[rhymenocerous]

Line doesn't make sense to me. The Braves will be shut down tomorrow. The Marlins will score 4 or 5 off of Lowe in 6 innings.

[No coincidences]

Have you seen JJ pitch lately?

I love fading Lowe, but not here.

[Truth Be Told]

makes sense

unfortunately johnson will get tagged

[OldSchool75]

trap possibly

[lakerboy]

braves easy call here.

[albo gator]

Atlanta has an outstanding home record. Give me a team that is 45-18 at home with a starting pitcher who has an ERA under 4.50 versus pretty much anyone if I am getting plus money on them. Especially when Johnson's ERA in his last 3 is 5.94 and Lowe's ERA is his last 3 is 3.79.

[raiders32]

Should be a close game, but I think Florida will win.

[rhymenocerous]

Have you seen JJ pitch lately?

I love fading Lowe, but not here.

Johnson has never given up more than 3 runs to the Braves. Lowe hasn't completed 6 innings in his last 4 starts vs FLA (since becoming a Brave) and has given up 17 ERs in 20.2 IPs over that span.

You guys can have your last 3 starts stats all you want. Everyone knows who the better pitcher is in this matchup. It's not really close.

[nbarlotta3]

Johnson has been struggling lately. And the Braves offense might be too much for him to handle.

[siabdo23]

braves sucks lost 7-1 when they shouldve won

[neila]

The difference is the bullpen. Braves is much better.

[rhymenocerous]

Johnson has been struggling lately. And the Braves offense might be too much for him to handle.

It never has been in the past. He has simply dominated the Braves every time he's ever faced them. There are a couple pitchers that I just know - as a Braves fan - that we are in trouble facing. Johnson will get right tomorrow, imo. I can't see the Braves scoring more than 3 in 7 innings. It will all come down to whether Lowe can match that, which I have no faith he will be able to do.

[Dukebluejms]

I think the line is set just about right. This is a "pick em" kind of game. Johnson is the better pitcher, no argument here, but it is hard to deny the Braves home record. And I am not referring to just wins/losses. They have so many come from behind wins and last at bat victories at home, and we all know the Marlins pen cannot be trusted. Braves + money may be the best value on the board tomorrow. Not saying I'm playing it, but this one could go either way. Not to mention Lowe is a much better pitcher in day games...

[rhymenocerous]

The difference is the bullpen. Braves is much better.

That's true, but I don't think it will be a factor tomorrow. I see this as about a 5-2 game going into the 8th.

I put 2 units on the Fish. Not enough to hurt if the Braves win, which will please me also.

[miyakuza]

The line makes perfect sense.

Johnson is Marlin's ace. Braves are one of the best home teams in the league. Its a 50/50.

Last time Johnson pitched, he lasted 6 innings and gave up an ER. Marlins lost 3-4 in 11 innings.

[thirtytwo]

Josh has been tiring out in August and pitched worse every start. Cant trust him right now. Besides, the whole marlin team has quit on the season and their top arms are no exception...

[hoop guru]

Taking the Marlins ML 1st 5 innings is easy money. Braves have given lowe probably the lowest run support for any of their pitchers. Last 3 starts for lowe, the braves have scored a total of 5 runs. Josh Johnson has good numbers against the braves especially in the first 5 innings. Since 2008, Johnson has 6 starts against the braves. In those 6 starts, Johnson has never trailed the braves after 5 innings. In 4 of those starts, the marlins have held the lead. In other 2 starts, the marlins and braves were tied after 5 innings. Johnson has a very good era over 5 innings vs the braves. In 30 innings (5 innings x 6 starts), Johnson has allowed a total of 7 runs in those 30 innings. Johnson has allowed one or few runs in 5 starts. The braves did score 3 runs over 5 innings in one of those starts. Marlins were trailing 10-1 after 5 innings yesterday and should rebound with their ace goin today. All marlins have to do is to score 2 runs in 5 innings and we should win. 2 Marlin hitters have had success against lowe. Hanley Ramirez is 12 for 24, 6 doubles, 5 walks and Dan uggla is 10 for 26, 2 doubles, 2 hr, walk, 7 rbi against Lowe.

[Jnas]

Marlins look good here, Hopefully Johnson can keep his pitch count down and go 8 innings

[thebestthereis]

when johnson starts on the road his team is 4-8, it's all that matters. if you can find a book that pays you on how a pitchers numbers are on a stat sheet and not if his team wins the game he pitches please let me know; i'll pay them to sign up, a shitload too.

[rhymenocerous]

when johnson starts on the road his team is 4-8, it's all that matters.

No. I'm sorry, but that's not "all that matters". Career history tells me that the Braves always struggle against Johnson. I also know that Derek Lowe is as likely to give up 5 in 5 as he is to have a quality start on any given day/night.

[Vaioice]

just stay away from this game.

[mitote]

just stay away from this game.

Finally some great advice!

[phLLyphan11]

Go Marlins....need a Braves loss for the Phils.

[thebertshow]

I like Johnson to win this good call

[PuckCoach]

Florida pen loves blowing JJ leads.

[oiler]

Line doesn't make sense to me. The Braves will be shut down tomorrow. The Marlins will score 4 or 5 off of Lowe in 6 innings.

something definetlt sounds fishy here.but as good as it sounds ,wont touch it

[gryfyn1]

It possible that Johnson is tiring, theres no fact to say that JJ can effectively throw 160+ innings, Keep in mind he is only 26.

Last year was the first time in his career he topped 160 IP his splits

24g 161IP 2.85 ERA 12-2
last 9g 47.1IP, 4.85ERA 3-3

Its possible that as good as he is, he's just not capable (or ready) to be the type of guy who can be dominate start to finish.

Now, this could be an issue with just getting used to pitching 200 innings per year, or this could just be the type of pitcher he will always be. Or it could just be white noise.

[thebestthereis]

No. I'm sorry, but that's not "all that matters". Career history tells me that the Braves always struggle against Johnson. I also know that Derek Lowe is as likely to give up 5 in 5 as he is to have a quality start on any given day/night.

if you are betting his road starts it is all that matters. in 12 starts on the road if you bet him everytime you are broke. it is all that matters in the end unless you have figured out a way to get paid when the marlins lose when he started those games. do tell.

[encephalization]

Think ATL is the way to go here. Johnson struggling and not liking road nor day games against Lowe who plays better at home and in the sun. Braves trackrecord at home is truely amazing and getting them for + is something that I will try any day of the week.

BOL all of you.

[HoulihansTX]

People bet against Bucholtz yesterday who had the best road record in the AL, and his team was 29-7 with him pitching.

Now you have the total opposite situation in Josh Johnson, at least according to road stats. Why cant you bet on him, after betting against Bucky yesterday?

I think its a good day to bet Josh Johnson FF, with him being as cheap as he is.

[gryfyn1]

People bet against Bucholtz yesterday who had the best road record in the AL, and his team was 29-7 with him pitching.

Now you have the total opposite situation in Josh Johnson, at least according to road stats. Why cant you bet on him, after betting against Bucky yesterday?

I think its a good day to bet Josh Johnson FF, with him being as cheap as he is.

Well truthfully Boston should have won that game, if you bet Boston and Lost you should be happy that you made that bet for a long term perspective, If you bet TB then be happy you won.

Boston got 10 hits was 0-7 with runners on, 0-6 on balls in play w/ runners on, and 0-4 w/ RISP and left 8 runner on. TB managed one run because of an error.

[mtneer1212]

Very tough game -- I'm probably staying away:

The Braves maintained their two-game division lead over second-place Philadelphia and jumped 8 1/2 up on Florida, which can likely abandon any postseason hopes if Johnson (11-5, 2.36 ERA) can’t reverse his recent struggles.
The right-hander came into August with a major league-best 1.72 ERA and an impressive case for the NL Cy Young Award, but he’s fallen back to the pack in five starts this month.
After lasting at least six innings for 19 straight starts, Johnson has failed to record 18 outs three times in August. He fell to 1-2 with a 5.34 ERA on the month after surrendering four runs over five innings Tuesday against the Mets, leaving without a decision in a 6-5 loss.
“I’m just not getting deep into the game,” Johnson told the Marlins’ official website. “You can be effectively wild, or whatever you want to call it, and still get deep into the game. To only go five innings, you put your bullpen in a tough spot.”
Johnson is 4-2 with a 2.64 ERA in 13 games - 12 starts - against Atlanta. He gave up one run over six innings and struck out eight in a 4-3, 11-inning loss at Turner Field on July 2.
The Braves counter with Derek Lowe(notes) (11-12, 4.33), who’s lost his last three starts despite a 3.79 ERA. Two homers hurt him Tuesday at Colorado, where he gave up three runs and seven hits over six innings of a 5-2 defeat.
“I saw a lot of baserunners and I minimized the damage,” Lowe told the Braves’ official website. “All in all tonight could have been a lot worse. I worked out of trouble.”
The right-handed sinkerballer is 1-0 with a 7.01 ERA in five starts against Florida over the past three seasons. Though he’s faced the Marlins just once in 2010, he’s a woeful 1-8 with a 4.86 ERA in 11 starts within the division.

[hambino15]

I am a phillies fan and would love to see JJ beat the braves today. All of that aside though, this line screams to take the braves. Should most likely stay away but when you look at a line and say to yourself why is that?.......it normally is never good. Always go the other way in that case. Braves all the way today.

[mtneer1212]

In fact...... wouldn't over 7.5 runs (+110) be a great play here???

[jram68]

LOL they are playing on the road against a stout braves lineup