Blanton +135 v. Kershaw -135; o/u8.5 -110
Today in Philadelphia, Joe Blanton and the Phils take on Clayton Kershaw and the LA Dodgers for the rubber game of this three game series.
The Phils got dominant pitching in game 2 from their newly acquired Roy Oswalt and after a little trouble in the 8th (as Phils’ fans think “here we go again”), Brad Lidge looked dominant and slammed the door. Today they will need some more of that last start from Blanton if they wish to compete against Kershaw and the Dodgers.
Joe Blanton (8-10, 5.65) has only received two decisions in his last eight starts, but the Phillies have won 2 of his last three outings, and Blanton has earned a quality start in seven of his last ten. Last time out, Blanton took the ball in a must win situation against the hated New York Mets and gave the Phils 7 strong, striking out 4, walking none, and allowing 2 earned on 7 hits. In his last 5, Blanton has only allowed more than 3 earned once and struck out 8 two times. Joe is also much better at home, where his ERA is nearly a run lower and he has a winning record. His nearly 3:1 k:bb ratio certainly keeps him in the game. If he can avoid that big opening inning that he seems to have so much trouble with, he will definitely have an opportunity to win as a dog today. Just like he did against the Mets.
Big UK Joe has been better of late, and absolutely will have to continue that trend at home today versus Kershaw and hope for some help from the Astros, who keep killing the Phils in the last inning against the Braves.
Clayton Kershaw (12-10, 3.19) gets the nod in Philly for the Dodgers who will look to win one of his starts for the first time this month. Kershaw did pitch an 8 inning shut out in win versus the Mets on July 25th, but since then, he has allowed 8 earned in 13 innings and given up 13 hits in those starts, both of which losses for the Dodgers.
To make matters worse, when digging into Kershaw’s numbers, we find his career numbers vs. the Phillies. In four career starts versus the Phils, Kershaw is 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA, allowing 15 earned on 21 hits in 20.1 innings.
Kershaw does have a slightly better ERA on the road than he has on the season, but is .500 in his 10 road starts. He will look to get on the winning side of things today for the first time on this calendar page. If he can avoid the free passes, throw consistent, regular strikes, and keep his pitch count down, he should dominate this decimated Phillies lineup. However, the Phils have been really patient lately, and when they get ahead and get some free base runners, they have been capable of putting up a few crooked numbers.
A couple of guys pitching the opposite of what they’re used to square off today in Citizen’s Bank Park in a 1-1 series split so far.
Atlanta is off traveling today, so the Phils will look to gain a half of a game.
I like the Phils as dogs here at home with Blanton’s new-found consistence and the over should be pretty easy money today.
Good Luck on Thursday everyone, and feel free to post your plays of the day in this thread as well.