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BREWERS LOCK Thread
The Lock for Today is the Milwaukee Brewers.
I have been riding the Mariners through their recent win streak and have posted all about my Mariner bets on this board, but today the tide has turned and the Milwaukee Brewers are a **** LOCK ****
The Brewers start Dave Bush today. Now Bush's numbers are nothing that great but we know that even bad pitchers typically sail against this weak Mariners offense. Bush comes into this game with a 2 wins and 5 losses but a decent 4.67 ERA. He has 13 starts and 1 relief appearance for just a total of 70 innings.
On the other side of the ball, The Mariners start Ryan Rowland Smith. Smith has stunk it up pretty much all year long with the exception of his last start where he pitched brilliantly and brought his ERA under 6 for the first time since the beginning of the season. He comes into this game with a 1-6 record and a 5.98 ERA.
In his 12 starts and 3 relief appearances Smith has managed just a total of 61 innings. He has given up 79 hits in those 61 innings, coming out to an average of 1.3 hits per innings which is one of the highest hits per innings ratios in baseball. He has also allowed 13 home runs which is 1 home run every 4 1/2 innings. Ouch.
I think we will see a lot of the bullpens in this game as both these starters are generally out of the game by the 5th inning if not before. I think that bodes well for the Brewers as the Mariners have a very suspicious bullpen. The Mariner bullpen saw 4 innings of action last night, while the Brewer bullpen got the night off as starter Gallardo threw a 9 inning complete game shutout.
While the Brewers offense lacks any big name superstars, it is packed with consistency. The Brewers entire lineup is batting .260 or better and are all capable of jumping on a 6.00 ERA pitcher like Rowland Smith. This team also brings some long ball potential with Weeks, Fielder, and Braun. Rowland Smith has shown very susceptible to giving up the long ball and this offense is just the type to take advantage of that. I expect at least 2 home runs from the Brewers today, and that in itself will probably be enough considering this mariner offense often doesn't even score 2 runs.
All the stats certainly point to the Brewers in this game and I think the game will go easily to the Brewers. Rowland Smith has been jacked up every time out except last time and while Dave Bush's win loss record doesn't look impressive, his ERA and other numbers shows that he is a decent pitcher. We all know this Mariner offense is weak and even during their 6 game win streak, the Mariner offense scored 2 runs or less in 4 of the wins.
I think Bush will hold the Mariners offense down just as most every pitcher they have faced this year has and I certainly think Rowland Smith will get hit hard and often today. Once he is out of the game in the 4th or 5th inning, the Brewers will dominate the Mariners weak bullpen.
The Lock for today is the Brewers on the ML at -155
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Originally Posted by Whippit
