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CUBS LOCK with TED LILLY
Well last night made 3 winners in a row and 8 out of the last 9, and tonight we will add another one to the win column.
Tonight the Cubs are a lock as a +140 Dog. Dont let the price on this game scare you away as the wrong team is favored here. Anyone laying that 155 to 160 chalk will be asking themselves why they did it after the game.
Tonight the Cubs start Ted Lilly. Lilly is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. This guy really gets no hype at all, but just continues to pitch great baseball. While he may come in with just a 3-7 record, all his other numbers are great, and we all no a pitchers win loss record is more about what kind of support he gets.
Lilly comes in with a 3.76 ERA. He has 14 starts for a total of 94 innings pitched, that comes out to nearly 7 innings per start. That will be crushle as I dont want the Cubs bullpen being used too much tonight. In those 94 innings, he has also only allowed 81 hits which is well below the 1 hit per inning mark.
Lilly has given up 42 runs ( only 39 earned though ), 15 home runs, 22 walks, and recorded 64 walks. So you can pretty much see that when Lilly keeps the ball in the park the other team doesnt score. He has given up 15 Home Runs which pretty much account for all of the 42 runs he has allowed ( 36).
On the other side of the ball, the Dodgers will start Chad Billingsley. His numbers are quite a bit worse than Lilly's in just about every category. Billingsley has a 4.06 ERA, 15 starts for a total of 88.2 Innings. That is less than 6 innings per start. He has given up 92 hits, which is over the 1 hit per inning mark. He has allowed more runs than Lilly in fewer innings. He has also walked 30 batters which is substantially more than Lilly has in more innings.
Lilly ---3.76 ERA --14 Starts -- 94 IP -- 81 Hits -- 42 Runs -- 15 HR --22 Walks
Billingsley- 4.06 ERA- 15 Sta--88 IP ---92 Hits ----44 Runs --7 HR ---30 Walks
Now clearly we can see that the only problem that Lilly has had this year is that he gives up some Home Runs. But to be honest, he is pitching in a park that yields more Home Runs than Coors Field. Perhaps Wrigely is the most hitter friendly park ever. On the other hand, Billingsley pitches in Dodger Stadium which is conversley one of the most pitcher friendly parks. Yet, Lilly still has a better ERA.
Lilly is giving his team nearly 7 innings per start, and I admit that will be important as I dont totally trust this Cubs pen. They do have 2 or 3 good realiable relievers though and I think thats all we will see tonight as Lilly should make it through 6 innings minimum.
I also think with the game being in Dodger Stadium tonight that Lilly wont be giving up any or many Home Runs and when he doesnt give up Home Runs he doesnt give up runs at all. A lot of those Home Runs that he has given up at Wrigley will be long fly ball outs tonight.
Lilly will hold this Dodger offense in check and I think the Cubs will have a decent night tonight hitting against Billingsley, a pitcher who is yielding a lot of walks and giving up more than 1 hit per inning.
Tonights Lock is the CUBS as a +140 Dog.
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Originally Posted by chrisharvard01
