GL Mate!
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08-01-10 02:47 AM #71
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08-01-10 02:54 AM #72
GL! I often check Accurescore stats, it's also great for the under/over trending.
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08-01-10 03:31 PM #73
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08-01-10 11:38 PM #74
23-10 +9.36x
Originally Posted by VTranX
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08-01-10 11:45 PM #75
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08-01-10 11:52 PM #76
how do u get these? do u pay for the service? or are these just based on the %s on ESPN previews?
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08-02-10 12:14 AM #77
I have accuscore adviser for 30 days and just following one of there trends. Originally Posted by Masu485
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08-02-10 11:02 AM #78
8/2/2010
Los Angeles Dodgers -130
Cincinnati Reds -159
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08-02-10 01:21 PM #79
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08-02-10 02:07 PM #80
Nice thread VTranX, curious if anyone has any history on this trend system? Good luck!!
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08-02-10 03:45 PM #81
good luck am cautously following
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08-03-10 03:09 AM #82
24-11 +9.06 Originally Posted by vtranx
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08-03-10 03:12 AM #83
8-3-2010
Colorado Rockies -127
Texas Rangers -138
Detroit Tigers -113
Baltimore Orioles -115
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08-03-10 08:38 AM #84
Cincy won yesterday 4-0 against the pirates.. Originally Posted by VTranX
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08-03-10 08:42 AM #85
that looks like tigers for game 2, right?? just wanna make it clear Originally Posted by VTranX
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08-03-10 12:27 PM #86
for game 1. Originally Posted by CollegePro
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08-03-10 12:28 PM #87
aright guys, been fun. my subscription is over, bol to everyone.
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08-03-10 05:37 PM #88
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08-04-10 10:50 AM #89
Couldn't we figure out the side value ourselves? Just alittle math.
For example....
Reds are -170 so the Vegas win is 65.6%
Accuscore is 57%
Pirates are +155 so the Vegas win is 34.3%
Accuscore is 43%
How much side value determines a pick though?
SIM WIN % > VEGAS WIN % = SIDE VALUE
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08-05-10 08:00 AM #90
Here is todays.....
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08-05-10 11:21 AM #91
Chaz,
Thanks for posting this, but need to understand what it is saying, how does this fit into the SV trend that VTranX was giving us? If the Accu. % is higher than the Vegas Win it's a bet? I think there is more to it than that?
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08-05-10 11:26 AM #92
What's the difference between Vegas win and Vegas odd %?
and to be honest, accuscore isn't going to give a +175 underdog as a side value pick so there must be something off here.
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08-05-10 12:16 PM #93
I know for sure I have to be missing something here but thats why I posted it to receive help from everyone on getting the system down and maybe somewhat creating our own. Please feel free to correct my math mistakes too. Originally Posted by HayMan
ACCUSCORE % > VEGAS WIN % = SIDE VALUE
Vegas odds.
Minnesota being (+135) is 43%
So for every 135 losses, Minnesota would win 100 times
100/(135+100)
Tampa is (-155) 61%
Every 155 wins, Tampa would lose 100 times.
155/(155+100)
Vegas Win %
61% + 43% = 104% (This is Vegas edge to make money off the bets)
We have to divide each team’s Vegas Odds % by the total of the two teams (104%).
(Tampa) 61% /(61% + 43%) = 59%
(Minn.) 43%/(43% + 61%) = 41%
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08-05-10 01:12 PM #94
I think you need the Sim percent from Accuscore to compare, not sure if that is on their free site?
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08-05-10 01:21 PM #95
Thats the Accu. column. Sorry I should change that to say "SIM %" Originally Posted by HayMan
http://www.thespread.com/accuscore/mlb-forecasts.html
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08-05-10 01:50 PM #96
Looks like you have everything correct, but there must be some additional filters to apply. VTranX was only posting a couple of plays a day, maybe he can help with the filters?
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08-05-10 01:55 PM #97
Looking back on the beginning of the thread he mentions 4 star picks with a better than 60% chance of winning. That would mean today's picks would be: COL, LAA, AZ, LAD. Let's see what happens.
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08-05-10 03:13 PM #98
On them! Originally Posted by HayMan
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08-05-10 04:55 PM #99
shouldn't we be playing not strictly the games with highest winning %, say for instance a team has a 60% win chance but is -200, thats a -ev bet. But a team has a 40% win chance but is +200, that would be the play to make. Judging by the chart above, todays +EV plays are:
CWS
ARI
COL
LAA
etc
am I missing anything here?
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08-05-10 05:17 PM #100
As Vtranx said:
The system is pretty simple. Pick there "Side Value" 4 star selections which has an accusscore grading of 60% or higher chance of team winning.
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08-05-10 05:29 PM #101
That's not accuscores "system" but we can always keep track of it.
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08-06-10 07:42 AM #102
Some simple filters
7% diff (vegas»accu)
Dogs 50 or better +100 or higher
Favs 60 or higher Under -160
Min 9% +135 W
Col 17% -155 L
Cws 8% +117 W
Az 9% -135 W
Tex 7% 100 W
4-1 +2.97
chaz could you post the side value chart again. Thanks.
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08-06-10 08:25 AM #103
Ouch! 1-3 Originally Posted by HayMan
Not how we wanted to start, but lets go on for alittle bit before we throw in the towel. No picks are guaranteed
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08-06-10 08:40 AM #104
Are these yours or accuscores filters? The chart is on post #90 Originally Posted by empty
Last edited by CHAZ; 08-06-10 at 09:00 AM.
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08-06-10 09:02 AM #105
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