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Blue Jays vs. Yankees Play!
First the recap, won easy with the Over in yesterday's Blue Jays/Yankees game with 14 runs scored in the game. Tonight, I'm going right back to the same teams, but I'm not playing the total. Tonight it's about the Yankees. We have Ricky Romero going for Toronto and Dustin Moseley starting for the Yankees. Ricky is 8-7 on the year with a 3.46 ERA. He is 2-1 in his last 3 starts with an impressive 2.08 ERA. The thing is the team's he has faced recently are nothing special. In his last 3 starts he has faced the Orioles, Tigers, and Orioles again. Not exactly playoff caliber teams if ya know what I'm saying. Before his last 3 starts he faced teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals, and Indians. Guess what? He lost all 4 of those starts. In his most recent outing against the Yankees he was clobbered for 7 hits, 8 runs, throwing 77 pitches somehow and only last 2.2 innings. He does not fare well in night starts either, as all of his numbers jump when the sun goes down. He is 5-4 in night starts with a 4.15 ERA compared to a 2.75 ERA during the day. He has given up 8 home runs on the year, but 6 of them have come at night. To make matters worse for the Blue Jays, Romero is not a solid road starter. His ERA is 4.62 on the road, and out of the 60 runs he has given up this year 40 of them have come on the road (that's 66% of his runs).
Yankees counter with Dustin Moseley who is 1-0 on the year with a 3.24 ERA. Not a ton of stats on this guy as he is a reliever by trade. In his one start this year, which came on July 29th, he was impressive. He went 6 innings, giving up only 4 hits and surrendering 1 run. His team beat the Indians 11-4 and he got the win. I expect that same effort tonight from Mr. Moseley. The umpire in today's game is Adrian Johnson. Pretty consistent umpire, home teams are only 8-14 in his starts, but the Yankees have won the last 3 with him behind the plate. Over unders are dead even with each cashing 10 times in his 20 starts. His games average 9.23 runs per game, and he calls a strike only 61% of the time. Home team is 4-1 in Johnsons last 5 Tuesday games behind home plate, and the Home team is 5-2 in Johnsons last 7 games behind home plate vs. Toronto. Blue Jays have seen a lot of Mr. Johnson, he has umped 3 games in the last 4 months involving the Blue Jays. They went 1-2 in those games with their lone win coming against the lowly Mariners.
As I looked into the match up, I found some overwhelming stats that support me backing the Yankees today. Besides yesterday, the Blue Jays do not do well in this spot as an underdog with Romero on the mound. The Blue Jays are 2-8 in Romeros last 10 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Blue Jays are 2-6 in Romeros last 8 road starts, and they are 5-12 in Romeros last 17 starts vs. American League East. Yankees should be happy to see Romero because he's a lefty. Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter, and they are 48-19 in their last 67 home games vs. a left-handed starter (71%). Also, because of yesterday's loss I like this angle. Yankees are 41-16 in their last 57 games following a loss (71%). Make matters worse for anyone that wants to back the Blue Jays today is the fact that the Yankees are 56-26 in their last 82 vs. American League East. I expect the Yankees to break out in a big way today against Romero and give him the same type of drilling he got back in July in New York. Add on the fact that the Yankees are hitting a scorching .324 in their last 10 against left-handed starters and I think we got ourselves a winner. I will not lay the 60 cents on the Yankees but I will happily back them at -1 run at less juice. Worst case scenario is a push in my opinion. I wish all my friends good luck today, let's hope tonight's card brings us a profit. For good measure here a few more angles that support my play.
Blue Jays are 4-13 in their last 17 games as a road underdog.
Blue Jays are 2-7 in their last 9 Tuesday games.
Yankees are 46-20 in their last 66 during game 2 of a series.
Yankees are 21-8 in their last 29 Tuesday games.
New York Yankees -1 (-116)
Risking 232 to Win 200
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Originally Posted by paco
Nice of you to tail
