Florida Marlins -160

Marlins, winners of 3 of 4, are facing off against the Rangers, winners of 5 of 6 games.

CJ Wilson is coming off a game against Seattle where he went 7 innings, gave up 4 hits, and 2 ER's. He did have 3 BB's in the game to only 4 K's. This was against a weak hitting Seattle squad. Prior to that he faced Rays and Twinkies, giving up 8 ER's, on 10 hits, in 11 innings of work, with 6 BB's to only 8 KK's. (His K's to BB's ratio is very concerning)

Josh Johnson has been on fire. In his last 3 games he went 22 innings, giving up 17 hits and only 1 ER! In that period he only had 5 BB's to 19 K's.

On the season Wilson has an ERA of 3.52 and WHIP of 1.23. Johnson has an ERA of 1.91 and WHIP of 1.024. Very solid numbers for both.

Let's dig in deeper using Sabermetrics (GA would be proud!). Johnson's FIP is 2.63 (4th best in the league) and xFIP of 3.28 (good for 8th best in the league). Wilson's FIP is 3.78 with an xFIP of 4.43! Way over Johnson's. Both pitchers have a BABIP of .27, indicating that both have been slightly lucky so far and will regress to the mean a bit. Wilson's FIP and xFIP #'s are telling signs that regression to HIS mean, is going to be a lot more bumpier than Johnson's. With the Marlins hitting the ball well lately, I expect Wilson's start to resemble the ones against Tampa/Minny and not the one against Seattle.

Good luck!