1. #1
    Wilforth
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    Staying ahead of the books (SAB) - Friday

    Astros/Reds
    Rodriquez (2-6, 4.33 ERA) opposes LeCure (no record).
    The Astros will have the pleasure of facing a Triple A pitcher with an ERA of 2.55 in the minors. When "Major" bats face a "Minor" pitcher, you'd expect some bombardment. Add that to the Red's offensive form and you have an "easy" Over! Eh? No wonder 92% of early action is on the Over. But before you make your Over bet, you may wish to note that Rodriquez does pitch excellently against the Reds with an ERA of only 1.83. LeCure may also be able to "cure" the Astro bats given that the Astros are no offensive juggernauts.

    Nationals/Padres
    Lannan (1-2, 5.55 ERA) opposes Richard (4-2, 2.73 ERA).
    The ERA of the SPs add up to 8.28. With the total set at 6.5, the Over is the play then. Isn't it. To help the Over, 3 of Lannan's L4 starts vs. Padres have gone over 6.5. BTW, 8 of the National's L10 games have eclipsed this "low" total. It's no wonder then that 76% of early action is on the OVER. But will this game go Over 6.5? Time will tell.

    Phillies/Marlins
    Kendrick (2-2, 5.66 ERA) opposes Volstad (3-5, 4.31 ERA)
    It is a well known fact that the Phillies' offense is now colder than ice. Shutting out the Phillies is about the easiest thing in the world nowadays. They've been shut out in 4 of their L5 games! So if that trend continues tonight, the Marlins may not need more than 1 run to win this game. Even if the Phillies weren't in a funk, the Marlins will still be an "easy" play here because:
    1) Marlins are 9-3 in the L12 meetings
    2) Phillies are 1-7 in Kendrick's L8 road starts.

    But will the Marlins win this game?

    Indians/Yankees
    Carmona (4-2, 3.45 ERA) opposes the illustrious Hughes (5-1, 2.72 ERA).
    No need to even to talk about this game. The Yankees will simply roll over the pathetic Indians. One way to avoid the heavy juice on the Yankees ML (-245) will be to play Yankees RL (-115). Better still, you don't have to wait until the end of the game to win your bet. Just pound Yankees -0.5 FF (-155) and cash your bet after only 5 innings. Isn't that smart?


    SAB picks:
    Astros/Reds UNDER 8.5 (+105)
    Nationals/Giants UNDER 6.5 (+105)
    Phillies +110
    Indians FF +205

    For those of you who don't yet know this: Indians are 3-1 in Carmona's L4 starts vs. Yankees. But I'd recommend playing the Indians in the FF.

  2. #2
    Wilforth
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    Need to add SAB record.
    YTD: 3-1 +2.85

  3. #3
    lyon804
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    Good points Wilforth... Marlins bullpen is liable to cure some of the Phillies scoring woes. I watched there middle relief against Atlanta and it was pretty bad. Most of those guys struggle to throw strikes.

  4. #4
    WiseGrumpy
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    First of all god job yesterday your plays were in my all league bets as well ...
    Anyway, I do like the Phillies play, even though the play I'm eying on right now are the Mets.

  5. #5
    Wilforth
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    Quote Originally Posted by WiseGrumpy View Post
    First of all god job yesterday your plays were in my all league bets as well ...
    Anyway, I do like the Phillies play, even though the play I'm eying on right now are the Mets.
    TBH, Mets were in my considerations but you never know how much run support Santana will get.

  6. #6
    HoulihansTX
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    Astros/Reds UNDER 8.5 (+105)

    All over it

  7. #7
    teecee
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    I like the thread, Wilforth. G/l tonight, bud.

  8. #8
    No coincidences
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    Enjoy these, Wilforth, though I just can't bring myself to play an under with road Wandy.

  9. #9
    Wilforth
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Enjoy these, Wilforth, though I just can't bring myself to play an under with road Wandy.
    I understand your point about Wandy but certain pitchers tend to have success in specific spots. Bud Norris is an example. He may pitch shit everywhere but he always pitches well against the Cardinals. Like Norris is to the Cardinals, so shall Wandy be to the Reds.

  10. #10
    blueghost
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    joining in lets getem

  11. #11
    Wilforth
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    Let me elaborate a bit on the Indians FF pick with some notes:

    1) Indians are 3-1 in Carmona's L4 starts vs. Yankees
    2) Indians are a perfect 2-0 in Carmona's L2 road starts vs. Yankees
    3) Carmona is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in his L4 road starts.

  12. #12
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wilforth View Post
    I understand your point about Wandy but certain pitchers tend to have success in specific spots. Bud Norris is an example. He may pitch shit everywhere but he always pitches well against the Cardinals. Like Norris is to the Cardinals, so shall Wandy be to the Reds.
    What's Wandy's career record at GAB?

  13. #13
    Wilforth
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    What's Wandy's career record at GAB?
    No idea, but I can provide only these 2:

    05/25/09: allowed 6 runs in 4 innings
    09/14/09: pitched a 6-inning shut-out

    Fact: he has given up 2 runs in the last 12 innings he pitched against the Reds.

  14. #14
    No coincidences
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    Found it. Stats back you up here, Wilforth. Wandy's given up only 7 earned runs in his last 5 starts @CIN, which spans nearly 31 innings.


  15. #15
    Wilforth
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Found it. Stats back you up here, Wilforth. Wandy's given up only 7 earned runs in his last 5 starts @CIN, which spans nearly 31 innings.



  16. #16
    Panekkkk
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    Nice writeups Wil!

    Not sure why you're giving so much love to Carmona.

    His last two starts against the Yanks he gave up 4 earned runs in each (both in 2009). He gave up 7 runs (4 earned) in his last start in NY. In fact, he's given up 3 or more runs in his last 4 starts. Unless you think the Indians are going to score more than 4 runs off of Hughes, then they have almost no chance in this game.

    You've also completely forgotten that Cleveland is an entirely different team from the team in the historic starts that you listed:

    - No Sizemore
    - No Cabrera
    - No DeRosa
    - No Martinez / Shoppach

    Go back through all of Carmona's starts and count the # of runs/rbis produced by the guys I just listed. The Indians current lineup is a bunch of minor leaguers. After facing major league's best, and fairing poorly, the Yanks will come home to throttle the Indians. Yanks will take at least 3 games of this 4-game series.

    The only guy with #'s vs. Hughes is Peralta. The rest of Cleveland's pathetic lineup has barely seen the guy pitch. Choo is the ONLY offensive threat the Indians have and he's hitless in 3 PA's against Hughes.
    Last edited by Panekkkk; 05-28-10 at 01:09 PM.

  17. #17
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wilforth View Post
    So now the question is, do you take Houston as a road 'dog? And if you're on the under, what if this kid blows up and can't handle the pressure of being in the bigs?

  18. #18
    tboy2464
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    hey wilforth,
    just wondering what does FF mean? You say yankees RL is good in the description of the game, then you pick indians FF in your picks in blue.
    Thanks for the clarification

  19. #19
    Patrickz0rs
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoulihansTX View Post
    Astros/Reds UNDER 8.5 (+105)

    All over it

  20. #20
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrickz0rs View Post
    Yeah, a guy making a losing pick is funny.


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