1. #1
    Willie Bee
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    2008 MLB Preview - Philadelphia Phillies

    Phillies looking for NL East repeat

    It’ll take more than a Jimmy Rollins guarantee when Philadelphia defends their NL East title in '08. With the Mets and Braves beefed up, the Phillies have targets on their backs.

    Thank goodness shortstop Jimmy Rollins shot his mouth off last March declaring the Phillies were the team to beat in the NL East. Without his boast willing Philadelphia to the division title, it wouldn’t have happened. Well, the Mets’ collapse might have played at least a small part in it.

    The irony is their winning season, their first postseason appearance since 1993, came during the same year the Phillies became the first franchise in MLB history to cross the 10,000 loss mark.

    Ok, let’s not take too much away from the Phillies and their division crown last year. True, if the Mets hadn’t fallen apart Philadelphia would not have won it. But they did take advantage of the opportunity they were presented with and ran with it. And the sweep in the NLDS at the hands of the Rockies was simply a case of running into a team that was playing so far above their heads.

    GM Pat Gillick pulled off a couple of trades and signings this winter in an attempt to tweak the roster that manager Charlie Manuel will have to work with, the biggest change being the swap to acquire reliever Brad Lidge from Houston. With one of the top young hurlers in the game in the rotation, Cole Hamels, and a solid core of hitters led by Rollins, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, it just might be enough to capture a second consecutive title.

    Just don’t count on another late slide from the hardballers in Queens, Phillies, and you might also want to keep an eye on that squad down in Atlanta that used to hold a monopoly on the division.

    PITCHING
    The mound was nothing short of horrendous last season despite some outstanding individual contributions. Philadelphia ranked 13th among NL clubs in ERA (4.73), 14th in homers allowed, 11th in walks issued and 12th in sending batters back to the dugout with a K on their scorecard. Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee won’t keep their jobs after this season if there isn’t marked improvement from the pitchers, be it their fault or not.

    Much like the Yankees, the mound utilized a revolving door strategy with 28 pitchers in total and 13 different arms making starts. Assuming Lidge can get back even close to his old ways, that will go a long way towards providing some level of consistency and confidence to the entire staff. Of course, that’s a big ‘if’ considering how Lidge’s last couple of years have gone. Lidge is also coming off knee surgery and just now about to see his first live action of the spring.

    If Lidge isn’t ready for Opening Day – And currently it appears he will be ready – Tom Gordon will slide into the closer’s role for a temporary period. That’s not a bad thing, even though the 40-year-old Gordon is coming off a down year that saw him miss time with injury. If Lidge can’t get back into form and Gordon has to close most of the season, then it’s not a good thing for Phillie hopes in 2008.

    Left-hander J.C. Romero is coming off a nice year with a sub-2.00 ERA despite a rather lofty WHIP count (1.40) for an ERA that low. But why Gillick signed him to a three-year deal this offseason is beyond me. Ryan Madson is also off a solid 2007, though he missed the team’s last 60 games or so with a shoulder injury. We’ll see if Manuel is tempted to use Madson for more than one inning as he did often the first four months of ‘07.

    The rest of the bullpen is up in the air right now with a long list of has been’s and could be’s battling. But at some point look for Scott Mathieson to find his way into the mix once he shows he’s fully recovered from Tommy John surgery in late 2006.

    The rotation is more settled than the bullpen, so that’s good news. Brett Myers, miscast last year in the closer’s role, will get the Opening Day call for Philadelphia followed by southpaws Hamels and the ageless Jamie Moyer. In the four-slot will be Kyle Kendrick who had a strong rookie season with a 10-4 record and 3.87 ERA.

    The fifth slot was Adam Eaton’s to lose, and so far he’s done just that nursing a sore back that will likely put him on the DL to open the season. Philadelphia has two Durbin’s in camp, Chad and J.D., and so far Chad might have the inside track on being Eaton’s replacement. Francisco Rosario is also putting up a fight, so the loser will join the bullpen picture.

    OFFENSE/DEFENSE
    As scary as this is going to sound to their opposition, the Phillies offense could be even better this season than they were last when they finished first in the NL in runs scored (892), on-base (.354), slugging (.458) and walks (.641), plus ranked second with 213 homers and second with 138 steals. Most amazing about that SB number is the Phils also ranked last in times caught, getting thrown out just 19 times for a remarkable 88% success rate as a team.

    Rollins, of course, led the way with a .296 average, 38 doubles, 20 triples, 30 homers, 139 runs scored, 94 driven in from the leadoff spot and 41 steals. No wonder he was the NL MVP.

    His double play partner at second, Utley, also had a fabulous season as did Howard at first who launched 47 bombs and drove in 136. That pretty much sums up the infield that will be filled out by free agent acquisition Pedro Feliz and his career .288 on-base mark to go with his rather iron-like glove.

    Infield backups figure to be Eric Bruntlett, Ray Olmedo and either Greg Dobbs or Wes Helms, with Helms reportedly being shopped.

    The outfield lost Aaron Rowand in center after he signed with San Francisco following his .309-27 HR campaign. Shane Victorino, used primarily in right last season, will slide into Rowand’s vacated spot flanked by Pat Burrell in left with newcomer Geoff Jenkins out in right. Victorino's speed and pop to the order will be crucial and if Burrell’s second half spurt is a sign of what he’ll bring this year, that will make this a tough lineup to hold down once again.

    Outfield backups should be So Taguchi and Jayson Werth, with Chris Snelling also in the running.

    Carlos Ruiz will be the catcher with Chris Coste his backup.

    Key Player(s): Let’s start on the mound with the guy who will end the games, Lidge. The pressure is on after coming over from the Astros in a trade, and it’s not like the big former Fighting Irish hurler will be pitching in a more friendly ballpark this year than the one he was accustomed to in Houston. The rotation should be average, at worst, so Lidge and the bullpen are critical.

    The offense should be way above average, so staying healthy and playing solid defense is the key there.

    Futures: The Greek set their wins break at 87½, offering -105 on the over and -115 on the under. Philadelphia averaged 87.8 wins in my five sims, not enough to swing me to either side of that number currently.

    The folks at 5Dimes make the Phils +320 to repeat in the NL East which seems like a nice enough number to me. Philadelphia is +800 at 5Dimes to win their first NL Pennant since 1993 and +2200 to take home the World Series hardware for the first time since 1980.

  2. #2
    stump
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    Not enough pitching. bullpen having to depend on Lidge is trouble, I don't see them returning to the playoffs.

  3. #3
    OLGC_Slayer
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    Phillies are my team but man that bullpen is brutal. I really don't see them repeating unless the Mets really take a dump again.
    I dont trust Kendrick or Eaton, if Myers or Hamels goes down for any significant amount of time they are done.

  4. #4
    thezbar
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    Appears a two team race, Phils and Mets. I don't see the braves in the hunt at the end. I might play the Phils to win the division if the price is right.

  5. #5
    OLGC_Slayer
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    Gordon is not the answer at closer. I dont care how many times he says his arm feels good.

  6. #6
    Willie Bee
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    Phils should outscore a lot of teams a lot of the time, but like y'all said, it's going to come down to their pitching as far as postseason hopes go. I felt the pain of Lidge's slide as much as anyone the past couple of years following my 'Stros, but while I really don't like the Phillies (huge understatement), I'm rooting for him to have a great comeback season this year. A real stand-up guy, never made any excuses or ducked the media during his struggles with Houston.

    One stat I didn't pick up on last year that I found most amazing when I was crunching some numbers at the end with the Phillies was their baserunning. Second in the NL with 138 steals and first in fewest times caught, just 19 all season. That's an incredible 88% success rate for the team when 70%-75% is generally thought of as good for an individual player.

  7. #7
    OLGC_Slayer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie Bee View Post

    One stat I didn't pick up on last year that I found most amazing when I was crunching some numbers at the end with the Phillies was their baserunning. Second in the NL with 138 steals and first in fewest times caught, just 19 all season. That's an incredible 88% success rate for the team when 70%-75% is generally thought of as good for an individual player.
    Two words.
    Davey.
    Lopes.

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