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Diamondbacks/Padres Tonight
Game 905 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. 906 San Diego Padres
Selection: San Diego Padres -1.5 runs
Reason: Huge home road dichotomy favors the Padres in this matchup, who are 38-22 at home vs. 18-42 on the road for Arizona. We lay the runs because 31 of 42 of the Diamondbacks' road losses have been by 2 or more runs. With the improved hitting, 8/10 home Padres wins since the break have been by 2 or more runs. In fact, when favored in this price range, 8 of their 14 games have been wins of 2 or more runs. There is great value here laying the runs and taking a price. Current form favors the Padres as well, as they have won 13 of 16 while Arizona has won just 3 of 12. Arizona's road woes have translated to Kennedy as they have won just 5 of his 13 road starts over which time he has posted a 4.83 ERA. Padres starter Correia has pitched much better since the ASB and has a 2.63 ERA in 4 home starts vs. Arizona. Rounding out the selection is an MLB best San Diego bullpen with a 2.41 ERA vs. an Arizona bullpen which is a Major League worst 6.37 ERA on the road. Lay the runs with San Diego.
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Originally Posted by Rbyrne
