[Puda]

FCK. had a 5 team parlay today.. and the CARDS fck it dam.

NY
Cubs
NYM
Brewers
Cards

[valgan]

lets get it

[phillybadboy]

I will take LOS late game...they are a very good team at home

good call

[phillybadboy]

at least pimike is better than Tennisbabe

[Puda]

Wed Plays:

Rays
NYM
NYY
Red Sox's

[blackf1re]

Guys stop throwing your money away. To quote myself from another thread: "There is no such thing as systems in sports betting. You analyse a game, decide with of the two lines has value and place your bet accordingly. Anyone who ignores that and goes with his system regardless of the line should be auto-faded." And flaming him after the play lost doesn't help either. You have only yourselves to blame if you follow system plays.

There's a sticky in the Handicapper Think Tank that is quite clear as well:

A system is any type of betting that doesn't care what the spread or money line is. If you follow this, you will lose. Please don't clutter up the Think Tank with losing systems.

[ji03]

Like the plays puda

[Fred Showpan]

what does double system mean?

[brumbies]

Guys stop throwing your money away. To quote myself from another thread: "There is no such thing as systems in sports betting. You analyse a game, decide with of the two lines has value and place your bet accordingly. Anyone who ignores that and goes with his system regardless of the line should be auto-faded." And flaming him after the play lost doesn't help either. You have only yourselves to blame if you follow system plays. There's a sticky in the Handicapper Think Tank that is quite clear as well:

Excellent stuff!

[Grind-It-Out]

Guys stop throwing your money away. To quote myself from another thread: "There is no such thing as systems in sports betting. You analyse a game, decide with of the two lines has value and place your bet accordingly. Anyone who ignores that and goes with his system regardless of the line should be auto-faded." And flaming him after the play lost doesn't help either. You have only yourselves to blame if you follow system plays.

There's a sticky in the Handicapper Think Tank that is quite clear as well:

But who's to say that systems can't take the moneyline into account?

[doubledime]

Wed Plays:

Rays
NYM
NYY
Red Sox's

Puda, Just asking, why are your plays in this thread? You could start your own thread and call it "Puda's Picks" Like I said ..... just asking BOL anyway

[HoulihansTX]

Orioles are Triple A material.

[blackf1re]

But who's to say that systems can't take the moneyline into account?

My understanding of systems is that you compile a bunch of statistics and if stat 1, 4 and 7 are true and stat 9 is between 0.3 and 0.6 then it's a play. Systems by their very nature ignore probabilty and value. There's only 0 or 1. Play or no play. Only when the line is really low like -200 you read stuff like 'the juice is too high'. Now of course that is rubbish again. There is only positive expected value and negative expected value and even a -400 line can be profitable.

Yesterday's play Orioles +1.5 was available from 2.00 to 2.30 (Oddsportal.com). And these are only the latest odds from just before the start of the game. So chances are the fluctuation was even bigger over the course of the day.
The true probability of that play might have been something like 45% (2.22 decimal odds) so only the 2.25 & 2.30 offers available would have been valuebets. Of course there's no way of knowing the exact percentage. But by not posting the line you get the impression that it just doesn't matter and you should bet because it's a winner according to some system. And to be honest, that's what I read from pimike's responses in his threads. But there's no way in hell every bet of these was +EV as that would mean every single bookmaker had made a huge mistake in pricing up the game and NOBODY has that big of an edge. Quite the opposite. Edges are so small that the difference between 2.15 and 2.25 is HUGE and could mean that one of them makes you rich and the other one broke in the long run.

[Hawk007]

Puda = Attention Whore

[CHAZ]

Keep on doing what you're doing Pimike. You get a play or two wrong and everyone has something to say or they wanna discuss there plays in your thread.

You've proven yourself already.

[cro]

Keep on doing what you're doing Pimike. You get a play or two wrong and everyone has something to say or they wanna discuss there plays in your thread.

You've proven yourself already.

[Dexter]

Guys stop throwing your money away. To quote myself from another thread: "There is no such thing as systems in sports betting. You analyse a game, decide with of the two lines has value and place your bet accordingly. Anyone who ignores that and goes with his system regardless of the line should be auto-faded." And flaming him after the play lost doesn't help either. You have only yourselves to blame if you follow system plays.

There's a sticky in the Handicapper Think Tank that is quite clear as well:

not true - the systems i create do factor the line in some fashion. esp in football. baseball i factor the line in my system when determining if it will be a RL or ML play.

[Dexter]

But who's to say that systems can't take the moneyline into account?

exactly

[mkrb77]

not true - the systems i create do factor the line in some fashion. esp in football. baseball i factor the line in my system when determining if it will be a RL or ML play.

No one cares what YOU factor in. This is NOT your thread. Go away.

[phillybadboy]

No one cares what YOU factor in. This is NOT your thread. Go away.

[Hawk007]

Dexter = Attention Whore

[lyon804]

My understanding of systems is that you compile a bunch of statistics and if stat 1, 4 and 7 are true and stat 9 is between 0.3 and 0.6 then it's a play. Systems by their very nature ignore probabilty and value. There's only 0 or 1. Play or no play. Only when the line is really low like -200 you read stuff like 'the juice is too high'. Now of course that is rubbish again. There is only positive expected value and negative expected value and even a -400 line can be profitable.

Yesterday's play Orioles +1.5 was available from 2.00 to 2.30 (Oddsportal.com). And these are only the latest odds from just before the start of the game. So chances are the fluctuation was even bigger over the course of the day.
The true probability of that play might have been something like 45% (2.22 decimal odds) so only the 2.25 & 2.30 offers available would have been valuebets. Of course there's no way of knowing the exact percentage. But by not posting the line you get the impression that it just doesn't matter and you should bet because it's a winner according to some system. And to be honest, that's what I read from pimike's responses in his threads. But there's no way in hell every bet of these was +EV as that would mean every single bookmaker had made a huge mistake in pricing up the game and NOBODY has that big of an edge. Quite the opposite. Edges are so small that the difference between 2.15 and 2.25 is HUGE and could mean that one of them makes you rich and the other one broke in the long run.

Post of the month. One of the most informative post I have ever read. Very well put together.

[Dexter]

No one cares what YOU factor in. This is NOT your thread. Go away.

Dexter = Attention Whore

not nice gentleman