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Livian Hernandez + 140
This is a great price on a pitcher that has thrown the ball very well this year.
I have to love the Nationals +140 tonight against the Cubs as the Nationals have been playing better ball so far this year than any year in their History. Even though the Cubs do come in on a 4 game winning streak, this is a very suspect offense IMO. I believe Hernandez will handcuff this offense.
Hernandez so far this season has started 3 games and pitched 24 innings. That is an average of 8 innings per start, quite amazing. He also has managed an ERA of 0.75, giving up only 2 Earned Runs in those 3 starts.
The Cubs start Tom Gorzellany tonight. He is 0-2 in his 3 starts and more importantly has only thrown 15 innings in those 3 starts for an average of 5 innings per start. So we could probably expect to see a lot of the Cubs bullpen tonight after the Nationals knock Gorzellany out. He has also given up 7 Runs in 15 innings compared to 2 runs in 24 innings for Hernandez.
Now I know a lot of people dont like to bet on the Nationals because this team has been very bad pretty much every year, but this is a different Nationals team at least so far this season. They do have some power in the lineup with ex-Red Adam Dunn. The Nationals also have some good batting averages this year.
Lead Off Hitter Morgan is hitting .295 so far this year, and if he gets on the Nationals score him 40% of the time. Catcher Guzman batting thrid hitting almsot .300 as well. Then comes Adam Dunn in the clean up spot. He is not hitting for a great average but he is always capable of going deep or for the extra base hit as he did last night with a double.
Then in the 5th spot comes Willingham hitting .317 and with 12 RBI already this year. He is on pace for over 100 RBI hitting in the 5th spot which is relatively unheard of. Admittedly the bottom 4 hitting 6 through 9 are not too great as is thecase with most teams.
However when I look at the Cubs offense, there really isnt anything that strikes fear in me. I believe this is a very weak offense and the Cubs have only managed to play close to .500 ball with great starting pitching.
The Cubs only managed 3 runs off of Lannan last night. Lannan is probably the Nationals worst starting pitcher with a near 6.00 ERA, which was actually brought under 6 last night with his best outing of the year holding the Cubs to just 3 runs and 5 hits in 6 innings.
Tonight the Cubs face an entirely different challenge. Hernandez is throwing the ball probably better than any pitcher in baseball thus far and he is also turning in 8 inning + performances. I think getting Hernandez at +140 is a gift.
Good Luck on all plays.
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Originally Posted by dodger33
