Plays are in, write-ups are done. If anything sounds dumb/stupid, it's late and I have to be up early. I probably won't get to writeup plays for Wednesday, as I'll be out of town. Hopefully I'll be able to post them. Anyways,
to a profitable first day, and season!
Season Record 0-0-0 (+0 Units)
June 1, 2010
Brewers (Davis) @ Marlins (Nolasco)
I have this capped right at the total of 9.5 runs, so no play on the total. I have the brewers scoring just over 5 runs though, while the Marlins just over 4, for a 1 run advantage in which I play games around PK giving me a solid play on the Brewers here. In all I feel that this line is a bit inflated and there is HUGE value on the Brew Crew. Doug Davis isn’t Ubaldo, but I feel he can hold the Marlins to 3-4 runs and with Ricky throwing for the marlins that should be enough, especially at +
odds. Ricky pitched 2 innings against Milwaukee in 2006 and gave up 5 ER. Not too much to be read into there though… I just feel that Ricky should NOT be a -160 favorite… Value on Brew Crew!
Play: Milwaukee Brewers +157 (1 to win 1.57)
Mets (Pelfrey) @ Padres (Leblanc)
I show this being a low scoring affair with 6.29 runs scored, and the Padres getting just under 4 of them (3.7). I show the Mets only getting 2.6 or so off the Padres and think Leblanc gets things back on track today, especially as a home dog.
Play: San Diego Padres +108 (1 to win 1.08)
Diamondbacks (Haren) @ Dodgers (Ely)
Ely has been quite impressive this year and that D-Back pen sucks. Haren has been average at best, and in all I feel the Dodgers at home should be closer to -140 here. I show them scoring 5.7 runs while the diamondbacks only getting 3.5 putting my total closer to 9. I don’t like a total play though with two decent pitchers going, and Haren likely to bounce back and put together a decent outing soon… Oh, and Ethier is BACKKKK and he owns Haren for the most part.
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -124 (1.24 to win 1)
Rockies (Hammel) @ Giants (Zito)
I have the Giants at 5.38 runs scored while the Rockies struggling to get 3. In all I feel this will be a low scoring affair, with the Rockies turning to their bull pen by the 6th inning. I think the Giants will get 3-4 runs early and Zito will throw well enough to get the Win a decent percent of the time, definitely enough to make -131 profitable.
Play: San Francisco Giants -131 (1.31 to win 1)
Angels (Pineiro) @ Royals (Bannister)
I have the Royals scoring 7 runs in this game. Now this is slightly a result of Pineiro’s terrible start on the road, and he’s due to regress… however I also feel that he should NEVER be favored here… Bannister has been solid enough for his team to win in his appearances this year, something that I can’t say for Pineiro. This is a spot that the books are creating value on KC because of the perception that the Angels are way better… this year, that’s not the case though and I see through it. Pineiro’s going to have to prove that he CAN bounce back, on the road, before I think of laying off or playing that side…
Play: Kansas City Royals -101 (1.01 to win 1)
Angels (Pineiro) @ Royals (Bannister)
As I said, I have the Royals scoring 7 runs in the game. If that’s even close to true, the Over will hit. Bannister will give up 2-3 runs, at least, and the bullpen is good for another 1 or 2. Both bullpens suck, in the event that both starting pitchers show up, and in all honesty I think this total will be 9.5 or even 10 by game time. I’m laying a hefty price on the juice tonight, -125, which is why I haven’t locked it in as a Firm Fiasco LOCK. It’s just a one unit play, but one that I feel great about. This is my strongest play today, even though it’s weighted the same as the others.
Play: Angels @ Royals Over 9 -125 (1.25 to win 1) **PUSH**
Rangers (Harden) @ White Sox (Buehrle)
I don’t think Buehrle has been too bad this year, and a relatively cheap price of -125 for the staff Ace seems reasonable against a slumping rangers club. Texas without Cruz is a far less potent offense, especially on the road. Buehrle has been solid against Texas in the past, though not recent, we must remember he CAN dominate any game he’s in. Harden pitched against Peavy earlier this year, and gave up 3 earned in 6 innings pitched, getting a 6-5 victory at home. (at home being the key) Until the Rangers can prove that they can win on the road, I will gladly take an ace like Buehrle against them. All in all I have this game at 5 runs for the White Sox and 4 for Texas, but with those 4 imaginary predictive runs comes the chance of a Buehrle gem
Play: Chicago White Sox -124 (1.24 to win 1)
Twins (Blackburn) @ Mariners (Vargas)
The Twins have been solid recently, and the Mariners have been, well… the Mariners… Blackburn has struggled on the road this year and Vargas has been stellar at home. Blackburn is coming off of 5 quality starts, while Vargas has been pretty much lights out all year, only giving up more than 3 ER on 1 occasion (his first start, at Texas, that team that has an AMAZING offense at home…) I have to think that my numbers are pretty solid in showing Minnesota will struggle to get 3 runs, and Seattle has an excellent chance of putting up 4 runs, as I have them at 4.8 runs. In all, I feel there is a lot of value on the Mariners tonight.
Play: Seattle Mariners -108 (1.08 to win 1)