Originally Posted by og4667
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08-30-10 12:21 PM #71
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08-30-10 12:25 PM #72
i look at it this way. for some reason everyone just has to bet halladay every time he starts, i guess because they feel all warm in cozy inside. if yur gay maybe you wanna blow job too. anyway halladay is continually -200 and higher and people keep pounding away, unreal. now you get him at -135 and it's time to bet against him and his team is now playing well on their west coast road trip which they usually do. i think people are looking way to deep into the magic tricks vegas is trying to play here. how you don't take the phillies here at this price vs an overrated dodger team i'll never understand. personally i am not getting involved but you may not see this price on roy hobbs the rest of the year. one stat that blew my mind; hobbs has 89 k's and 9 walks on the road. i cannot argue either so good luck on your bets!
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08-30-10 12:27 PM #73
Its the "Halladay -135...Stealing Money" trap!
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08-30-10 12:58 PM #74
My last comment because this is a good thread and I don't want to take more of your time with my pessimism.
This is my point:
Vegas is going to make very little on this game either way, they are not coming out with lines to trick you.
Don't overthink it, how much action do you really think comes in on a Monday night baseball game in August?
Tonight wagers on baseball will be a fraction of what the book takes in on any given NFL gameday, less than any NCAA football or basketball gameday, less than an NBA game day and even less than US Open Tennis will bring in today.
Phils are now -145 in my book, right about where the line should be, no trap of fishy line here IMO.
I am not betting on this game and if the Dodgers cash, I will be back to congratulate you and won't comment if the Phils win.
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08-30-10 01:02 PM #75
under
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08-30-10 01:06 PM #76
We need more of you/this in my threads. All your points are correct. But still Halladay at -140 seems too good to be true. Originally Posted by slimpickins
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08-30-10 01:46 PM #77
When I opened up my sports book to the baseball wagering page, one play in particular jumped out at me. The younger version of myself would have seen the line and put all my money down on one of the sides of that game. But the older version of me...the me who I am today...has built in (overtime) defense mechanisms to avoid the bad gambling habits of my young self. The line that basically poked me in the eye was: Philadelphia -135. I knew that Halladay was scheduled to pitch for Philadelphia, so a red flag went off in my head immediately. The younger me would have seen the -135, remembered Halladay was pitching,put down an entire bankroll, and brag to my friends that I had the lock of the decade. But the older version saw the red flags and stopped myself from pulling the trigger on the Phillies. I started to investigate this intangible red flag. Why was Doc Halladay, one of the all time great pitchers, and having another fantastic year, such a cheap favorite tonight. I can not recall him ever being so cheap. Furthermore, why were the suddenly smoking hot, defending National League Champions, the power house Phillies only a -135 favorite? And more and more questions popped into my old mind. Didn't the Phillies just sweep the National League West leading Padres IN San Diego? Aren't the Phillies 100% healthy again, now that Utley and Howard are back in their lineup? So why are they not -175 favorites with Doc Halladay on the mound? So I thought to myself; maybe they are only -135 favorites because they have to travel, or because they are facing another playoff contender, with a great pitcher on the hill. But lo and behold I did some further research and found out that they were facing the Dodgers. The Dodgers that played in Los Angeles. So there was no travel at all. San Diego to Los Angeles isnt a real commute. So I checked to see who was scheduled to start for the Dodgers. It had to be their superstar young phenom, Clayton Kershaw, right? Thats why Halladay and the Phillies were only -135 favorites. That HAD to be the reason, right? No. Kershaw was not starting this game. And it wasn't even Ted Lilly starting. It was Hiroki Kuroda, a solid, yet not spectacular pitcher. So it had to be something else that warranted the Phillies to only be -135 favorites. I bet the Dodgers are right there in the playoff hunt. They must be red-hot. Right? Had to be! But lo and behold, to my amazement they Dodgers are falling out of the race pretty fast and are on a 2 game losing streak. Furthermore, the Dodgers just traded away one of the best right handed bats of all time, in Manny Ramirez, thus basically showing the world that they were giving up on the 2010 season. So I was forced to ask for the final time, Why the hell are the Phillies only a -135 favorite? And the only answer the "older" me could come up with was: DODGERS +125.
Good luck to everyone tonight with all your action. May all your wagers be winners. Well, unless of course, you are wagering on the Phillies.
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08-30-10 01:52 PM #78
the great gazoo did that with fred flintstone too
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08-30-10 01:54 PM #79
Originally Posted by MadCapper
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08-30-10 02:09 PM #80
dude, you're in for such an "i told ya so, old man" from the "old you"(the younger one) its not even funny. and ill be back later to congratulate if im wrong....
*read the 2nd half of your meeting in your mind one mo' time-nice and slowly
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08-30-10 03:05 PM #81
Classic analysis sounds good to me Originally Posted by MadCapper
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08-30-10 03:11 PM #82
I would also add that little invincibility complex after a major series such as the last one the Phils had... Seems like ALOT of emotion went into that series, and despite hating to bet against a hot team (If 3 games makes you hot), this DOES have all the makings of a letdown... I'm with you...
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08-30-10 03:54 PM #83
Good point! Thanx!
Points Awarded:
BetterBizness gave MadCapper 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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08-30-10 04:13 PM #84
Case closed Originally Posted by MadCapper
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08-30-10 05:36 PM #85
Originally Posted by EXhoosier10
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08-30-10 08:07 PM #86
Phillies have maxed out at -145 now.
Lets go Dodgers!
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08-30-10 08:13 PM #87
Hey capper does the low RL on the phils concern you at all? Im on the dodgers as well for a half unit but i am starting to wonder.
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08-30-10 08:17 PM #88
Truth is I didnt even look at the RL. Was gonna look at LAD runline. Probably a nice play. But nothing concerns me. Phillies havent been hitting. Home dog is a solid play ere IMO. Originally Posted by lakerboy
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08-30-10 08:20 PM #89
Put a small bet on Dodgers, it should be an interesting match no matter the outcome ;O
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08-30-10 08:24 PM #90
Also on the DODGERS, good luck **
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08-30-10 08:25 PM #91
Thanx guys! 45 minutes away.
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08-30-10 09:30 PM #92
1-0 LAD thru 1. But a base running blunder by Ethier ruined a possible big inning.
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08-30-10 09:43 PM #93
2-0 LAD thru 2. Should be more. Dodgers had 1st and 3rd and no outs and only scored 1 run here.
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08-30-10 09:47 PM #94
Congrats Dodger backers, nice win.
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08-30-10 09:48 PM #95
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08-30-10 09:56 PM #96
Does this really work for you? Originally Posted by pokernut9999
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08-30-10 09:57 PM #97
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08-30-10 11:45 PM #98
Good call fading halladay again.
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08-30-10 11:54 PM #99
Nice call on the dodgers
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08-31-10 12:07 AM #100
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08-31-10 12:21 AM #101
Nice Call Cap.. I tailed for many of the reasons that Old Wise Capper liked... WP... I think I finally learned to understand a little more about Capping tonight.. Young BBiz Is HUmping all over that -135 and crying about it afterwards... I think it was my greatest play of the day actually in many respects... That and the Atl RL that I liked Tailing Paco with... Originally Posted by MadCapper
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08-31-10 04:41 AM #102
well, i learned a little and lost a little......
phils suck btw....
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08-31-10 04:43 AM #103
Nice call on the Dogers. What are your leans for today?
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08-31-10 05:53 AM #104
Thanx men.
On to Tuesday
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08-31-10 07:31 AM #105
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