SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Florida Marlins = Best Value Play Tonight
* The Marlins come into Atlanta with renewed hopes at a playoff spot. With the Braves and Phillies scuffling in their last series, and the Marlins continuing to win, they find themselves only 6.5 in the Wildcard race and 8.5 in the NL East. It is hard to believe this team could still be in it after trading away their clean up hitter in Jorge Cantu in July and waiving a starting OF in Cody Ross a week or so ago, but they are very much alive. The Marlins have won 7 of their last 9 games coming into Friday night’s matchup, and they have won 8 of their last 9 on the road. The reason for the Marlins recent success has been their pitching staff. The Marlins, as a team, have posted a 2.84 ERA in the last 10 games. This has been from both the bullpen and the starters, both having ERAs below 3.00. Also, they have been getting production throughout the lineup. Hanley Ramirez has been on fire in August: .360 batting average and 4 bombs. Also, Cody Ross’ replacement, Logan Morrison has played a huge role. He has hit .308 in August.
The Marlins best player this year has probably been Dan Uggla. He is having one of his best seasons as a pro, and he has man handled the Braves all year. In 9 games thus far this season, Uggla is batting .333 (12 for 36) against the Braves with 4 home runs. This is not an anomaly either. In his career, Uggla has hit .294 (94 for 320) against the Braves with 21 home runs and 58 rbi’s, which is his best production against any single team. His production only increases when playing in Atlanta, where he is a .361 lifetime hitter in 39 games with 10 bombs and 33 rbi’s. Uggla does, however, struggle vs. Tommy Hanson where he is just 1 for 9.
I am not saying the Marlins are a sure fire winner, but they are the best value on the board. The key to winning in betting baseball is to pick your spots and try to find these value plays. A red-hot team at +185 against a struggling team is a prime example. So many people in betting use the strategy of “they are due”. This will lose your bankroll faster than most anything else. My philosophy is to ride the hot teams until they falter. The Braves are coming off a sweep at the hands of the Rockies where they just played bad baseball. Their bullpen has been getting hit hard (Johnny Venters picked up his first two losses of the season in Denver), and the offense has been struggling. Some may say, “Wait, didn’t they put up 10 on Wednesday?” Yes, they did, but that was in the first 3 innings and they didn’t score again. In my previous blogs I discussed the Braves lack of fundamentals lately, and it hasn’t gotten any better. They aren’t moving runners over, they can’t score guys after lead off doubles, and they are getting zero production from their 4 and 5 guys in the order. The Braves are a much better home team, so I think they should be a favorite, but not this much. This is definitely a case of Marlins being the play or no play at all. My play (small): Florida ML.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Rbyrne
