Originally Posted by
Sawyer
I must admit that baseball totals are very tricky. Definetely, basketball totals are more easier to beat and cap..
The problem about Baseball Totals is, a pitcher with high ERA can pitch a good game while a pitcher with low ERA can get shelled in 3rd inning.
Bullpens are another problem. Even Arizona pen can pitch good games. You don't know which players will get the ball after 7th inning but you can increase your chance if you pick a sick-bullpen team like Brewers or Zona.
So if you want to be succesful in baseball totals, you should be VERY selective. Wait for the right opportunity and hammer it! There may be times where you won't have any plays for 2-3 days.
Another advice is, reduce the role of starters when capping a game. Believe me, their role is less then %50, maybe %40.
Motivation is also important. Hammer the UNDER when a good pitcher meets an awful pitcher (like Oswalt vs Olsen today or Marquis vs Halladay 2 days ago). Ace pitcher's team (usually) won't give too much run support since they will be relaxed cause they have their ace on the mound. They believe he won't give many runs so they feel comfortable and don't give %100. On the other side, bad pitcher likes the duel the good pitcher and he's pitching a much better game, playing his best game. Just my opinion/theory, feel free to agree or disagree..but works great for me so far..
PS: Make sure home team with good pitcher is not a hot-offensive team like Yanks.