[MadCapper]

Well by now you all read yesterdays thread about not betting on the huge favorites playing against teams that have youngsters playing for their lives, teams that are playing spoiler, teams that are playing loose. Once again a prize fighter went down when the lowly Astros edged Doc Halladay and the might mighty Phillies. Many people I know adhered to my warnings. But still a number of people put money on the Phillies -330 money line in individual bets, and as the anchor of all their parlays. Some bettors even got greedy and took the Phillies on the run line at a steep price of -160. Not sure why you would take a HOME team that cant score, getting 1 less at bat on the run line ever. Let alone -160. But people fell for the due theory...or maybe just the better team HAS to win theory.

Well today there might be one even worse. Why is it worse? Well for one...the price is cheaper. Secondly, the team is looking to avoid an embarrassing, perhaps devastating 3 game losing streak to very inferior teams. Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals are -190 favorites looking to avoid a 3 game losing streak against Jordan Zimmerman and the lowly Nationals. The playoff contending (pretending?) Cardinals are coming off 2 disgusting losses to the Pittsburgh Pirates. They were very big favorites in both games. They are falling further behind the division leading Reds. Now they get to feast on a weak Nationals team, with a pitcher making his FIRST start after Tommy John surgery. -190 is expensive, but considering the situation, and the importance of this game for the Cardinals, with one of their Aces on the hill....it almost seems like a cheap lock.


But, once again, I will tell you to beware. At least the Phillies were -330 favorites against Houston. So the -330 scared some people off. But -190 is cheap enough to intrigue some bettors to wager on them. This game has disaster written all over it. The Cards are in a mini-hitting slump (just as Philly is), and Zimmerman has the talent to hold the Cards down. The Nationals are a loose team. They have some offensive talent with Zimmerman, Dunn, Morgan, and Desmond. They fight. The are playing spoiler now, and they will get up for a series (at home) against Big Bad Pujols and the Cardinals.


Once again I will leave off by saying:

By no means am I telling you that Washington will win. But what I am telling you is not to put all your money on a -190 favorite in this situation. As I tell fellow bettors: "Even the best teams in baseball lose 60+ games" and "even the best pitchers in baseball barely win 50% of the games they start".


I wish you luck with whatever you decide to do. Hopefully you learned something today.

[Power Play]

Do you REALLY want to lay -200 on a team with a LOSING record on the road and also in terrible form offensively? The Cards are always a threat to be shut out at any time (remember the 20 inning game against the Mets earlier this year when they went 18 innings of 0-0 ball); totally feast or famine. Based on the forum posts they're also one of the most unpredictable teams in baseball with a tendency to lose when you think they'll win and win when you expect them to lose.

[orangeheaven]

Washingtons Pen is pretty good. Ill sprinkle a lil on wash for fun tomorrow.

[MadCapper]

Do you REALLY want to lay -200 on a team with a LOSING record on the road and also in terrible form offensively? The Cards are always a threat to be shut out at any time (remember the 20 inning game against the Mets earlier this year when they went 18 innings of 0-0 ball); totally feast or famine. Based on the forum posts they're also one of the most unpredictable teams in baseball with a tendency to lose when you think they'll win and win when you expect them to lose.

You have a better grasp on the situation than the common public square does. The square sees Carpenter in a "must-win" game as the biggest favorite on the board, and believes that means the Cards have the best chance to win.

[CollegePro]

i am not betting on this game since I promised myself not to bet on cardinals game anymore..... but, cubbies just swept the nationals. They played very poorlly against cubbies. I can't see how cardinals can lose this game against washington with their ace up tomorrow(carpenter ****** me couple time already though).

[MadCapper]

Washingtons Pen is pretty good. Ill sprinkle a lil on wash for fun tomorrow.

Or stay away. Or even grab them at +1.5 for plus money.

[MadCapper]

i am not betting on this game since I promised myself not to bet on cardinals game anymore..... but, cubbies just swept the nationals. They played very poorlly against cubbies. I can't see how cardinals can lose this game against washington with their ace up tomorrow(carpenter ****** me couple time already though).

Same way the Phillies couldnt lose 3 in a row @ home to the lowly Astros with THEIR ace on the bump - Halladay?

[CollegePro]

Same way the Phillies couldnt lose 3 in a row @ home to the lowly Astros with THEIR ace on the bump - Halladay?

kind of different story on that phillies game to me.... juice was way to high..... however, cards' game is not as high...

[Prey]

Phillies -1.5 it is

[MadCapper]

kind of different story on that phillies game to me.... juice was way to high..... however, cards' game is not as high...

Exactly what I thought/said:

But, once again, I will tell you to beware. At least the Phillies were -330 favorites against Houston. So the -330 scared some people off. But -190 is cheap enough to intrigue some bettors to wager on them.

[antifoil]

the astros are actually around 5 games above .500 since the beginning of june

[MadCapper]

the astros are actually around 5 games above .500 since the beginning of june

Especially after beating the Phillies.

[Truth Be Told]

cards entire offense is pujols

[chazzy]

nice write up **. thanks. No play on this game for me.

[AMcBoarder]

MadC. Thanks for the insight. Very helpful. If I had any balls I'd have an extra $300 in my pocket however I couldn't pull the trigger on the Stros ML. Took some under though which worked out. Your write ups are much appreciated.

[LiarGame]

Nice writeup **. Thanks for the warning

[scratbandit]

Very true and very straight to the point for sure...

[landers781]

Gota love the homedog at that price. Took houston -1.5, ml and +1.5 today and worked out perfectly!

[mitote]

Some people never learn! No matter what you try to show them they will continue to make the same mistakes! And that is why 95% of all gamblers lose money! On this site it might be closer to 99%!

[MadCapper]

Thanx for the POINTS Liar Game!

[HedBustah1]

Nice writeup, gl today

[Wilforth]

Despite this thread, folks will still lay on the Cardinals because it looks to them like a "lock". I also posted a thread warning folks that the Cardinals have lost 5 of their last 6 series vs. teams with a losing record.

[KACK]

I should of listen to you yesterday... I had the phillies RL... Like the write up...

[MadCapper]

nice write up **. thanks. No play on this game for me.

Anytime!

[MadCapper]

MadC. Thanks for the insight. Very helpful. If I had any balls I'd have an extra $300 in my pocket however I couldn't pull the trigger on the Stros ML. Took some under though which worked out. Your write ups are much appreciated.

Each day a new lesson is learned. Good luck today!

[MadCapper]

Nice writeup **. Thanks for the warning

Anytime. Just trying to help!

And, again, THANX FOR THE betpoints!

[MadCapper]

Very true and very straight to the point for sure...

[MadCapper]

Gota love the homedog at that price. Took houston -1.5, ml and +1.5 today and worked out perfectly!

Nice cash!!!

[MadCapper]

Despite this thread, folks will still lay on the Cardinals because it looks to them like a "lock". I also posted a thread warning folks that the Cardinals have lost 5 of their last 6 series vs. teams with a losing record.

Hard to teach old dogs new tricks.

The Cards may win...but its definitely not as simple as it seems.

[MadCapper]

I should of listen to you yesterday... I had the phillies RL... Like the write up...

Hey...I am not sure I would of listened to myself a few years ago. But we learn new things everyday! Good luck!

[buzzer]

In august the dogs always have there day, been hitting them for a awhile only not getting rich just even.

[MadCapper]

Just curious.....Do they ever give the points for these 2 things?

* 10 points for contributing a well thought out pick write up or handicapping oriented post in any sports subforum. Only original content is eligible for this reward. This reward is given out at SBR's discretion when a post is of high quality.

* A nominated post eligible for 10 points. Posters are able to point out which posts within threads they like or appreciate by clicking the icon at the bottom of each post . These posts are highlighted in a Nominated/Best Posts forum. 10 nominations converts to 10 betpoints.

[soxwin]

houston is one of the better teams in the NL right now. 40-31(.563 win %) over their last 71 games. 3rd maybe 4th best over that stretch. No joke right there.

[secret007]

Lost big on big favorite ( Tigers ) today .

[MadCapper]

Lost big on big favorite ( Tigers ) today .

KC was a play for me yesterday.

My 2 losses were actually TB and ATL.

I won with KC and Houston.