Tommorow morning these two teams go at 1135 EST and I think this opening number on the Pittsburgh/Cincinati game is hugely +EV to the Pirates.

The Pirates start Zach Duke tommorow. His numbers are certainly down this year but they are still decent and if you look at his career stats you see the true pitcher. Zach Duke is actually a very good starting pitcher who never gets any hype because of the team that he has spent his entire career with.

Duke comes in with a career ERA of 4.34 ( Not bad ), he has 137 career starts with 846 innings pitched. That comes out to almost 6 2/3 average innings pitched per start. I think he is left in a little longer than most teams would, which in turn increases his ERA.

Duke has given up right at 1 hit per inning pitched, but rarely walks anyone. He is a much better pitcher than most people realize. Duke was on the All star team last year, he had the 7th best ERA in the NL in 2006, the 5th best in 2008, and the 8th best last year.

The Reds start Homer Bailey who has a 7.24 ERA this year, and has been hit pretty hard each time out. Bailey has started 6 times this year, managing only 32 innings while giving up 42 hits ( a ratio of about 1.35 hits per inning ). Bailey has given up 27 runs in those 32 innings.

To me, the Reds lineup is exactly waht Zach Duke has been needing this year. He does have a 5.+ ERA this season, but his starts have come against some of the better lineups in the National League. I believe he will easily shut down this Reds offense.

The Reds lineup is Heisey BA .111, Phillips .248, Votto .299, Rolen .272, Bruce .252, Gomes .264. The Reds have noone batting .300 and only 2 guys batting .275+. I think Duke has a field day with this lineup.

The Pirates on the other hand have their troubles with offense as well. But they are facing a much lesser pitcher in Homer Bailey and they do have the ability to score against anyone at the top of the lineup. LaRouche is batting .300 ans McCutchen .320 and they both bring power to the lineup as well. I also think Doumit, Milledge, Young, and Cedeno will give Bailey trouble at the bottom of the lineup.

The Pirates are a small favorite on the game line, but then blossom up to a huge +185 on the run line. I guess the huge disparity is due to the small total. The total is 8 1/2 which would suggest a decent possibility of a 1 run game. I dont see it happening and I think the play here is the Pirates minus the run and a half taking the +185 payout.

I see the Pirates winning this game and by more than a couple runs. Here is a play that is easily 55% probably closer to 65% likliehood of winning, and it pays +185 so very +EV. I just dont see Bailey shutting down the Pirates offense for long and I really dont see the Reds getting more than 3 runs tops of Duke. I doubt they even get 3 but that wont be enough as the Pirates will get 5 pretty easily off Bailey.


Good Luck