The Tampa Bay Rays are definitely in a rut at the moment as they are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games. Though the Rays are 7-2 SU against the Orioles this season, facing the hottest team in baseball doesn’t necessarily give them a boost of confidence as they start this series. The last place Orioles are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have certainly been playing excellent baseball for their new skipper.
After a disappointing road trip, Tampa Bay will be glad to get back home where they are 11 games above 0.500 at (34-23 SU) for the season and 8-3 SU since the All-Star break. One good thinh though, the Rays are still only 2 games behind the Yankees for the lead in the AL East. Also, they have a 4 game lead in the Wild Card race. Tampa Bay is motivated to turn the ship around during this home stand. "Our standards are set high," manager Joe Maddon said. "We are aiming to win a division and go deep into the postseason, so we want to win every game."
Tonight, James Shields gets the start for the Rays, and he’s coming off of a miserable outing at Toronto where he gave up 6 home runs. Over the past 2 seasons, the Rays are 9-1 against Baltimore with Shields as the starting pitcher. For the season, Shields (10-10) is sporting a 4.91 ERA for the season (5.39 xERA and 4.66 FIP-ERA). Overall, Shields is 2-1 (5.00 ERA) in his last 3 starts. Since the All-Star Break, Shields has home wins over the Detroit Tigers (Justin Verlander) and the New York Yankees (CC Sabthia).
For the Os, Jeremy Guthrie will be looking with win his third straight starts. Guthrie is coming off a 4-3 win over the White Sox where he gave up on one earned run in eight innings. For the season, Guthrie is 6-11 with a 4.04 ERA (3.94 xERA, 4.69 FIP-ERA). In his last 3 starts, he is 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. Guthrie has struggled on the road all season as he is just 1-6, 4.48 ERA, 1.45 WHIP. Since the 2008 season, Baltimore is 1-7 SU over all against Tampa Bay with Guthrie as the starter, and they have not won on the road.
The Tampa Bay bullpen is #3 in the AL (3.26 ERA) and will likely continue to get tested with Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann on the DL.
A league wide trend that favors Tampa Bay is:
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL
Since 2007, this trend is 140-57 SU (+44.80 units, +13.4% ROI) overall. On home teams, this trend is 130-47 SU (+50.80 units, +16.8% ROI), and it’s 64-22 SU (+27.10 units, +18.3% ROI) on home teams off a loss. Home teams off a loss as a dog are 18-5 SU (+9.40 units, +24.5 ROI).
Another league wide trend that favors Tampa Bay is:
Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -200 or more - with a team OBP of 0.380 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing
Since 2005, this trend is 50-18 SU (+9.90 units, +6.4% ROI). For games in August, this trend is 12-3 SU (+4.80u, +13.3% ROI).
Tonight, I’m taking the Tampa Bay Rays on the -1 RL. BOL
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