If a team’s payroll means much, then the 2007 World Series trophy is already being engraved with the Boston Red Sox as the winner. But as we know, payroll doesn’t mean much in October, and the Cleveland Indians are out to prove that in the ALCS.
2007 ALCS: Cleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox
Game 1, Friday, Oct 12, 7:00 p.m. (ET) FOX
The two teams that tied for the best record in the majors at 96-66 meet to decide who really is best in the American League for 2007. Boston enters off a sweep of the Angels in their ALDS while Cleveland dispatched the Yankees in four games, the only division series to last longer than three games.
The Red Sox took five of seven from the Indians during the regular season, including a 3-1 record in games played at Fenway. Two of those four games in Boston were of the 1-0 variety a week after the All-Star Game, with the two teams splitting those one-nil decisions.
Many questioned Cleveland manager Eric Wedge’s decision not to start C.C. Sabathia (19-7, 3.21) in Game 4 of the ALDS on Monday night. Nobody is questioning that move now with the portly portsider rested and ready to go in Game 1 tonight. The votes are already in for the AL Cy Young Award, and the two pitchers expected to draw the most action for the honor are set to face off in this one with Josh Beckett (20-7, 3.27) opposing Sabathia.
Cleveland’s southpaw ace was on the losing end of one of those 1-0 scores mentioned earlier, the only time he faced Boston this year. In fact, Crooked Cap -- That is what C.C. stands for, isn’t it? -- has taken a liking to the mound in Fenway allowing just four earned runs over his last three starts in Boston covering 22 innings going back to the 2004 season. However, despite Sabathia pitching well in those three games, the Indians are just 1-2. The Boston lineup has peppered the lefty the last two times they’ve seen him in Cleveland, putting the Indians at 1-4 in Sabathia’s last five starts versus the Red Sox.
Manny Ramirez has absolutely owned the Cleveland pitching star, batting .571 (12-for-21) with four homers and three doubles in his career against Sabathia. Kevin Youkilis (3-7, .429) has also done well, though all three of his hits are singles. David Ortiz (5-18, .278, 1 HR) has done so-so while Jason Varitek, Julio Lugo, J.D. Drew and Dustin Pedroia are a combined 5-34 (.147) with one homer (Varitek). Late word out of Boston is that Drew will not start Game 1, with Bobby Kielty (9-29, .310, 2 HR vs Sabathia) getting the nod in right for Boston.
Beckett is off a fantastic season that saw him win his first nine decisions and sit 12-2 at the All-Star break. Like Sabathia, he was on the wrong end of a 1-0 game between these two clubs, but pitched well overall with a 1-1 record and 1.80 ERA in 15 innings versus the Tribe this year (14 K, 1 BB, 7 Hits). Beckett and the Red Sox are 1-3 in his four career starts versus Cleveland since the right-hander out of Spring, Texas, joined the Beantown Bunch before the 2006 season. The Indians beat him like a rented mule in 2006, scoring 15 runs off Beckett in the 9.2 IP he worked against them. He never faced the Tribe while pitching for the Marlins.
With a 6.56 career ERA versus the Indians, even with the two gems he pitched this year, it’s only natural to find several hitters who have had success against Beckett, Travis Hafner (4-9, .444, HR), Jason Michaels (4-10, .400, HR), Kenny Lofton (3-8, .375) and Jhonny Peralta (3-7, .429) have done well. That quartet has combined for a .455 on-base percentage facing the Boston righty. Grady Sizemore (3-12, .250) and Victor Martinez (2-11, .182, HR) are still trying to figure him out.
Veteran arbiter Randy Marsh has been named the crew chief for this ALCS, his eighth LCS and his 18th postseason assignment overall. The Kentucky native will presumably work the plate in Game 1 and again in Game 7 if the series goes that far. Marsh’s most recent playoff action came as the crew chief for last year’s Twins-Athletics ALDS. Like McClelland who is heading up the NLCS crew, Marsh favored the Under this season with a 19-14-2 record in favor of below the posted totals. Despite leaning to the Under, Marsh isn’t willy-nilly with the strike calls with his 11.8 strikeouts per game this year below average.
Marsh was 1-1 O/U at Fenway this season. He worked one of Beckett’s starts (June 19), with that total coming in below the count. His lone contest calling balls and strikes in Indians game ended in a push.
Autumn has arrived in Boston with Friday’s forecast calling for a chance of morning showers and an afternoon high just tickling into the 60s. First pitch temp should be in the upper 50s and falling off from there to the upper 40s possibly. A 20% chance of rain exists with winds out of the WSW at 10-20 MPH (blowing out to right-center).
The line opened with Boston a -150 favorite. The total was set at 8½ with the Under getting enough early action to boost that price to -120 at some shops.
Talking with a rabid Red Sox fan I know just now. She tells me the weather forecast is slightly different than the report I got late last night. Should be clearer than originally thought, but also a few degrees cooler with West winds in the 10-20 range and gusts up to 30. That should put the wind blowing over the Monstah and across to the RF corner.
I went ahead and took Over 8½ last night when the report was the winds would be blowing more towards right and right-center, plus I got a nice +108 on the price. Conventional wisdom says Under is the way to go with the two aces on the hill, but conventional wisdom doesn't always show up at game time. Hoping the wind shifts back to the WSW like the original forecast.
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