[Willie Bee]

Rockies likely to slide back in '08

Outside of perhaps the team that swept them in the World Series and the individual statistical milestones reached in ’07, the Rockies were the season’s top story. Can they repeat?

Near the end of last August, Colorado went into San Francisco with a 67-63 record that had them fourth in the NL West, 6½ games behind Arizona. The Rockies promptly lost the first two games of a three-game set with the Giants to sit 67-65 at the end of play on Aug 28. There were 30 games left in the season at that point.

Colorado would win 22 of those next 30 games, including 11-straight from Sep 16-27 when they swept a four-game and three-game series from the Dodgers sandwiched around a three-game sweep of the Padres in San Diego. When the dust settled on Sep 30, the Rocks and Pads were tied for the NL Wild Card with 89-73 records. Colorado triumphed in the one-game playoff and the Rockies were in the playoffs.

The Rockies’ amazing late-season run was one of the best, if not the best, I’ve seen in my lifetime. After ending the season on a 14-1 run in the regular season, including that one-game Wild Card playoff, Colorado then promptly won their first seven playoff games, sweeping past the Phillies in the NLDS and the D-Backs in the NLCS. And that’s where the magic ran out as Clint Hurdle & Co. ran into a Boston buzz saw and were swept from their first World Series.

Now Hurdle and the gang are hoping to prove that 2007 was not an aberration.

PITCHING
No, they didn’t have arms that were considered among the elite or placed high in Cy Young or NL Fireman of the Year voting. But the Rockies did have a solid mound when you look at the whole picture. Colorado made it through the season with a 4.83 ERA at home and respectable 4.47 on the road, allowing just 4.65 runs per game to finish in the middle of the NL pack in that stat. When you consider that the Mets’ staff allowed 4.63 runs per game and Padres pitchers recorded a 4.73 ERA away from San Diego, Rockies hurlers were underrated as a group.

The six starters who made at least 14 starts last year all had ERAs in the 4.12 to 4.94 range. Throw in Franklin Morales (3.43) and Taylor Buchholz (4.23) who each made eight starts, and it was a reliable rotation. Jeff Francis was the stopper, no doubt, going 17-9 and striking out 165 in 215 frames, and the lefty will be counted on to play the role of ace once again. Aaron Cook, who missed the last seven weeks of the regular season with a strained oblique, will pitch out of the two-hole in the order after signing a three-year extension to stay in Colorado.

Currently it looks like Ubaldo Jimenez and Jason Hirsh will take the 3-4 positions coming out of camp. Reports from Spring Training are that Jimenez added some beef to his frame, something the Rockies hope will allow him to pitch deeper into ball games. Hirsh, who had a fractured right fibula shut him down last year, is reportedly not competing for a starting job, but I wouldn’t be so sure.

If Hirsh is the fourth starter, it leaves just one spot for the likes of lefty Morales and right-handers Josh Towers and Kip Wells to fight for. There is some indication that Colorado might think about starting the year with the 22-year-old Morales in the bullpen to hold his innings down early before moving him into the rotation around June. Considering the numbers that Wells and Towers have thrown down the past couple of seasons, that plan could be nixed.

The Rockies began 2007 with Brian Fuentes as their closer before the southpaw went down with a rib cage injury in early July. That opened the door for Manny Corpas to assume the role of closer, and Fuentes never regained the spot once he returned. The offseason rumor mill was burning up with teams inquiring about Fuentes, and they could still trade him. But for now, the Corpas-Fuentes duo gives the Rockies a very strong set of relievers on the back end.

With Jeremy Affeldt, LaTroy Hawkins and Jorge Julio each heading out of Colorado in the winter, Hurdle and pitching coach Bob Apodaca will be rebuilding the bullpen in front of Corpas and Fuentes. Four names at the top of that list are right-handers Luis Vizcaino, Ryan Speier, Matt Herges and Buchholz. Assuming all four have a spot on Opening Day, it really leaves just one opening that will likely go to a lefty, either Morales as previously discussed, Micah Bowie (who has been very injury prone) or veteran Mark Redman. Victor Zambrano is also in camp as a non-roster invitee.

OFFENSE/DEFENSE
Seven of the eight regular position players are back this season, and that could be trouble for NL pitchers considering the offensive prowess the lineup showed in 2007. Colorado ranked first or second in the NL in runs, hits, walks, batting average and on-base percentage. The team actually finished just above the middle of the pack in HR and SB, but the balance was amazing.

Let’s start in the outfield that has Matt Holliday in left, Brad Hawpe in right and Willy Taveras in center. Holliday posted MVP numbers, and many feel he should’ve won the award of Philly’s Jimmy Rollins. Yet some writers apparently factored in the old Coors Field effect in not voting for Holliday, a silly notion if there was one nowadays.

Hawpe came up with some big hits in September for the club, and just about any other hitter who posted 29 HR, 116 RBI and .291-.387-.439 stats would be talked up far more than this LSU alum has been. Taveras proved to be just what the Rockies were hoping when they got him before the ’07 season from Houston, running down balls in the expansive center field at Coors and stealing 33 bases. What Colorado probably didn’t expect was a .320 batting average. If he can avoid the leg injury that limited him to less than 100 games, he’s a threat to steal 50+ and score 100+ times at the top of this order.

Vying for reserve outfield roles are Ryan Spilborghs and Cory Sullivan. The Rockies also have Scott Podsednik in camp, but it will probably take an injury for him to make the club. Plus the club has to figure out something to do with Ian Stewart and Jeff Baker, a nice segue into the infield.

Stewart and Baker lead into the infield picture because both have been working out at second base this winter. The 2B job opened up when Kaz Matsui left via free agency for Houston. Both Baker and Stewart would provide nice offense at the midfield position, but handling the job defensively is another question altogether.

Jayson Nix is getting the most lip service from Hurdle as far as the leading candidate to play second. The club also signed veteran Marcus Giles to a minor league deal in the offseason. If Baker or Stewart is at second on Opening day, it’s only because Nix and Giles are either hurt or played their way out of the picture in exhibition games.

The infield corners are anchored by Todd Helton and Garrett Atkins. Helton has seen a drop in his power the last two years, hitting just 15 and 17 HR respectively in 2006-07. But his veteran leadership not to mention his on-base stats (.434 last year, .430 lifetime) played a huge role on the team. Atkins got off to a slow start last season and was hitting just .220 in late May before finishing at .301 with 25 bombs and 111 driven in.

And at shortstop is the amazing Troy Tulowitzki. The rookie struggled in his first month at the plate, but never struggled in the field on his way to defensive records. Oddly enough, it was an unassisted triple play on May 2, just the 13th such defensive gem in MLB history, that coincided with him finding his way at the plate, and Tulo ended up with a .291 batting average, 24 HR and 99 RBI on the year.

Yorvit Torrealba took a circuitous route in returning to the Rocks as the primary catcher, and will be backed up by Chris Iannetta. Right now, best bets to serve as backup infielders are Baker at the corners with middle reserves going to Giles and Clint Barmes who has also been mentioned in trade rumors.

Key Player(s): The starting rotation will be the most critical point on the roster, specifically behind Francis. If both Cook and Jimenez can step up and stay healthy, there’s no reason this team can’t win 85+ games this season and at least be in the thick of the NL West and wild card races.

Futures: BetCris opened their wins futures at 83 with The Greek sitting at 82½ currently. Odds at 5Dimes show the Rockies +335 to win the NL West, +1000 to take their second-straight NL Pennant and +2500 to win their first World Series. My simulations averaged 84.6 wins, a step back. The NL West will be a dogfight this year, and the Rockies can’t count on a late-season streak like the one in ’07.

[bigboydan]

Now despite that great run they had last year down the stretch. Their bullpen has just been brutal for the most part. I continue to see that trend happening until about mid-August range.