New York will hand the ball to its big ace C.C. Sabathia at home on Friday when the Yankees begin a crucial weekend series against Evan Longoria and the Tampa Bay Rays.
The New York Yankees can set the tone for the second half of the baseball season when they host the Tampa Bay Rays in a three-game series beginning on Friday night at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees (56-32 SU, +7.71 units) and Rays (54-34 SU, +3.70 units) – otherwise known as the two best teams in baseball – are also among the most profitable on the MLB betting odds board.
With due respect to what the upstart Atlanta Braves and red-hot Chicago White Sox are doing right now, there’s no clubs that match up with New York or Tampa Bay at the moment.
In fact, if there’s any team in the same discussion as the Yanks and Rays it’s the injury-ravaged Boston Red Sox, who were three games behind Tampa Bay and five games behind New York at the All-Star break. If and when the Red Sox get healthy, we’ll have a doozy of a three-horse race on our hands.
What’s impressive about the Yankees and Rays is they’ve both stayed well in the black despite seeing increasingly oppressive odds from sports books.
New York is fifth overall on the MLB moneylist, while Tampa Bay is eighth. The Rays are also baseball’s best road wager (28-14 SU, +12.87 units), and the Bronx Bombers are the third most profitable club against the run line (49-39, +13.07 units).
The added kicker is both teams were playing their best baseball before the break. Tampa Bay has cashed 10 of its last 12 against the money line, while New York has won eight of nine and nine of 11.
When teams of this caliber hit the diamond, any outcome is in play. I wouldn’t blink an eye if the Rays rolled into New York and swept the Yankees this weekend. After all, that’s exactly what Tampa Bay did in the teams’ two-game set in the Bronx in May.
Still, after looking at some recent trends as well as the pitching matchups, there’s little value in the Rays as underdogs this weekend.
James Shields (7-9, 4.87 ERA) takes the ball for Joe Madden’s crew for Friday night’s series opener (7:05 p.m. ET), and that alone is enough to fade Tampa Bay.
Look, I know the Rays at +165 against the money line are enticing, but you’d be a fool to trust your money with Shields. Tampa Bay has won only two of Shields’ last 10 starts.
Besides, C.C. Sabathia (12-3, 3.09 ERA) opens up the second half for New York (-185 on Friday). Sabathia is unbeaten with a 2.37 ERA at Yankee Stadium this season, while the Yanks have cashed in his last eight outings.
Making matters worse are the Rays’ difficulties against left-handed pitching, something that will also come into play when Andy Pettitte (11-2, 2.70 ERA) toes the rubber in Sunday’s series finale (1:05 p.m. ET).
Tampa Bay is hitting only .243 against lefties this season, including .239 away from Tropicana Field. To pile on, New York is batting .289 against right-handers at home this season, while its starters have put up a collective 1.95 ERA over the last 10 games.
At first glance, Saturday’s nationally televised matchup (4:10 p.m. ET, FOX) looks like the best spot to lay down on the Rays, but I’d back the Yankees once again. Even if the struggling A.J. Burnett (7-7, 4.75 ERA) is taking the hill.
Thing is, Saturday is when New York will be laying the least amount of chalk this weekend. Yes, the Yankees are only 1-6 against the money line in Burnett’s last seven starts, but this is a good spot for the hard-throwing righty.
Burnett has a 2.96 ERA at home this season, as well as a 2.56 ERA in day games. This is about the only scenario in which he pitches well.
Tampa Bay turns to Jeff Niemann (7-2, 2.77 ERA) on Saturday, while on Sunday, All-Star Game starter David Price (12-4, 2.42 ERA) matches up with Pettitte.
Like Burnett, Pettitte loves the sunshine. Pettitte has a 2.14 ERA in nine starts during the day, during which New York is 8-1.
Bettors playing totals should lean towards the ‘over’ this weekend. The ‘over’ is 5-0 in the teams’ five meetings this season, while the Rays are 9-4 O/U (10-3 SU) in their last 13 games.
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MLB Betting: Yankees, Rays Meet in the Bronx
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