1. #1
    jorge1
    OM
    jorge1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-06-10
    Posts: 3,520

    Dog chase experiment

    As i mentioned before, Im taking off a week from betting real money and am just vacationing through the site...watching games, refreshing and taking some time without thinking of the actual money...During this time im experimenting with several strategies. For one, i am making ONE PICK PER DAY in my 1 PICK A DAY FOR 7DAYS thread...here i am at improving and honing my capping by just picking out my most solid pick of the day, doing a write up and seeing if i hit that magic 7-0.

    In this thread, however, im looking to do a dog chase jsut for fun and see how it goes. These are the rules, anyone wanna tail, tail small, anyone wanna ignore, go ahead

    Rules:
    For math purposes lets say that we have a BR of 500 bucks. We will bet 2% initial bet per dog, so it will be 10 bucks per dog. We are betting EVERY DOG on the board, and chasing wins all through this week to see how we do. If it works well and the BR is safe throughout the course of the week, i will continue the thread and dedicate 500 bucks to this next week.

    DAY 1, Monday, BR= 500, AT RISK = 90:
    PIT +113 .1x
    CHC +162 .1x
    HOU +164 .1x
    NYY +111 .1x
    KC +155 .1x
    SEA +185 .1x
    MIN +138 .15x
    COL +108 .15x
    CIN +122 .15x
    LAA +129 .15x
    Last edited by jorge1; 08-23-10 at 08:59 PM.

  2. #2
    newjerseydevils
    newjerseydevils's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-11-08
    Posts: 3,110
    Betpoints: 12

    have fun on your days off...........a lot of us can use days off. games too stressfull these days

  3. #3
    jorge1
    OM
    jorge1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-06-10
    Posts: 3,520

    Quote Originally Posted by newjerseydevils View Post
    have fun on your days off...........a lot of us can use days off. games too stressfull these days
    yeah...I was gettin stressed after having an amazing july, then august been a flat plateau for me...so im just pokin around...talkin trash...just watching games this week...playing around with some experiments and posting them...cappin ONE game a day, etc etc...

  4. #4
    jorge1
    OM
    jorge1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-06-10
    Posts: 3,520

    This will probably get buried today though...lots of faves lookin alright...i would honestly put a good chunk of money on CINCY and on COLO as good dogs for tonight though.

  5. #5
    8ArIvd5
    8ArIvd5's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-24-10
    Posts: 3,175
    Betpoints: 1044

    I thought you're betting 10 on every dog. Why pending amounts and 15 on others?

  6. #6
    Rio DiNero
    using no way as way
    Rio DiNero's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-03-08
    Posts: 2,010
    Betpoints: 218

    I used this theory years ago and it worked VERY well, and it was even stronger after the All Star break. That being said if you did this the past two years you would have gotten killed.

  7. #7
    jorge1
    OM
    jorge1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-06-10
    Posts: 3,520

    15 bucks because im pretty sure ill lose 2 of the early bets... pending because after allt he early games ill see How much i would wager to chase the losses of a game or two...

  8. #8
    jorge1
    OM
    jorge1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-06-10
    Posts: 3,520

    Yeah, this year some weeks dogs kill it, but then some days faves win across the board...example yesterday..so i think either today or tomorrow will be one of those dog days given all the recent fave winners...just my OP

  9. #9
    Rio DiNero
    using no way as way
    Rio DiNero's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-03-08
    Posts: 2,010
    Betpoints: 218

    Quote Originally Posted by jorge1 View Post
    Yeah, this year some weeks dogs kill it, but then some days faves win across the board...example yesterday..so i think either today or tomorrow will be one of those dog days given all the recent fave winners...just my OP
    IMO the best way to do this is not blind, look at each series individually and pick the ones that you know the same team will be dogs in every game in the series. Next use your own capping and filter out the ones you believe may not win one game in the series. Just my two cents.

  10. #10
    broadway6
    on to the next one
    broadway6's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-14-09
    Posts: 13,337
    Betpoints: 1338

    Good luck jorge

  11. #11
    jorge1
    OM
    jorge1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-06-10
    Posts: 3,520

    Quote Originally Posted by Rio DiNero View Post
    IMO the best way to do this is not blind, look at each series individually and pick the ones that you know the same team will be dogs in every game in the series. Next use your own capping and filter out the ones you believe may not win one game in the series. Just my two cents.
    I agree..well we will do it blindly this week and see what we learn..It is a good idea to just chase the dog allt hree games until you get a win in the series..i thought of that also...i might try that..lets see how it goes tonight...

    Quote Originally Posted by broadway6 View Post
    Good luck jorge
    thanks, just an experiment

  12. #12
    jorge1
    OM
    jorge1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-06-10
    Posts: 3,520

    Quote Originally Posted by jorge1 View Post
    DAY 1, Monday, BR= 500, AT RISK = 90:
    PIT +113 .1x
    CHC +162 .1x
    HOU +164 .1x
    NYY +111 .1x
    KC +155 .1x
    SEA +185 .1x
    MIN +138 .15x
    COL +108 .15x
    CIN +122 .15x
    LAA +129 .15x
    3-7 / -.312x last night...lets continue the chase tonight
    Last edited by jorge1; 08-24-10 at 03:43 PM.

  13. #13
    Rixsaw
    Rixsaw's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-23-08
    Posts: 4,532
    Betpoints: 96

    It's a little bit late in the season to be chasing dogs, especially when going against teams in playoff contention. You may still have some success on the weekend games starting Friday. Have fun.

    PS: rather than keeping a record of W-L, it is more meaningful to keep track of $ or unit +-.

  14. #14
    jorge1
    OM
    jorge1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-06-10
    Posts: 3,520

    DAY 2, BR = 468.80:

    CHC +123 .20x
    TOR +102 .20x
    NYM +109 .20x
    HOU +225 .10x
    PIT +215 .10x
    KC +161 .10x
    SEA +190 .10x
    MIN +124 TBD
    MIL +113 TBD
    BAL +159 TBD
    ARI +179 TBD

Top