The Pirates start Paul Maholm tonight and its a big mistake that he is a +170 dog going against the Rangers and Nippert tonight. The Pirates will win this game and cash the dog ticket.
Maholm has been the best and most consistent starter for the Pirates. he pitches left handed and that will give the Rangers a lot of trouble tonight. Maholm has 14 starts this year for a total of 88 innings. This guy gives a strong 6 1/2 every time out. Very rarely is he out of the game before the 6th, and he certainly wont be tonight as he will roll this Ranger lineup the first time through.
Maholm may only have a 4-5 record due to the fact that he often doesnt get a lot of run support. Just the same his ERA is strong at 3.77, and he rarely gives up a home run having allowed only 7 so far this year in 88 innings. So he is only giving up 1 Homer per 12 1/2 innings pitched, which places him as one of the best.
Dustin Nippert on the other hand is starting for the Rangers, and he just hasnt thrown the ball very well this year at all. He has a 5.01 ERA and in his 32 innings pitched he has allowed a total of 38 hits. So he is allowing about 1.2 hits per inning. Ouch. Nippert has also given up 23 walks in those 38 innings which is more than Maholm has allowed in 88 innings.
Nippert is not a starter. This guy was coming out of the bullpen and still has a terrible ERA. So I dont understand why you switch a bad reliever into a starter but whatever. Still I dont see him going more than 4 innings tops as this is only his second start so I dont think they will be letting him go 100 pitches so soon.
The most I can see out of Nippert here is 4 innings so we are going to see that ranger bullpen in this game early and I know the Pirates are going to be able to do some damage there. The Ranger bullpen did work 3 innings last night and 5 innings their previous game so I think it has been overworked and today is the day that it gets hit hard.
Clearly the Rangers have the better bats in this game, but left hander Maholm is going to neutralize them. Also, the Pirates bats are better than most realize. They start off with Tabata, Walker, McCutheon, and Jones which is actually a pretty strong first 4. They also have Doumit, Milledge, and Crosby at the bottom.
The Pirates are going to draw some walks today and get hits and they will score a pretty decent number of runs today. Maholm as well will hold the Rangers offense in check and its totally crazy that the Pirates are + 170 in this game. This game should be a slight favorite to the Pirates here.
I know a lot of people are going to just look at this game and jump on the Rangers because the Rangers have the better team and a better record. However we all know that baseball is not about records or teams its about who is pitching.
This pitching matchup just does not justify laying any big price on the Rangers. the Pirates will win this game, dont need the 1 1/2 runs because this game goes to the Pirates.
Lock *** PIRATES + 170 *****