idea.. i already use a lot of data in calculating no runs but if we can all work together on this somehow, we could make this into a very profitable season
Comment
TheAntFather
SBR MVP
03-14-11
3021
#357
Originally posted by stc9357
You exactly right I might start a database really soon it would help extensively.
That would be great. Add Liriano to that list. He just gave up 4 runs to the Rays??? Lmaoo. I think we're onto something here. Both Francis and Liriano are both lefties...most hitters in MLB are right handed.
We might need to blacklist all lefties unless they are having a Cy Young year it seems. Ah well...another lesson learned.
The 2 games we won today...both pitchers on both sides were right handed pitchers...in fact the eight pitchers in the 4 games we bet on today...6 pitchers were right handed...(Billingsley, Sanchez, Beckett, Guthrie, Tomlin, and Wade Davis)..The righties didn't surrender a run in the 1st Inning...Guess who did...The only 2 lefties in Jeff Francis and Liriano.
I think we're onto something Stc..Check into that..I'm tired of losing let's screw the books.
Comment
TheAntFather
SBR MVP
03-14-11
3021
#358
Also..I know hindsight is 20/20 but we should have picked NO Score 1st Inning OAK/LAA. Both right handed pitchers on top of their game. I'm not insisting picking all right handed pitching matchups. We'll leave the bums out. We can still be selective.
Comment
stc9357
Restricted User
04-18-10
2005
#359
Originally posted by TheAntFather
Also..I know hindsight is 20/20 but we should have picked NO Score 1st Inning OAK/LAA. Both right handed pitchers on top of their game. I'm not insisting picking all right handed pitching matchups. We'll leave the bums out. We can still be selective.
You might be on to something I'll start back from the start of the season and check on that.
Comment
TheAntFather
SBR MVP
03-14-11
3021
#360
Originally posted by stc9357
You might be on to something I'll start back from the start of the season and check on that.
Maybe if 2 lefties are starting against each other..we can throw a unit on YES Score 1st Inning. Especially if it's 2 crappy lefties. I'll be waiting for a Francis/Liriano matchup and put 10X on YES Score 1st Inning..lol
Ok..check this out Stc..there were only 2 games today that both lefties started on both sides...Hamels vs Joe Saunders = 3 runs scored 1st Inning all given up by a crappy lefty in Joe Saunders. The other game Jo-Jo Reyes vs Derek Holland = 0 runs scored 1st Inning. So that's 1-1 today on all lefty matchups.
The significance of this is that the final score of the Phillies D-Backs game was 8-4 = OVER for the game. The Rangers Blue Jays are in the Bottom 4th and the score = 6-5 so far = OVER for the game.
We might need to look back a week on this on all lefty matchups and check how many games went over 10.
Comment
TheAntFather
SBR MVP
03-14-11
3021
#361
April 26th
ONLY LHP vs LHP for the day. 1-0 for April 26th
Rockies vs Cubs: De La Rosa vs James Russell both Left Handed Pitchers = 3 Runs Scored 1st Inning....Final Score 4-3...(De La Rosa) gave up 2 Runs 1st Inning and (Russell) gave up 1 Run 1st Inning.
April 25th
ONLY LHP vs LHP for the day. 1-0 for April 25th
Nationals vs Pirates: John Lannan vs Paul Maholm both LHP = 2 Runs Scored 1st Inning...Final Score 4-2...Both 1st Inning Runs given up by (Maholm).
I'm just saying I'm trying to stay away from left handed Pitchers..especially in the 1st Inning No Score Bets. Unless they are truly dominant lefties I guess.
this is a good observation, ill try to incorporate this into my system tomorrow and will see how the results turn out
Comment
jnsbanman
SBR Wise Guy
01-08-11
526
#363
Here is a link to a spreadsheet I have been updating everyday... It consists of Scored at home, scored away, allowed at home and allowed away. It may help you.
Adding Texas To Score First (+100) (1x) (Got to fade Morrow on his second start back from the Dl until he gets back to his former ace status) (Most of the time with these plays I'll generally on play them when I get -110 or better).
Comment
paul051966
SBR High Roller
04-09-11
185
#376
Originally posted by TheAntFather
That would be great. Add Liriano to that list. He just gave up 4 runs to the Rays??? Lmaoo. I think we're onto something here. Both Francis and Liriano are both lefties...most hitters in MLB are right handed.
We might need to blacklist all lefties unless they are having a Cy Young year it seems. Ah well...another lesson learned.
The 2 games we won today...both pitchers on both sides were right handed pitchers...in fact the eight pitchers in the 4 games we bet on today...6 pitchers were right handed...(Billingsley, Sanchez, Beckett, Guthrie, Tomlin, and Wade Davis)..The righties didn't surrender a run in the 1st Inning...Guess who did...The only 2 lefties in Jeff Francis and Liriano.
I think we're onto something Stc..Check into that..I'm tired of losing let's screw the books.
Good info, much appreciated. We need to keep a spread sheet of righties and lefties and various combinations, any way to get an edge.
Comment
mac miller
SBR Wise Guy
01-27-11
749
#377
a spreadsheet of righties and lefties would be legit to have and would defiantly make it easier for my system when i calculate no runs
Comment
paul051966
SBR High Roller
04-09-11
185
#378
Originally posted by stc9357
Adding Texas To Score First (+100) (1x) (Got to fade Morrow on his second start back from the Dl until he gets back to his former ace status) (Most of the time with these plays I'll generally on play them when I get -110 or better).
Also tailing Tex to score first GL.
Comment
mac miller
SBR Wise Guy
01-27-11
749
#379
nice run so far today stc! lets keep this goin for the 7pm games
Comment
jnsbanman
SBR Wise Guy
01-08-11
526
#380
Originally posted by paul051966
Also tailing Tex to score first GL.
Was this a loss cuz toronto scored first or a win because texas scored in the first?
Comment
stc9357
Restricted User
04-18-10
2005
#381
No it was a lost its first team to score first, not a run in the first inning.
Comment
jnsbanman
SBR Wise Guy
01-08-11
526
#382
Ok Thanks
Comment
stc9357
Restricted User
04-18-10
2005
#383
My last games of the day:
(2-1) (On the day will update total record and units won later)
STL scores first (-170) (2x)
BOS/BAL no score 1st inn (-110) (2x) (The stats with Berguson doesn't tell the whole story)
Comment
mac miller
SBR Wise Guy
01-27-11
749
#384
BOS V. BAL NO RUN 1ST INNING (-110) .1X
have some yes run plays later on.... leaning yes run for hou v. stl, chi v. ari, and kan v cle.. all small plays though
Comment
stc9357
Restricted User
04-18-10
2005
#385
Yo mac is that a pic of you, is that a cig or a cigar?