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Padres vs. Cubs - Big Total Play!
First the recap, lost yesterday with the Over in the Astros game as no one was able to produce any runs
You guys know I do not like to lose and when I do I usually bounce back. Tonight, I'm going to bounce back in a big way. Breaking this Padres/Cubs game and boy do I see some things that I like. We have Jon Garland going for the Padres and Randy Wells going for the Cubs. Let's talk about Garland first. He is 11-8 on the year with a 3.41 ERA. In his last 3 starts he is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Pretty good numbers as of late, however there is some concern. First off his last few starts have been cupcakes because he has started against the Pirates, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Dodgers with all but 1 of them coming at home. I actually looked at all of Garland's opponents this year and they are all soft ('Stros, Nationals, O's to name a few). When he takes his talents on the road he becomes a different pitcher. He is 4-6 on the year with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. In 65.2 innings pitched he has given up 66 hits, 37 runs, 23 walks, and 9 home runs. His opponents on base percentage is also .337 in road starts. I like Garland he has been around a long time, but he has got some real easy match ups this year and I think his numbers are a little deceiving. Let's talk about Wells now.
Randy Wells is 5-10 on the year with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. In his last 3 starts he is 0-2 with a gigantic 8.44 ERA. In only 16 innings pitched he has given up 23 hits, 17 runs, 5 walks, and 5 home runs. Yikes. His opponents on base percentage in those starts is .387 with a WHIP of 1.87. In other words, he has been batting practice for most teams as of late. I looked at both of Randy's night and home starts and everything is pretty much the same. He is 3-5 in home starts and an even worse 1-5 in night starts. His ERA is hovering over 4 in both situations and he has given up more hits than innings pitched. Padres just put up 9 against Gorzelany who I thought is in better form than Randy, so I'm having a very hard time believing the Pads will not put up a few here tonight.
The umpire in tonight's game is Ed Hickox. Ed has started 25 games this year and the home team is 12-13 in those starts and the over has cashed 14 times when he's behind the plate. Ed is no stranger to either teams as he has umped 2 games for each team. Guess what the results were in those 4 games? OVER, OVER, OVER, AND OVER. Mr. Hickox's games average 10.24 runs per game when he calls the balls and strikes, not to mention 2.12 home runs are hit when he's the ump. Here's some other angles and stats for Ed as well as situations and angles that I found in today's match up. Over is 4-0 in Hickoxs last 4 Tuesday games behind home plate. Over is 7-2 in Hickoxs last 9 games behind home plate vs. San Diego. Over is 8-3 in Hickoxs last 11 games behind home plate vs. Chicago. Now here's the match up stats that I found to support my play today. Over is 8-2 in Padres last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 7-2 in Padres last 9 during game 2 of a series. Over is 5-1 in Garlands last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Look to the Cubs side and it gets even better. Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. National League West. Over is 5-1-2 in Cubs last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 Tuesday games. Over is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 15-6-1 in Cubs last 22 games following a loss. And last but not least. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two ball clubs. It is not too hot right now in Chicago and the wind is blowing SE at 7mph. That means the wind is blowing out to left and left to right. Like I said, I think Garland's numbers are false and Wells has been terrible as of late. Both teams proved last night that they are going to bring the bats out for this series and that will continue tonight. Don't ask me why, but I think the Cubs win tonight as well, just what my gut is telling me. I don't do this often, but I'm doubling my normal wager of 2 to 4 on this one. Fade or play I wish all my friends here the best of luck. Let's get this one!
SD Padres/Chicago Cubs Over 9 (-105)
Risking 420 to Win 400
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Originally Posted by Regul8er
